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US retailers rush to import holiday goods, fearing disruptions and strikes

Retailers are preparing for a rush of summer imports into the United States, as they prepare to face a possible strike of port workers. They also want to avoid the ongoing disruptions in shipping caused by attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Container imports and rates of freight surged in the month of July, signaling a peak season earlier than usual for an industry that deals with about 80% global trade.

Analysts predict that July will be the peak month for U.S. retail, which accounts for half of this trade. August should be nearly as strong, they said.

To attract customers who shop earlier in the season, companies that import toys and home goods have offered holiday promotions. Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policies at the National Retail Federation (NRF), said that retailers don't like to be caught off guard.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at pricing platform Xeneta, stated that many shippers have expedited orders for holiday goods. Some even put Christmas items in the water as early May.

Experts said that the influx of goods is not due to consumer spending which has been held back by high interest rates and stubborn inflation. It is more of a precautionary measure against a possible U.S. Port Strike and the late November 28th date for Thanksgiving, which would have shortened the peak season from Christmas Eve to the end of the year.

According to Descartes Systems Group, the supply chain software company, U.S. container exports in July were at their third highest monthly volume ever with 2.6 millions 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs). This is up 16.8% compared to a year ago, largely due to record-breaking imports from China.

The NRF's executive committee includes Target, Macy's, and Saks CEOs. It also anticipates strong imports in August. Walmart, America's biggest container shipper, will report its second-quarter earnings in August.

After talks between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance stalled, retailers are worried about a possible strike on Oct. 1, at seaports from Maine to Texas.

Maersk outlined on Friday the potential consequences of a strike disruption in U.S. port.

Maersk stated in an update on the U.S. Market that even a week-long shutdown could cause significant delays and backlogs to increase with every passing day.

According to Xeneta, the non-contract spot rate for a container traveling from the Far East up to the U.S. West Coast jumped by 144% between April and July, but has since dropped 17%. Similar trends have been seen on container routes going to the U.S. East Coast, northern Europe, and the Mediterranean.

Sand stated that "we should see the spot markets fall even further. However, the decline will not be as rapid. It is still going be a painful year-end for shippers."

TARIFF THREAT

In the first half 2024, container imports to the United States were largely driven by industrial products. This was partly because of looming tariffs for exports from China. The administration of President Joe Biden imposed new tariffs on a number of goods that will go into effect later this summer.

Jason Miller, professor at Michigan State University’s Business School and expert in supply chain management, said that solar cells and EV batteries are the main beneficiaries of tariffs.

Biden has kept the tariffs in place that his predecessor Donald Trump had put into effect. Donald Trump has, as the Republican nominee for 2024, threatened to increase tariffs even further if he wins the White House. Miller stated that despite this threat, companies have not responded in a big way. Maersk, a global shipper, said that there may be a pull-back in demand before the November U.S. elections due to tariff uncertainty.

Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc stated this week that there was a general consensus on the fact that the United States has entered into a more competitive relationship with China, and the outcome of the elections will not affect the relationship.

(source: Reuters)