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After US sanctions, volatility surges in China's oil futures following Yangshan port

The Chinese crude oil and fuel oil futures market has been volatile this week due to concerns that U.S. sanctions against an oil storage facility in East China could prevent the physical delivery of contracts.

State Department sanctions were imposed on Qingdao Port Haiye Dongjiakou Oil Products and Yangshan Shengang International Petroleum Storage and Transportation, both in Zhejiang Province. Both companies handled imports of Iranian crude oil on tankers that had been previously sanctioned by the U.S.

Chinese majors, as well as international trading companies, store fuel oil in bonded delivery tanks that are linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange for the settlement of futures contracts at Yangshan.

In a recent note, analysts at Guotai Junan Futures stated that "the physical turnover at this location may encounter difficulty. This would result in a decrease in deliverable cargo and storage capacity available on the futures markets."

The most actively traded contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was the October fuel oil contract. It rose in the following three trading sessions.

The contract rose 4% on Monday to 2,878 Yuan ($402.35) per metric ton, with a 162 Yuan difference between high and low for the day. This is the largest gap since the 24th of June, when the global energy markets fell following the ceasefire during the Israel-Iran air campaign.

According to LSEG, a total of 842,000 contracts for October were traded on that day. This is up from 630,000 contracts for August 22 and 348 000 contracts on August 21.

Two fuel oil traders in China said that the volatility was higher because some investors were betting on the possibility of deliverability problems and traders who held short positions (which would require them to deliver fuel when the contract expires) unwound their positions by purchasing futures.

Analysts at Guotai Futures said that if no new delivery warehouses or warehouses of receipts were to appear in the near future, the (fuel oil) prices would continue to be relatively strong.

Yangshan Shengang also serves as a delivery location for the crude futures contract of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange.

For the four sessions leading up to August 26 the most active crude contract traded on the INE for October delivery gained 3.3%, reaching 497.70 yuan (US$69.58) a metric ton. The contract fell 2.3% on Wednesday with a gap of 15.30 yuan between the highs and lows, the largest since August 4.

A crude trader in China said that the market is concerned about taking delivery of oil from Yangshan Storage, which holds oil tied to INE contract.

Requests for comments on the increase in volatility were not responded to by either SHFE or INE.

When contacted on Thursday, a representative from Yangshan Shengang refused to comment.

Investors are waiting to hear from the SHFE about the impact of the sanctions on contract deliveries at Yangshan, according to a trader on the SHFE market.

A trader in the market said that the price of marine fuel at the two key ports of Zhoushan and Shanghai has risen because sellers raised their prices due to the volatility.

Data from sources revealed that the premiums for bunker fuel delivered to container ships, and other vessels in Shanghai and Zhoushan, rose to around $30 per ton compared to Singapore cargo prices for both high sulphur and lower sulphur cargoes. This is nearly double what they were at the beginning of August. Sources: ($1 = 7.1529 Chinese Yuan Renminbi). Reporting by Chen Aizhu and Jeslyn Liu; Editing by Florence Tan, Christian Schmollinger.

(source: Reuters)