Latest News

Maguire: Indonesia's coal-export ban will shake up Asia's energy mix.

Utilities in Asia are scrambling for a solution to a possible shortage of critical coal after Indonesia, the world's top coal producer, halted exports to protest government plans to limit production.

A coal miner in Indonesia said that long-term contracts will be kept, but spot shipments are "limited" until a decision on government quotas is finalized. The official warned that even long-term contracts could be at risk due to unforeseen circumstances.

Indonesia exported half of global thermal coal in 2025 and was the largest coal supplier for many of the world’s biggest coal importers, including China, India and the Philippines.

Indonesia's government has proposed production cuts and quotas to increase export prices and revenue.

Indonesian mining companies have also threatened to lay off workers and close mines in response to any forced production cuts. This has pushed the government to find a compromise to avoid a complete shutdown of mining and exports.

The authorities have shown that they are willing to be tough with the mining industry before. In 2022, coal exports were briefly suspended due to a lack of coal at local power stations.

The suspension of coal exports triggered a sharp rise in global coal prices. Benchmark futures for Asian seaborne thermal coke have already risen 9%, reaching their highest level in more than a year.

As key importers try to secure replacement supplies from other exporters or trading houses, further price increases in the global coal markets are likely.

WIDE SPAN

Kpler data shows that 16 different countries imported at least 1 million metric tonnes of Indonesian thermal coke by 2025.

This group of countries includes the top coal-consuming nations in the world, from Brunei and China to other nearby countries.

Some countries, such as China and India, are more reliant than others on Indonesian coal supplies.

Several Southeast Asia and South Asia countries are dependent almost exclusively on coal imports and use coal to generate electricity.

Additionally, any sustained decline in Indonesian coal volumes on the global markets will have far reaching impacts as Asian utilities, which depend on coal to produce over half their electricity, are already under pressure from regional heating demand.

In a Pinch

Philippines, Bangladesh and Vietnam, as well as Malaysia, are the most likely to be affected by the Indonesian coal disruption.

According to Kpler, the Philippines will be the largest importer of Indonesian coal by 2025, securing 98% of their total coal imports.

Data from the energy think tank Ember show that coal was the leading source of electricity for the Philippines last year. It accounted around 57% of the utility's electricity output.

In Indonesia, Bangladesh imported more than 90% of its coal last year. The coal share in Bangladesh's electricity mix reached record levels last year.

Malaysia and Vietnam will import more than half their annual coal from Indonesia by 2025. They also depend on coal to provide 40% or more their electricity needs.

FARTHER AFIELD

Due to the configuration of coastal power stations, any prolonged stoppage in Indonesian coal exports would have an impact on markets that are less dependent on imports such as China and India.

Many of the major coal-fired plants in China or India are located near major bulk commodities import ports. They therefore source their coal primarily from international suppliers, rather than the domestic market.

If the international coal market rallies, these power plants will be able to source more coal on the domestic market. However, they may incur higher transport costs because trucks and rail systems would replace bulk vessel deliveries.

This means that, even though the Philippines and Bangladesh are likely to be the first utilities to react to Indonesia's export ban, all coal plants will be affected as the markets begin to price in volume reductions from the world's largest supplier.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

You like this article? Check it out

Open Interest

Follow ROI on Twitter for the latest global financial news. Follow ROI on

You can find us on LinkedIn.

Listen to the song

Morning Bid daily podcast

Spotify

Or the

. Subscribe to the podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)