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LATAM Airlines lowers its earnings forecast for 2026 as jet fuel costs rise

LATAM Airlines cut its core earnings forecast for '2026 on Tuesday as higher jet fuel prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East increased costs despite mitigation measures.

The Chilean carrier cut its outlook for full-year adjusted earnings (EBITDA), which includes interest, taxes, and depreciation, to a range between $3.8 billion and $4.2 billion from an earlier forecast of $4.2 to $4.6 billion.

Fuel prices have risen dramatically since U.S. and Israeli'strikes against Iran' disrupted air traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the worst crisis for the airline industry since the COVID-19 Pandemic.

LATAM estimates a $40-million hit to the?first quarter results. Hedging and price lags have softened the burden, but the company warns that fuel expenses will rise by more than $700,000,000 in the second, assuming an average jet fuel cost of $170 a barrel.

LATAM still expects to achieve a low-to-mid single-digit adjusted margin for the second quarter. Revenue measures, capacity adjustments targeted and additional cost control help offset the impact.

It said that "LATAM’s strong balance sheet, liquidity position, and ability to manage uncertainty, while maintaining financial and operational discipline, allows it to absorb fuel volatility, continue investment in the business and manage the business."

In its new financial forecast, the carrier assumes that?jet fuel will cost $170 per barrel during the second and third quarters of the year and $150 for the fourth. This is a significant increase from the $90 per barrel assumption made in previous years.

LATAM has raised its forecast for cost per seat kilometer to between 4.50 to 4.70 cents this year, up from the previous range of 4.30 to 4.00 cents.

The first quarter of Latin America's largest airline saw a net profit of $576m, an increase of 62.1% on the previous year, with revenue up 21.7% at $4.15bn. (Reporting and editing by Sarah Morland; Additional reporting by Inigo Alexandr; Reporting by Gabriel Araujo)

(source: Reuters)