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As funds withdraw, physical buyers of copper win the battle.

Investors who have fled the copper market will likely be sidelined by the physical players for several months. They can expect the demand to decline in China, the world's largest consumer of copper and elsewhere over the next few months. This could put pressure on the prices.

Fund buying frenzy based on a predicted shortage of copper relative demand sparked an upsurge on the London Metal Exchange this year. Prices soared as momentum traders joined the fray, pushing prices to a new record high in May above $11,100 per metric ton.

The LME was also used by commodity traders to fulfill their obligations to sell copper at COMEX (part of CME Group).

Copper has fallen nearly 20% in the last year as a result of persistently low manufacturing activity. Consumers have put their purchases on hold, and producers and traders are delivering excess metal to LME registered warehouses.

The market has reached a surplus earlier than anticipated, according to Macquarie analyst Alice Fox. She expects copper surpluses in the amount of 265,000 metric tonnes this year, 305,000 in 2025, and 436,000 by 2026.

Fox stated that prices could recover in the fourth-quarter if exchange stock is reduced.

Fox added that the rally could be short lived if global demand does not increase.

BURNT FINGERS

LME copper fell to $8,714 per ton at the beginning of August, a 4-1/2-month low. Fears about a U.S. economic recession and concerns that Federal Reserve had kept interest rates high were exacerbated by soaring inventories.

China is estimated to consume more than half the global refined copper supply, which amounts to around 26 million tonnes this year.

Copper is used in China primarily for the wiring of household products that are exported. Copper demand is facing headwinds from a slump in the housing market and China's stagnant industry.

If you take out the exports, China's domestic demand looks anaemic. "There is no shortage of copper," said BNP Paribas Analyst David Wilson. He expects an excess between 150,000 to 200,000 tons in this year.

Fabricators of products have destocked. You will not restock aggressively if you are a producer and uncertain about the outlook of demand and exports.

The International Copper Study Group's (ICSG) data showed a surplus of 416,000 tonnes of copper between January and may, exposing the notion of large deficits in this year.

The copper inventories registered at the LME (a market of final resort) have reached a five-year-high above 300,000 tonnes, an increase of around 200% from mid-May.

The majority of the metals were delivered to LME storage facilities in Korea and Taiwan. The metal was delivered by Chinese producers who were unable to sell on their domestic market, and wanted to benefit from LME prices higher than those of the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The total copper stock in the LME is now 78% in South Korea's Busan, Gwangyang, and Taiwan's Kaohsiung. This compares to 31,925 tons in May 16 and 31% in May.

Last week, the threat of a long strike at BHP’s Escondida Copper Mine in Chile, which will produce nearly 5% of all copper produced in the world by 2023, raised fears about a tightening of supplies. However, a settlement reached on Sunday has dispelled these concerns.

The longer-term deficits are expected as the structural changes in copper consumption due to new technologies related to AI and energy transition accelerate.

Gary Nagle, Glencore's CEO, said at a briefing that "we still see copper as a backbone for decarbonisation." "Spending on AI, renewable infrastructure, and data centres is copper-intensive." Reporting by Pratima Deai, editing by Veronica Brown & Kirby Donovan

(source: Reuters)