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Executives say that Trump's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on ocean shipping increases the risk of chaos.
The ocean shipping industry is on edge after President Donald Trump announced his new tariff plan. He has stoked a trade conflict that will stifle transport demand and force companies to scramble to manage the fallout. On Wednesday, the Trump administration will announce "reciprocal duties" against nations that impose duties on U.S. products. The move comes after the Trump administration imposed new import duties on products from Mexico and Canada, as well as steel and automobiles. Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, MSC and Maersk are among the major global container shipping companies that transport the towering piles filled with colorful boxes of goods to U.S. clients like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot. They are titans of the ocean shipping industry, which handles 80% or so of all global trade. The industry is worth about $14 trillion per year. Trump's on-and off tariffs are also whipsawing companies. Blake Harden is the vice president for international trade at Retail Industry Leaders Association. "The implementation has caused confusion," he said. The companies haven't had the time, certainty and guidance that they needed to comply with these changes. During his second term, Trump invoked emergency powers in order to quickly add tariffs, which he sometimes retracted and then reinstated. Kit Johnson, Director of Import Compliance at John S. James Co. - a U.S. Customs Broker and Freight Forwarder with customers such as automakers, producers of chemicals, machines, medical devices, and textiles - said that importers do not know their duty costs from week to week. Johnson has seen a rise in the number of customers who choose to ship their autos by air, rather than shipping them by sea. This is a way for customers to avoid new tariffs. Container imports to the U.S. have also risen to record levels over the past few months, as companies rush in toys, bedding, furniture, machinery, and parts from China. The U.S. imports of containers from China, the world's No. 1 exporter have also surged to record levels in recent months as companies rushed in toys, furniture and bedding from China. Other vessel types and planes were called in to assist U.S. companies stockpile cars and other goods from Europe, the Far East and Ireland. According to data provided by freight pricing platform Xeneta, the average spot rate for a 40-foot shipping container on the important Far East-U.S. West Coast was $2,844 Tuesday. This represents a gain of nearly 16% in just one day. This rate is lower than it was one year ago when Houthi attacks were a relatively new threat and traders did not try to avoid tariffs. TARIFFS TAKE BITE Front-loading is a quick fix, but it's only temporary. Tariffs in retaliation could spark trade wars and suffocate the demand. Tariff tiffs are occurring as ocean shipping is put at greater risk by a separate Trump proposal to impose large U.S. Port Call Fees on ships that have links to China. Those who oppose this proposal claim that it will decimate the domestic energy and agriculture exporters Trump promised to help. The critics also say that it could rekindle pandemic chaos in ports, as vessel operators would be tempted to avoid paying fees by flooding some ports while starving other ports. The addition of this tax to tariffs has paralyzed the decision making process for how to sell, source and move goods. Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, said: "You can't make important decisions about your supply chain if the rules keep changing." A Greek container shipping executive who asked to remain anonymous for fear of public comments negatively affecting business said that customers did not load cargo out of fear that they might be charged a high levy at the end a long ocean voyage. We are waiting and watching. Experts have started counting the damage caused by Trump's tariffs. According to the Institute for Supply Management's survey, the fear of levies has already slowed down the turnaround of the U.S. Manufacturing sector. This sector relies heavily on imports and exported goods and is a major driver for transportation. S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts that the volume of U.S. Ocean Container Freight Imports will drop by 0.7% in 2025. S&P stated that "While there was still strong growth in first quarter 2025, this is expected reverse in the second as tariffs bite." U.S. Customs and Border Protection, meanwhile, is scrambling around to reprogram and test the systems required to calculate and collect tariffs. In February, the Trump administration delayed its plan to collect duties from retailers such as Temu and Shein for direct sales of low value goods. This was after packages began piling up at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport. Johnson, a customs broker, said that the more tariffs there are, the harder it will be to keep up. Reporting by Lisa Baertlein, Victoria Waldersee, Rene Maltezou, and David Lawder, in Washington. Editing by Jamie Freed.
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Russia tightens restrictions on Black Sea oil export ports
Russia, the second largest oil exporter in the world, imposed new restrictions on a major oil export route on Wednesday. The suspension of a mooring from the Black Sea port Novorossiisk came only one day after the restriction on loadings through a Caspian pipeline. Russia produces around 9 million barrels per day or just over a tenth of the global oil production. The ports of Russia also receive oil from Kazakhstan. Transneft, the Russian oil pipeline monopoly, said that it had suspended an mooring in the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk after a quick inspection by a transportation watchdog. The Novorossiisk Commercial Sea Port is one of Russia’s biggest export outlets. Closing one mooring will not have a significant impact on its operations. "A temporary operation ban has been placed on the oil loading berth 8." Transneft reported that NCSP was ordered to eliminate any violations identified by June 30th 2025. According to industry sources, Berth 8 is the Sheskharis Terminal's low-sulphur fuel tanker terminal. These tanks have a deadweight around 7,000 tons and are primarily used for exports into Turkey and Georgia. LSEG data and other industry sources showed that this berth handled approximately 100,000 tons of diesel between January and March. On Monday, two of three moorings were closed at a terminal near the Caspian pipeline consortium, in which U.S. oil giants Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and others have stakes. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has expressed his dissatisfaction with Russia over the pace of peace talks in Ukraine and threatened to impose secondary duties on Russian oil buyers. Mark Trevelyan (Reporting and Editing)
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Ukraine April wheat exports are expected to reach 1 million tonnes, says the producers' union
Ukrainian farmers' union UAC stated on Wednesday that Ukraine's exports of wheat are expected to stay high, at 1 million metric tonnes in April compared with 1.1 million in March. UAC stated that exports in March were among the highest for the current season. "Traders have contracted up to 1 million tons of wheat in April. UAC reported that despite the general stagnation of demand in Europe, Ukrainian grain finds buyers, especially in Egypt. Ukraine is one of the world's largest wheat producers and exporters, but last year the Farm Ministry limited exports for 2024/25 to 16,2 million tons in order to maintain a stable supply on a domestic market. According to the Ministry, traders have already exported nearly 13 million tons wheat. Vitaliy Koval, Minister of Agriculture, said that he believes traders are complying with all requirements set by the ministry regarding export volumes. The ministry will not change the amount of wheat that is available for export during the current July-June 2024/25 season, despite the relatively fast pace of shipments. "No changes are planned." Vysotskiy stated that everything was in accordance with the memo. Ukraine exports the majority of its wheat during the first half of the year and then gradually reduces the shipments throughout the rest of the year, shifting to corn. UAC stated that it expects the price of new harvest wheat in Ukraine to drop by $20 per ton, Carriage Paid for (CPT), to between $190 and $200 per ton at the Black Sea in July. If possible, do not sell too quickly. In July-August the market has historically been saturated with wheat exports from major exporting nations - Ukraine and Russia as well as Romania and the U.S., and the price is usually lower even if there's a surplus balance. The union predicted that the price could rise to $220 to 235 per ton of CPT between October and December. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman, Sharon Singleton and Pavel Polityuk)
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Denmark's APMH offers $1.3 billion for the tugboat group Svitzer
Denmark's A.P. Moller Holding, a subsidiary of Denmark's A.P. APMH already owned 47% of Svitzer's shares prior to the bid. The independent board members of the towing company unanimously approved the offer. APMH is the controlling shareholder of Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk . APMH stated in a press release that the stock market listing did not generate the investor interest expected. A delisting will allow Svitzer to continue its growth. It added that Svitzer must grow its business to maintain its market position in an industry fragmented and competitive, undergoing consolidation. Svitzer shares have risen 8.2% to 216.4 Danish crowns since their IPO, while APMH is offering 285 crowns.
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Maguire: US natural gas prices prepare for the impact of tariff crossfire on US prices
The U.S. Natural Gas prices have already risen by about 80% in the last year, but they are set to get a new jolt due to the effects of the recent round of tariffs levied by the U.S. Government on goods entering the nation. The U.S. Gas Market will be affected regardless of when and how the new tariffs come into effect. Exports of LNG in the form or gas are likely to become a bargaining tool in any subsequent trade maneuvers. Commitments to increase purchases of U.S. LNG can be a quick way to rebalance the trade ledger to the U.S. for nations that are looking to reduce their trade surplus or avoid future tariffs. As a possible form of reprisal, some countries that are affected by the new tariffs and who already buy U.S. LNG regularly may also threaten to reduce their purchases. Gas exporters, utilities and households will all be affected by the changes in the gas trade volume and price. BIG STAKES According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. exported nearly 12 billion cubic foot of LNG every day in 2024. This cemented its position as the world's top LNG exporter for the second consecutive year. The LNG shipments generated more than $30 billion in revenue, which was significant for both the companies that shipped the gas as well as the U.S. Treasury. According to Kpler ship tracking data, the Netherlands was the largest market for U.S. LNG in 2024, accounting for 11% of all volumes. France, Japan and South Korea were the next biggest buyers of U.S. LNG. China, Turkey, Spain, and the United Kingdom also made a notable purchase. Tipping the Balance The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods that these countries sell to the U.S., as the U.S. is running up trade deficits. All of these countries already buy a lot of U.S. LNG. It is likely they will increase their purchases in order to ease relations with the Trump Administration. As part of the tariff negotiations, other countries with large trade surpluses, such as Vietnam, may also consider increasing U.S. LNG exports. Plan B LNG will also be a part of any countermeasures that nations take to retaliate against the U.S. after they raised tariffs. China and several European countries, including Germany, have pledged to respond to the planned hikes in tariffs. They are likely to see LNG as a way to cause revenue damage to the U.S. while not risking self-harm. Qatar, Australia, and Malaysia also provide LNG to global clients, so they will be able quickly replace any U.S. LNG volumes lost, while U.S. LNG suppliers may find it difficult to find alternative buyers. GAS FLOW AFFECTS The domestic gas market will be affected by the new tariffs in the United States, regardless of how the LNG export volume trends. The increase in LNG imports will result in a higher demand for gas at LNG export terminals, and a tighter supply of gas for other gas consumers. This will put pressure on U.S. utility companies that rely on gas to produce approximately 40% of their electricity. In response to higher gas prices in the US, several utilities have already reduced their gas usage in favor of increasing coal-fired electricity generation. Gas prices could rise further due to the renewed strength of LNG exports. This would lead to a surge in U.S. electricity emissions, which could accelerate climate changes. If, on the other hand most trade partners choose to reduce U.S. purchases of LNG as part of a tariff reprisal, then demand for LNG export terminals may drop, which could result in more gas being available at home and lower gas costs. It is likely that there will be mixed reactions among trading partners, as some countries may reduce their LNG purchases, while others might increase them. These volume swings may eventually balance each other out, resulting in a total LNG volume that is largely unchanged by the end the year. In the short term, however, the sudden changes in LNG order flows could trigger wild swings on the gas market. Gas market participants will need to be able to take advantage of any price movements that are favorable and to avoid volatile market conditions. These are the opinions of a market analyst at.
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President of a Japanese shipping company fears that US tariffs could slow down cargo flow, he says
Nippon Yusen, Japan's biggest shipping line, fears that tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump could increase the price of cars and everyday goods, reducing consumer demand and slowing down cargo flow, according to its president. "The tariffs do not fall directly on the consumers but they are ultimately responsible for the burden, which reduces the flow of goods." In an interview with Takaya Soga on Monday, he said that this was his biggest concern. Last week, Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobile imports. This move is expected to hurt Japan's export driven economy. He also promised to announce reciprocal duties targeting all trading partners this Wednesday. "Tariffs can have a significant impact on the economy," Soga added, adding that the actual cargo movement will determine the extent of this impact. Soga, however, sees benefits that could come from the trade conflict. He said that even if cargo volume declines, delays caused by tariff-related procedures could disrupt logistics and tighten ship demand, which would increase freight rates. NYK may find new business opportunities if China begins to source raw materials outside of the U.S. In anticipation of U.S. Tariffs, a rush for consumer goods drove cargo movements in December up until the Chinese New Year. However, there has not been a major change in material flow since they went into effect, Soga stated. The United States also plans to charge docking fees at U.S. port for any ship that is a part of a large fleet including Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged ships and will pressure allies to follow suit or face retaliation. According to NYK, of the 800 ships owned or operated, less than 10 percent are Chinese-built. He said that the U.S. Government will examine carefully whether or not this policy will be implemented. Therefore, we cannot state now that we are going to stop ordering vessels from China. Soga anticipates that Red Sea avoidance will continue as long as geopolitical risk in the Middle East persists. Last year, disruptions in the Red Sea caused by attacks by Yemeni Houthi militants consumed extra capacity as many ships took an extended route around Southern Africa. Soga stated that while the congestion of container vessels in the Panama Canal is mostly resolved, NYK has asked the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) to restore Tier 1 priority status for LNG tanker traffic. Soga stated that the company may delay its plans to invest in vessels for offshore wind projects in Japan due to a slower than expected market development. However, overseas investments would proceed faster. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul, Additional reporting by Tim Kelly)
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Shipbuilder Austal shares ride military spending wave and defy market decline
Analysts said that the policies of U.S. president Donald Trump, which have caused stock markets around the globe to tremble, are actually benefiting Austal Australia Shipbuilder. The shares of the company that supplies commercial and defence vessels to clients such as the Australian and U.S. Navy, among others, soared by 35% during the three-month period ending in March. This was their best quarter gain in almost two years, since June 2023. The broader benchmark, on the other hand, lost around 4% due to concerns about stretched valuations in financial stocks as well as the impact of U.S. Tariffs. Austal shares have risen in response to Trump's request that Australia and other U.S. allies increase their defence spending. Last week, Australia announced that it would be bringing forward A$1billion in defence expenditures in the federal budget. Dhierin Perkash Bechai is an aerospace analyst for Seeking Alpha and The Aerospace Forum. She said that with higher defense spending, and a greater need for autonomy across all domains, Austal could see more orders from Australia. "That's also driven by the sense that China could become more aggressive in this region amid a fallout with the U.S. Austal has grown its order book by 11% in the last six months, to A$14.2-billion. Austal's two shipyards are located in the United States, which shields it from Trump's possible import tariffs. These have recently roiled the global markets, and further enhances Austal's appeal to investors. The shipyards produce smaller combat vessels, reconnaissance ships and modules for nuclear powered and nuclear armed submarines. Investors want companies that can win business in the U.S. without tariffs or sacrificing their growth ambitions elsewhere, said Nicholas Sundich. Hanwha, a South Korean conglomerate, recently bought a 9,9% stake in Austal. This was nearly a full year after Austal rejected Hanwha's A$1.02 Billion takeover offer. This acquisition shows the foreign interest in Austal.
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Argentina begins gas exports via Bolivia, says Brazilian firm
T otalEnergies exported for the first-time gas from Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale to Brazil's Matrix Energia, Matrix announced in a statement on Tuesday. Sources familiar with the situation claim that 500,000 cubic metres of gas were exported via the Bolivian pipeline Tuesday. The statement from Matrix stated that the objective of this unprecedented operation was to ensure the technical viability and stability of the logistics networks. It also added that it involved many different parts of supply chains, as well as the signing of two natural gas import contracts for a three-party operational agreement. Over the past year, companies from Bolivia, Argentina, and Brazil have been negotiating deals to ensure that Argentina's natural gas can reach Brazil, one of Latin America’s most important markets. Sources said last year that Bolivia initially refused to charge a toll fee for use of its infrastructure. Instead, it preferred a solution whereby it would buy gas from Argentina, and then resell to Brazil. Negotiations improved in the last few months and several supply contracts were identified. Since years, the pipeline has transported Bolivian gas to Brazil and Argentina. However, as Bolivia's gas production declines, export volumes have decreased. The arrival of Vaca Muerta in Brazil is a victory for Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva who prioritized providing cheaper gas to Brazil's industry. Exports would be a victory for Argentina as well, since its gas production is increasing under the market-friendly policies of President Javier Milei, creating a new revenue stream for a country that had been experiencing a deficit on its energy trade. One of the sources said that the contract was a spot agreement, meaning the supply could be interrupted in winter, when the demand for goods is high in Argentina. Bolivia's state energy company YPFB has not responded to a comment request on the new exports via Bolivian pipelines. (Reporting and editing by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez, Stephen Coates and Fabio Teixeira; Additional reporting by Marianna Pararaga)
What happens when Russian gas to Europe by means of Ukraine stops?
Russian President Vladimir Putin fulfilled Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin on Sunday, an uncommon visit by a European Union leader to Moscow as a. agreement allowing for Russian gas to transit through Ukraine. nears expiration.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had stated on Thursday. that Kyiv might think about continued transit of Russian gas, but. just on condition that Moscow did not receive payment up until. after the war - a condition it was unlikely to accept. Putin. said that day that it was clear there would be no new deal with. Kyiv to send out Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit by means of Ukraine is. totally shut off and whom will be impacted most.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas products to Europe by means of Ukraine are fairly. little. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas. by means of Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to. Europe through different paths in 2018-19.
Russia invested half a century developing its European gas market. share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow has lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the. United States and Qatar given that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in. 2022, which spurred the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas costs rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss. of Russian materials. The rally will not be repeated offered modest. volumes and a little number of consumers for the staying. volumes, according to EU authorities and traders.
UKRAINIAN PATH
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas. from Siberia by means of the town of Sudzha - which is now under control. of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk area. It then. flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline divides into branches going to. the Czech Republic and Austria.
Russia's general gas exports via the path have held. constant regardless of the
blockage
of flows from Gazprom to Austria's OMV in. mid-November over a contractual conflict, and legal wranglings as. other buyers stepped in to buy the volumes.
Austria still gets most of its gas via Ukraine, while. Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy huge Gazprom. each year, also about two-thirds of its requirements.
The Czech Republic practically totally cut gas imports from. the east in 2015, but began taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas paths to Europe are shut consisting of. Yamal-Europe through Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other functional Russian gas pipeline path to. Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Turkey under the. Black Sea. Turkey sends out some Russian gas volumes onward to. Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While staying Russian gas transit volumes are little, the. issue stays a problem for the EU. Lots of EU members such as. France and Germany have said they will not purchase Russian gas. anymore however the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which. have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU typical technique.
The nations, who still get Russian gas, argue it is. the most economic fuel and likewise blame neighbouring EU countries. for high transit costs imposed on alternative materials.
Ukraine still makes $0.8-$ 1 billion in transit fees each year. from Russian gas transit.
According to Reuters computations, Gazprom's total. pipeline gas exports to Europe by means of all paths in 2024 have. increased to 32 bcm from 28.3 bcm in 2023, when they collapsed. to the most affordable level since the 1970s.
Russia could make around $5 billion on sales by means of Ukraine. this year based on a typical Russian federal government gas price. forecast of $339 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to Reuters. estimations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a. net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its very first annual loss given that. 1999, because of the loss of EU gas markets.
Russia has said it would be prepared to extend the transit offer. however Kyiv has consistently stated it will not do it.
Another alternative is for Gazprom to provide a few of the gas through. another path, for instance via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or. Hungary. Nevertheless, capability via these paths is limited.
Hungary
has actually been eager to keep the Ukrainian path open, but stated it. would continue to get Russian gas from the south, by means of the. TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to help with. discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit offer.
A senior source at Azeri energy business SOCAR informed Reuters. on Friday that Moscow and Kyiv have failed to settle on the deal. brokered by Azerbaijan to continue Russian gas exports to Europe. through Ukraine.
(source: Reuters)