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Fuel relief from the Iran deal may keep airline ticket prices high.

Oil prices are expected to fall after the interim U.S. Iran peace agreement, but it is unlikely that passengers will see any immediate relief. Carriers may be able to maintain fares above those of pre-war.

The U.S. market is the most obvious example. Fuel costs have risen this year, but fare increases are still behind. Domestic seat growth is also limited. This gives airlines the opportunity to use lower fuel costs to rebuild margins, rather than reverse recent price hikes.

U.S. Jet Fuel Spot Prices were $2.85 per gallon on 17th June, down from a high of $4.88 in early April. According to calculations based on fuel consumption, a decline that large would reduce the U.S. airlines' annual fuel bill by over $40 billion.

FARES STILL LAG FUEL As jet-fuel prices rose, U.S. Airlines raised ticket prices, bag fees, schedules and reduced them, but these steps only offset part of the increase in fuel costs.

Jet fuel prices increased three times faster than airfares between January and May, according to industry data. Deutsche Bank estimates that U.S. carriers will only recover 60 cents for every dollar more spent on fuel - $14.4 billion of higher revenues against $24.1 billion of higher fuel costs. Alaska Air reported that it would recover about one-third of the fuel cost increase. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, as well as American Airlines, estimated second-quarter recapture to be between 40% and 50%. JetBlue Airways, Frontier Group and other airlines expect to recover less that half.

United CEO Scott Kirby said that his airline is getting closer to recouping fuel costs through price: "We're going to recover 100% by the end the year."

Raymond James data shows that domestic average fares were up by 34.1% compared to a year ago as of June 8th.

Fuel prices are falling, so the question that needs to be answered is whether or not airlines can maintain their recent increases in fares. Conor Cunningham, Melius Research analyst, said that the ability to maintain prices is crucial. Lower gasoline prices may ease consumer pressure on high fares.

Uneven Pass-Through

Fare relief outside the U.S. is likely to be uneven. Jet fuel prices will not fall immediately because crude oil prices are still low. Until jet fuel prices drop to levels seen at the beginning of the year, airlines may keep their fares steady or even increase them if demand permits, according to Dudley Shanley.

Europe could see a split. Ruairi Cullinane, RBC analyst, said that long-haul fares will be more lenient because airlines are more successful in passing on fuel costs on these routes. Short-haul prices may be firmer, if bookings and demand are supported by the peace agreement. Analysts at HSBC said that China's three largest airlines are facing weak pricing power, and falling aircraft utilization. Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific, however, is in a better position, as higher fares and cargo revenues, along with premium demand, could offset fuel costs. Middle East traffic was disrupted by the war, which is why it's the only exception. Aviation analyst John Strickland said that some airlines could use promotions to gain back traffic. However, fuel is still too expensive to offer widespread discounts. He added that United Arab Emirates airlines could be more aggressive, and get stronger government support.

Earnings Before Discounts

The length of time that prices remain low will determine how much benefit airlines receive. Fuel bills are based on purchases made over time and not spot prices. Even after the most recent declines, jet fuel costs 54% more than it did a year earlier, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Southwest Airlines Chief Operating Office Andrew Watterson summarized the pressure. Watterson replied, "When is fuel going to drop?" when asked by a reporter about Southwest's return to its pre-pandemic profit margins.

As airlines attempt to rebuild their earnings, there is little incentive to reduce fares.

Jefferies estimates that each?5% decrease in its $3 per gallon fuel cost forecast for 2027 would increase projected earnings by 10 to 15% for Delta and Southwest, and as much as 50% for American Airlines.

No Broad Fare War

In previous U.S. fuel cycle, falling oil prices would often trigger a race to increase capacity that drove fares down. These conditions do not exist in most cases. The 'risk' of a wide-scale domestic fare war is being limited by aircraft delivery delays, tight capacity at airports and weaker low cost carriers. Industry data shows that U.S. domestic airlines seats are expected to increase by just 0.4% in the third quarter compared to 4.6% before the latest Middle East tensions.

J.P. Morgan analysts say that limited aircraft deliveries, and the pullback of budget carriers in the United States reduces the risk of "meaningful" capacity creep. This gives airlines an easier time than usual to maintain current pricing.

Fuel prices may not be as important to passengers than the demand for fuel. Shanley stated that the power of the consumer is a major factor. Reporting by Rajesh Singh in Chicago, Alessandro Parodi and Joanna Plucinska from London; Additional reporting in Hong Kong by Julie Zhu; Editing by Jamie Freed).

(source: Reuters)