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Why the Houthis, who are Iran-aligned, could have a greater impact on the oil market than previously thought

The Houthis, who are aligned with Iran in Yemen, announced on Monday they would bar ships from the Red Sea that were linked to Israel after Israel re-launched its military strikes?on Iran. This has added to global concerns over shipping and energy flow.

Here's why and what it means for the Iran war and global energy crisis.

How big is the risk to global energy markets?

Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz after?Israel attacked and the United States on February 28?has disrupted the majority of oil and energy exports out of the Gulf. This has caused a major energy crisis and pushed up prices.

Saudi Arabia responded by diverting 70% of its daily crude oil exports to Yanbu, a Red Sea port.

This has helped to lower the global oil price.

A sustained disruption of Red Sea shipping by the Houthis, including possible attacks on ports or shipping, could be a major problem.

When the Houthis attacked Red Sea shipping in 2023, Gulf Oil exports flowed freely. Cargoes were diverted away from the Red Sea but not stopped. The cargo is being loaded in the Red Sea this time.

According to a Houthi source, preventing Israeli ships transiting the Red Sea was "a first?step"; however, if the escalation continues, the group will stop all ships headed towards Israel and take other measures.

The group that attacked the shipping during the Gaza War stated its target as any vessel owned by any company using Israeli ports. Its attacks on these ships discouraged most companies from using this route.

Who are the HOUTHIS?

In the 1990s the Houthis were a military, religious and political movement that fought guerrilla warfare against the Sanaa government.

The Zaydi sect is a Shi'a Islam group. After the Arab Spring of 2011, they strengthened their ties with Iran, and took advantage of the instability in order to seize the capital city, thereby sabotaging a Gulf-backed plan for political transition.

Saudi Arabia, along with its Arab allies, launched a military operation months later in order to restore the government that was ousted and remove a group they viewed as an Iranian proxy. Iran is Riyadh’s arch rival.

The Houthis, as the?Yemeni civil war stalemated, attacked Saudi Arabian oil installations and other infrastructures in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles.

The truce agreed between Yemen's warring parties in 2022 has mostly held.

AREN'T THE HOUTHIS IRANIAN PROXIES?

Iran supports the Houthis in its regional "Axis of Resistance", including Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Iraqi Shiite militias. However, its ties to the Yemeni movement is less clear than those with these other groups.

Houthis don't recognise Iran's supreme religious leader as their ultimate authority, like Hezbollah or Iraqi groups. Although ideologically aligned to Iran, its motivations are mostly domestic.

The U.S. claims that Iran has armed and funded the Houthis, with Hezbollah's help. The Houthis, however, deny that they are Iranian proxy forces and claim to develop their own weapons.

What happened when the HOUTHIS attacked RED SEA SHIPS before?

The Houthis, who claim to be supporting Palestinians, began shooting at Israel after the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 and Israel's destructive campaign in Gaza.

The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea disrupted shipping worldwide, forcing Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and other major companies, to divert through Africa, a much longer, more costly route.

The U.S. led mission to restore free navigation on the Red Sea involved repeated strikes against Houthi targets, and a defensive offensive that destroyed hundreds of missiles and drones.

Some Houthi attacks continued through the summer of last year, but only ended completely in October with the Gaza ceasefire.

WHAT HAS THEY DONE IN THE LATEST WAR WITH IRAN?

The Houthis, on the other hand, have been relatively quiet.

Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the group, said on March 5, "Our fingers are ready to trigger at any time should circumstances warrant it."

Esmaeil Quaani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, said on June 1, that the Houthis might join the war.

Before this week, however, the group was only involved in a few drone and missile attacks on Israel that took place between late March and earlyApril.

It is not clear why the Houthis are so quiet.

The Iranians and they may have used the threat of a new major energy route closing to scare Israel and the United States into not escalating further.

Houthis might also be less concerned about Iran's security compared to other regional allies.

The group might not want to anger its wealthy, powerful neighbour Saudi Arabia or risk reigniting conflict in the country. (Compiled by Angus McDowall, edited by Jason Neely).

(source: Reuters)