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Russian fuel exports will fall by 2024 due to drone attacks and bans adding pressure

Sources in the industry said that Russian exports of oil products by sea fell by almost 10 percent in 2024, after Ukrainian drone attacks damaged refineries. Higher funding costs as well as a government ban on gasoline exports added to the pressure from Western sanctions.

Since the West imposed sanctions in 2022 over Moscow's military action in Ukraine, Russia has tried to access new markets, particularly in Asia and South America.

Russia's oil companies have to increase crude exports to maintain revenue due to lower fuel exports. However, this option is limited to India, China, and Turkey who still purchase Russian crude despite the sanctions and own their large refineries.

Two market sources, citing data, said that total Russian fuel exports, including jet kerosene, diesel, fuel oil and naphtha, were 113.7 million tons in 2018. This is a 9.1% drop from 2023.

If the crude oil conversion rate of 7.33 barrels to tons is used, then 2024's export figure will be approximately 2.3 millions barrels per day. It was unknown the exact breakdown of all products, which each use a different conversion rate.

Calculations based on market data showed that Russia's total oil processing dropped to 267 million tons (5.4 millions bpd), its lowest level since 2012. This was due to unplanned downtimes and lower refining margins.

DRONE ATTACKS

Ukraine has attacked several Russian fuel and refinery facilities. These include Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery and Gazprom’s Omsk oil refining facility in western Siberia. Also, Slavyansk, Novoshakhtinsk, and Rosneft’s Black Sea oil and refinery at Tuapse.

Market sources also said that the refineries were under pressure from falling fuel prices, increasing interest rates, and Russia's ban of gasoline exports.

Data showed that the total oil exports through the Baltic ports Primorsk Vysotsk St. Petersburg Ust-Luga dropped by 9% from the previous years to 61.96 millions tons in 2024.

Fuel exports through Russia's Black Sea port and Azov Sea port fell by 10% to 42.75 millions tons.

Market sources said that exports through the Russian Black Sea Port of Tuapse dropped by a third, to 9,1 million tons, due to disruptions after drone attacks and suspensions in processing at Rosneft’s refinery.

Data showed that exports via the Black Sea port Novorossiisk increased by 4%, to 19 million tonnes.

Fuel exports from Far East ports dropped 3% since 2023, to 7.97 millions tons.

Sources and calculations revealed that Russia's seaborne exports of oil products rose 10.8% on a month-to-month basis in December, to 10.37 millions tons. This included 4.17 million tonnes loaded through Black Sea and Azov Sea port, 5.49million tons via Baltic Sea ports and 637,000 tons via Russias Far East. (Reporting and Editing by Alexander Smith).

(source: Reuters)