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Russian oil exports to the sea fell in May, according to industry data.
According to industry sources, Russia's seaborne product exports dropped by 0.2% daily in May compared to April. This equates to a drop of?8.016 millions metric tons. While the 'continued Ukrainian drone attacks on key ports and major refineries led to a sharp decline in oil product loadings at Russia's southern port, this was offset by an increase in fuel exports from Baltic terminals. Kyiv intensified its attacks on Russian energy installations in the last few months as peace talks to end Ukraine's conflict failed to progress. In May, drones targeted a number of Russia's largest refineries, including Lukoil's NORSI refinery as well as Rosneft Ryazan and Surgutneftegaz Kirishi refinery. The fuel production in Russian refineries decreased last month. However, the exports of oil products were boosted by an increase in prices worldwide due to the Iran War and a stockpile of oil product after drone strikes disrupted port terminals. Sources say that oil product exports from Russia’s Baltic ports - Primorsk Vysotsk St. Petersburg Ust-Luga -- rose 11.3% month-on-month in May to 3.82 millions tons as loadings recovered partially after earlier suspensions due to attacks on key terminals. The data showed that fuel exports via Black Sea and Azov Sea ports fell 19.7% from April to 3,03 million?tons last month. In April and May, Ukrainian drones repeatedly attacked the Russian Black Sea port Tuapse as well as the nearby Rosneft owned refinery. This led to the suspension of fuel production and export loads. In May, oil product exports from Arctic ports Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Nome, grew to 294,600 tons, up from just 104,300 a month earlier. The data also showed that fuel exports from Russia's Far East ports increased by 21.3% in May compared to April, reaching 875,200 tonnes. Hugh Lawson, Editor and Reporter (Reporting)
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Fuel stations run out of fuel in Crimea after a new night of Ukrainian drone attacks
Witnesses reported that fuel stations on the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula were running out of gasoline as the Ukrainian campaign to cut off supply lines was intensifying. Witnesses in Sevastopol (the largest city on the peninsula) reported that there was no fuel available at local petrol stations. Supplies were struggling to keep up even with a recent rationing scheme. Another said there was a queue in Yevpatoriya's resort town outside the only petrol station that worked. Ukraine is intensifying drone attacks on supply lines to the peninsula that Russia captured from Kyiv back in 2014. Local authorities have implemented fuel rationing regimes. Some foodstuffs are also in short supply. According to data collected by. Only Crimea and 2 regions in Siberia have confirmed shortages. Most other regions say that the situation is under?control and that some disruptions are caused by panic purchasing. Moscow denied that there was any problem with fuel supplies. Sberbank, a state-owned lender, has warned that the rising cost of fuel poses an inflationary risk to the Russian economy. TRUCKS CAN'T BRING FUEL TO CITY The Russian-backed Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev announced on Wednesday that the plans to distribute rationed fuel had been delayed due to trucks being unable bring the fuel into city following recent Ukrainian strikes on supply routes. Fuel is mainly delivered by rail and road to Crimea via the Russian territories in the north that Moscow took over in 2022. Drone attacks have disrupted these routes more and more. Fuel was previously delivered to Crimea via barge from an oil terminal located in the city of Feodosia. However, supplies have been cut since Ukraine attacked the terminal in April. The governor of Sevastopol who is installed in Moscow said that 33 drones were downed by Ukrainian drones overnight. The Russian-backed Governor of the?Moscow-held part Kherson region which borders Crimea on the north said that Ukraine has targeted bridges and caused some damage. Kyiv struck also in?southern Russia over night, according to authorities, causing damages?including an fire at the Afipsky refinery which has been extinguished. The Adygea governor also reported damage to civil infrastructure in the area. Reporting by Felix Light in Sevastopol, Yevpatoriya; Editing by Alex Richardson
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Indian crewed tanker is suspected to be the third US attack this week on a tanker off Oman.
The Indian shipping ministry confirmed that all 20 crew members are'safe' after a suspected U.S. attack on the 'asphalt-tanker Jalveer, off Oman. This follows two other similar strikes in the region this week. Three Indian sailors were killed in a U.S. attack on the Settebello oil tanker off Oman one day earlier. British maritime risk management firm Vanguard? said that the Jalveer, a vessel flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau, sent out a distress signal after an engine room fire and a funnel caught on fire. Officials from the Indian Shipping Ministry said that the crew was being evacuated with coordination of the "Royal Navy of Oman". Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the Indian Foreign Ministry, told reporters that the U.S. Navy attacked the ship. The cause of the fire was not disclosed, but it is likely that the U.S. Ambrey, a British maritime security firm, said that the blockade of Iranian ports was likely to be responsible for this fire. U.S. Central Command did not have any immediate comments on the incident. If confirmed, this would be the third Indian tanker that has been hit by U.S. forces in the last week. On Monday, the Marivex oil-tanker was destroyed using precision munitions. The U.S. started a blockade of Iran related shipping on April 13, after Iran severely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major oil and gas shipping route. U.S. Centcom stated that the Marivex & Settebello failed t follow directions when?U.S. The blockade was enforced by U.S. forces. Centcom reported on Wednesday that U.S. Forces enforcing the 'blockade' had disabled eight non-compliant ships, redirected another 134, and allowed 42 humanitarian aid vessels to pass since 'the blockade began. The ships being targeted are Iranian vessels and others that are?carrying Iranian goods, such as so-called Shadow Fleet Tankers. These vessels, usually older and without Western insurance, transport sanctioned oil under the flags of different nations in order to conceal their true ownership and cargo. The Marivex tanker was the only one among the three that was subject to U.S. sanctions. Reporting by Jonathan Saul and Nidhi verma; editing by Jason Neely
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BHP workers in Australia's key iron ore export hub support the strike by hundreds
Two unions reported 'on Thursday that hundreds of BHP workers in Port Hedland, Western Australia, voted to strike, increasing the risk of iron ore shipments being disrupted from one of the largest export hubs in the world. Electrical Trades Unions (ETU) reported that 100% of their 100 members who participated in the vote approved work stoppages between 30 minutes and 24 hours. These could start within a few days. A spokesperson for the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWU), said that more than 100 members voted in favor of strike action with 89.4%. These votes follow months of negotiations with BHP - the world's largest listed mining company - to agree on a labor agreement. Workers were seeking better pay and conditions. BHP didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Port Hedland, Australia's largest iron ore loading port, is among the largest in the world. The mine is connected to several BHP mines located in the Pilbara area and is used by BHP for all its iron ore exported in Western Australia. The ETU stated that it wanted to ensure parity between workers at the port who have the same skills and experiences, after being hired under "wildly different" individual contracts. Adam Woodage, State Secretary for Western Australia, said: "We've been trying to negotiate for over six months but BHP has been obstructive, so we don't even have anyone with whom to negotiate." The union said that workers can begin industrial action after giving five days notice. Steve McCartney, AMWU's state secretary, said that workers had unsuccessfully negotiated with the company for seven months. He said that the members had?had it." "They?demand to be heard, and they?demand a fair deal." "More 100 workers are fighting for fair wages and working conditions in the face of a crisis caused by rising costs of living."
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Iran is seeking funds as US negotiations edge towards an interim agreement, sources say
Three?Iranian officials and an?European official? have told?that efforts to reach a 'preliminary deal between Iran and the U.S. has intensified. Both sides launched strikes on Thursday as they discussed a mechanism to release frozen Iranian funds. Sources said Iran and the United States are still exchanging messages about the details of the memorandum. Iranian sources stated that a political agreement had been reached. However, some issues still needed to be discussed in more detail. For example, the mechanism for releasing tens and tens billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenue frozen in foreign bank accounts. One of the Iranian sources said that Iran wants 6-12 billion dollars of its frozen funds released to Tehran. Washington, however, wants to release funds in phases for humanitarian aid and does not want to return any funds to Iran. The Iranian sources stated that the clerical regime's priority is to ensure its own survival. This means it does not prioritize a comprehensive agreement, but rather a framework which can'restore minimum breathing space?for the institution?by unlocking their frozen assets and ending war. (Writing and editing by Alison Williams; Parisa Hafezi)
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Three more LNG tanks leave Strait of Hormuz
Ship-tracking data showed that three more liquefied gas tankers left the Strait of Hormuz without their transponders and were heading to destinations in 'Asia. However, it is unclear when exactly they made this 'transit. The United States and Iran exchanged air attacks on Thursday for the second day in a row, with U.S. president Donald Trump threatening further?strikes until Tehran accepts a peace agreement and Washington claiming it 'fired on an Iranian oil vessel. QatarEnergy-controlled tankers Lebrethah (left) and?Rasheeda (right) were last spotted west of the Strait on June 1, and April 30, respectively. They carried?cargoes that had been loaded at Ras Laffan. On June 10, the?tankers reappeared?on ship tracking data. Lebrethah is headed to Pakistan after loading on May 22. Rasheeda, which has been transporting a cargo from February 27, is now nearing Southeast Asia. On June 10, a third LNG tanker Marigold, which is managed by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company also appeared on ship tracking data. It was last seen east of the Strait and ballasting on May 1. Then, it reappeared after reloading cargo from Das Island. It is indicating it's heading for 'India. ADNOC and QatarEnergy didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Since the end of February, when the war began, 12 LNG cargoes, including Lebrethah and Rasheeda, have left the Strait of Hormuz.
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India reports an incident with a vessel near Oman
The Indian Embassy in Oman reported that India had?reported a ship incident off the port of Shinas in Oman earlier Thursday. This was a day after a U.S. led attack on another vessel killed three Indian seafarers. This was the third incident of this kind in the last week. The U.S. military claimed to have attacked MT Marivex, and?Settebello. Both vessels were manned by Indian seafarers. The Indian Embassy in Oman has not specified if there were Indian seafarers aboard the vessel that was involved in the incident on Thursday. The Indian Embassy in Oman posted on social media that it was "closely monitoring the situation" and was working with local authorities to get more details. According to the Forward Seamen’s Union of India, the vessel involved in this latest incident is MT JALVEE. Sarbananda S. Sonowal, India’s shipping minister said earlier that three missing Indian seafarers aboard the Settebello have died. He said: "Three?Indian sailors?originally reported missing? are now confirmed to be dead after their bodies were located and identified." A source in the Indian government said that New Delhi summoned U.S. deputy chief of mission after lodging a "strong complaint" regarding?the strike. The source refused to identify himself, citing confidentiality. Reporting by HritamMukherjee and NidhiVerma; Editing by YPRajesh
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UK watchdog investigates Ryanair regarding fees for parents and children to sit together
The British Competition Watchdog has launched an investigation into the European budget airline 'Ryanair' on Thursday, over the fees parents have to pay in order to travel with their children. The Competition and Markets Authority is investigating whether Ryanair’s mandatory family seat charge, which costs around PS8 ($10.70 each way), may force parents to pay for the airline to meet its own obligations regarding child safety and disabilities under aviation regulations. The regulator stated that the investigation was focused on whether Ryanair's terms of contract were "unfair" under consumer law. It added that the probe had only just begun and it has not yet reached a conclusion as to whether or not Ryanair broke the law. Ryanair didn't immediately respond to an?invitation for comment made outside of its regular working hours.
Bousso: Reopening of the ROI-Hormuz could be OPEC’s downfall
Saudi Arabia and its neighbours in the Gulf will celebrate the eventual reopening of Strait of Hormuz. But the ensuing oil flood could erode OPEC’s fragile grip on the markets. The Iran War and the closing of the vital waterway, through which nearly one fifth of world oil and gas passed before the conflict, have dramatically reduced the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and shifted the industry's center of gravity away. Riyadh has limited options to counter these changes. The strait is not expected to reopen anytime soon, and it's unclear what the conditions will be. Iran wants to maintain some control over the waterway, even though U.S. president Donald Trump is insistent that it should be returned to pre-war conditions.
Despite the uncertainty, it seems that one thing is certain: Saudi Arabia will try to maximize oil exports in order to fill the huge fiscal holes caused by the conflict. According to ROI calculations, the loss of approximately 13 million barrels of Middle East exports each day - 13% of global supplies - since February 28, 2014 represents over $80 billion of lost revenue. The damage to energy infrastructure including refineries and storage facilities as well as tankers, liquefied gas plants and tankers, is estimated at tens or even hundreds of billions.
There will be a huge incentive to move fast, given the pent-up energy demand of major importers in Asia. Asian governments and refineries drastically reduced consumption and inventories during the conflict. Stockpiles will be rebuilt by many. Demand and supply will not necessarily recover at the same pace.
It could take several months before Middle East producers are able to restart the production of?11 million bpd. Uncertainty also exists about how much of the demand has actually been destroyed, and how much is simply being postponed. Geopolitical worries will likely lead to an uneven, stop and start recovery that puts pressure on supply chains and increases volatility in oil prices. Historically, these conditions would have played into OPEC’s strengths. OPEC and its allies have intervened repeatedly to stabilize markets in past crises, by adjusting production. The COVID-19 pandemic is a prime example, where coordinated cuts and?increases were used to help steer prices through extreme price swings.
The cartel appears to be less capable this time.
OPEC STRUCTURED AND FRAGMENTED by war. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, its production fell to 20 million bpd on average in April from 31 millions in February. OPEC has seen its share of the global production drop to an all-time record low of 22%. The UAE's decision to leave the group in April, to pursue their own production strategy, dealt a major blow to both OPEC cohesion and Saudi Authority. The strain is compounded by Russia's inability, due to repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on its energy infrastructure as part of Kyiv’s campaign to weaken Moscow’s war economy, to increase exports or act as a pivotal supplier within the broader OPEC+ Alliance. In this context, the reopening Hormuz may put Riyadh into a difficult position. OPEC members who are desperate for revenue will likely compete fiercely to gain market share. They'll push more barrels on the market, and put heavy pressure on prices. Riyadh may struggle to convince them that they need to reduce production in order to maintain prices.
Saudi Arabia's wartime actions could further undermine its influence. Riyadh took advantage of the price spike during the war by diverting over 60% of its exports to the Red Sea. This will make it more difficult for Riyadh to convince producers like Iraq and Kuwait to reduce output when full access to the Red Sea is restored. Recent OPEC policy signals confirm the current direction. The group decided on Sunday to increase output for a fourth month in a row.
At this pace, OPEC+ will be able to completely unwind the 1,65 million bpd in cuts that were agreed upon in 2023, at least on the paper side, by September.
The road to oversupply is bumpy. The balance of risk points to an oversupply. According to Rystad analyst Jorge Leon, the return of OPEC barrels along with sustained high production from countries?such as the U.S. Brazil and Venezuela, could leave the market with a surplus of 5 million bpd after a complete reopening the Hormuz. It is important to note that producers outside of the Gulf, such as some OPEC member countries, have strengthened their market positions over the crisis. This should make it more difficult for Gulf producers without aggressive pricing to recover lost market share. The producer group has demonstrated a willingness over the years to engage in "painful" price wars. But if you start one now, following the most disruptive shock to supply in decades, it could spiral out of control, hastening the demise of OPEC.
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(source: Reuters)