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China's record hydro and solar cut coal power during heatwave: Kemp

China's electrical power consumption smashed the previous record in July as a prolonged heatwave settled over major load centres, specifically in the Yangtze Delta, driving a massive increase in airconditioning and refrigeration.

Unprecedented load was fulfilled by record output from hydro and solar, ensuring coal-fired generation fell somewhat compared with the same duration a year previously, showcasing the rapid change of the system.

Total generation increased to a record 883 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in July from 846 billion kWh in the very same month in 2023 and 806 billion kWh in 2022, according to the National Bureau of Data.

Much of the boost was down to an extended period of incredibly hot weather in eastern regions, specifically province-level areas pushing the lower reaches of the Yangtze, consisting of Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui.

Chartbook: China electrical power generation

Daily temperature levels at Nanjing in the Yangtze Delta balanced 30.4 ° C compared to 28.7 ° C a year previously and about 2.5 ° C. above the long-lasting seasonal norm.

Nanjing temperature levels have actually been above normal in 42 of 50 days. because the start of July, pressing airconditioning and. refrigeration demand to a record.

The delta is home to 237 million individuals, 17% of the. country's overall population, and represent 24% of nationwide. economic output, making it the largest load centre.

As a result, regional heatwaves can drive peak usage. across the whole nationwide transmission network and draw in. power from provinces to the west and south.

A number of cities and provinces in the delta called for. preservation throughout the heatwave to lower electricity need.

However in general the transmission system coped because record. intake was more than matched by huge boosts in hydro and. solar generation in other parts of China.

RECORD HYDRO

Nationwide hydro generation increased by 45 billion kWh. compared with the very same month a year earlier while output from. solar farms was up by 10 billion kWh with a smaller sized boost. from wind farms of 5 billion kWh.

The result was that thermal generation, practically all from. coal, decreased by 25 billion kWh compared to July 2023,. in spite of record electrical power demand.

Unprecedented quantities of hydro power were sent from. dams on the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze eastwards to. the delta.

Hydro generation rose to a record 166 billion kWh in July. from 121 billion kWh in the very same month a year previously, easily. passing the previous seasonal record of 146 billion in 2022 and. 2020.

After the dry spell lasting from the middle of 2022 to the end. of 2023, abundant monsoon rains allowed generators to make full. usage of freshly commissioned waterfall dams on the Yangtze system for. the very first time.

Even now, enormous volumes of water are still taken. behind dams and in seasonal reservoirs for flood control, which. is likely to sustain hydro generation at record seasonal levels. through August and into September.

SOLAR SURGE

Electric reliability during the summer season peak was likewise. ensured by unprecedented deployment of solar farms and record. generation from solar power.

Solar generation surged to a record 36 billion kWh in July. from 26 billion kWh in the exact same month in 2023 and 21 billion kWh. in 2022.

Solar generation has been driven by a big boost in. set up capability, which has more than doubled considering that completion of. 2021.

The figures do not consist of increasing quantities of. self-generation by residential and business users from roof. photovoltaic panels.

COAL DOMINANT

Extra generation from hydro and solar reduced the system's. dependence on fossil fuels during the summertime peak but it stayed. very high.

Thermal manufacturers still accounted for 65% of all generation. in July below 71% in 2023 and 73% a decade ago.

Thermal generation might be declining relative to other. sources of electrical energy but it has actually still grown in outright terms. over the last years because overall need has increased so fast.

Thermal generation totaled up to 454 billion kWh in July, down. somewhat from a record 471 billion kWh in 2015's drought,. but up by a third from 340 billion kWh in 2014.

EFFICIENCY DRIVE

Most of China's best websites for run-of-river dams have been. developed, restricting additional gains in hydro output, though there. is increasing interest in pumped storage.

The government prepares more deployment of solar and wind to. increase renewable generation and there are rapidly increasing. amounts of small roof solar which will cut net load on. the transmission network.

Nuclear stays a small part of the system, accounting for. 5% of generation in 2023, though the government has authorized a. big reactor building program which will improve it substantially. by the end of the decade.

However, additional reductions in coal combustion depend upon. major enhancements in efficiency among generators and users to. lower coal-firing and sluggish load development to permit renewables to. play an even larger role.

Related columns:

- International hydro rebound will curb nonrenewable fuel source growth in 2024. ( July 8, 2024)

- China's rapid renewables rollout strikes grid limits (July 4,. 2024)

- China's hydropower generation rises and coal recedes (June. 18, 2024)

- China's shift hindered by flat-lining energy. intensity (April 26, 2024)

John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)