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Which bullish 2026 equity investments don't need AI euphoria to be successful? : Helen Jewell
Equity investors looking for a smooth ride through 2026 may want to consider increasing their exposure beyond the artificial intelligence euphoria. Opportunities could be hidden in plain sight. Investors should be cautious. The valuations of U.S. equity are stretched. The Shiller price-earnings for the S&P 500 is above 40, which is very close to the levels during the dot-com boom in the 1990s. Markets have become 'highly concentrated. Goldman Sachs analysis shows that the five largest U.S. tech companies, Nvidia Apple Alphabet Microsoft and Amazon, have a combined value greater than?the Euro STOXX?50. This includes Britain, India Japan and Canada stock markets. The CBOE Volatility index has been spiking in recent months, which raises doubts about the AI-fueled rally this year. Many regions and sectors outside the U.S. technology sector generated steady returns last year - and many will be able to do so again next. Beyond the U.S. The U.S. was not the only region that had equity in 2025. At the beginning of December, the world's largest market was ranked 20th for the year-to date performance by country. This is based on the local currency returns. South Korea and Spain led the pack. It was not necessary to be in the U.S. for double-digit returns. Goldman Sachs reports that 84% of stock markets in all countries have seen a rise greater than 10% over the last 12 months. There are many reasons why international stocks could continue to perform better next year. European stocks could benefit from an increase in economic activity. The loan growth rate is rising and the composite purchasing managers' (PMI), which measures economic expansion, is above 50. The German fiscal stimulus program and European defence spending could turbocharge this cyclical growth in 2026. This should help cyclical European businesses, like those that make trucks and mining equipment. This is especially true if the euro/dollar rate stabilizes in 2019. In Japan, the combination of healthy inflation with corporate transformation (many companies are seeking to streamline and focus on core businesses) could continue driving higher profits and shareholder returns by 2026. The government's lower chamber just passed a $117billion supplementary budget, to "fund massive fiscal stimuli" that should support the economy. Japan is the only major economy that we expect to see interest rates rise in 2026. However, this should boost banks and not be a drag on growth. Earnings in emerging markets may be supported through a weaker US dollar, lower interest rates globally, and an influx of money and investments as global supply chain realignment occurs to accommodate trade tensions and geopolitical conflict. My home market, the UK, which outperformed the U.S. without any help from high-profile AI-winners, has the potential to provide steady, stable returns. This is especially true given that valuations are currently among the lowest of all developed markets. Investors must identify British companies with the potential to overcome the negative perceptions still surrounding the country. Beyond Technology The story is similar for all sectors. It's not just about U.S. technology. In local currency terms, European banks outperformed "Magnificent 7" by 40 percentages points over the past five years. There is no mention of a bubble. The valuations remain below the long-term averages. Our analysis shows that European Banks as a whole will return 24% of their market capitalization to shareholders in the next three year via dividends and share buybacks. In recent years, healthcare stocks have been less successful than the overall market. This traditionally defensive sector, where demand is independent of economic cycles, has consistently shown strong earnings growth even in times of market stress. According to our analysis, healthcare stocks trade at a discount of 28% to global equity - a level only seen twice in the last 30 years. In both cases, the sector gained more than 20% in the next 12 months. There are many ways to get exposure in the AI field without having to pay a fortune. AI power demand highlights the need for investment in grid infrastructure and clean energy, including utility companies that power data centres. Both clean energy stocks as well as listed infrastructure companies trade at a discount compared to the market. AI does not have to be costly. AI could continue to grow in 2026, especially if efficiency gains begin to be more evident. High valuations could keep the markets on edge. Investors who want to reduce their risk exposure have many options. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.
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South Korea's parliament passes a bill to investigate the 2024 Jeju Air crash
The South Korean parliament approved a bill on Monday that would launch an independent investigation into the December 2024 crash of the Jeju Air plane, which killed 179 people. It was the worst air disaster to ever occur in South Korea. A panel of 18 parliamentarians will investigate possible causes of the accident, including whether there was enough done to prevent a bird strike or any mechanical failures, and if the plane hit an embankment at the end of the runway. According to the bill, the inquiry will also examine whether the government tried to conceal or downplay any findings that were made during the official investigation. After an aborted landing at Muan Airport, a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 belly-landed without its landing gear down. It?overshot runway and slammed against an embankment. All but two of the passengers on board died as the fireball erupted. The Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board, a government-led body, has yet to issue a final report. In a statement, it said: Report on interim assessment In January, two of the aircraft's engines were damaged by bird strikes. Updated on September 29, 2009 In July, the board discovered that the left engine was shut down despite the fact that it had less damage than the right. It could have kept an aircraft in flight. Experts say that the embankment that supported the airport navigation equipment at the end was not built in accordance with international standards. These standards require that such structures be constructed in a manner that they would be easily able to give way in the event of an impact. Experts warn against placing too much emphasis on insufficient evidence. (Reporting and editing by Jack Kim, Hyunjoo Ji)
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Seatrium and Maersk resolve dispute over $475 Million contract for offshore Wind vessel
Singapore's Seatrium shipbuilder announced on Monday that it had reached an agreement with Denmark's Maersk for the delivery of an offshore wind vessel. The vessel was intended to be used on a project near New York. Seatrium reported Maersk terminated its contract with Seatrium on October 10 citing "construction delays", but at the time did not mention if it had paid the completed work. Maersk will pay $360 million, the remaining balance of the $475 million contract price. Maersk will pay the remaining balance of $360 million, or $475 million. Both parties agreed that the "optimal course of action" was to end all legal proceedings and withdraw from court. This decision was made after taking into consideration, among other things, financial implications and the risk of costly and lengthy proceedings. Seatrium stated that the project was 99.8% complete as of December 22. (Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris Reese)
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Officials say that the US is pursuing a third oil tanker near Venezuela
Officials told reporters on Sunday that the U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing a tanker near Venezuela in international waters. If successful, this would be the second operation of the weekend and third in less two weeks. A U.S. official stated that the United States Coast Guard was actively pursuing a dark fleet vessel sanctioned by the United States, which is part of Venezuela’s illegal sanctions evasion. It is under a judicial seize order and flying a false-flag." A second official confirmed that the tanker was under sanctions but said that it hadn't been boarded yet. He also noted that interceptions could take many forms, including?sailing close to vessels that are of concern or by flying near them. Officials who spoke under condition of anonymity did not specify a location or identify the vessel that was being pursued. The White House didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment made on Sunday. TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN OF PRESSURE Donald Trump announced last week a "blockade", which would prevent all oil tankers subject to sanctions from entering or leaving Venezuela. Trump's campaign of pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro includes a stepped-up military presence in the region, and over two dozen military attacks on vessels near Venezuela in the Pacific Ocean or Caribbean Sea. The attacks have killed at least 100 people. Kevin Hassett said that the first two oil tanks seized were on the black-market and supplying oil to countries with sanctions in a TV interview?on Sunday. Hassett told CBS's "Face the Nation," "I don't believe that Americans should be concerned that prices will go up due to these seizure of these ships." "There are only a few of them and they were black-market ships." One oil trader said that oil prices may rise slightly when Asian trading resumes Monday. Giovanni Staunovo, a UBS analyst, said that "we might see modest price increases at the beginning of this week because market participants may see it as an escalation since more Venezuelan barrels are at risk." One analyst stated that the seizure of oil barrels from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran could increase tensions in the shadow fleet which transports oil from sanctioned nations. Matias Togni is an oil shipping analyst for NextBarrel. He said that the seizures could encourage Ukraine to continue to attack Russian vessels, and perhaps encourage Europe to also detain vessels linked to Moscow's dark fleet. Helen Coster, Steve Holland, Shariq Khan, and Idrees Al, reporting; Helen Coster, writing; Sergio Non and Chizu Nomiyama, editing; Costas Pitas and Andrew Heavens.
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Officials say that the US is pursuing a third oil tanker near Venezuela
Officials told reporters on Sunday that the U.S. Coast Guard was pursuing an oil tanker near Venezuela in international waters. This would be the second operation of this kind in the past weekend, and the third if it is successful. A U.S. official stated that the United States Guard was actively pursuing a vessel sanctioned as part of Venezuela's illegal efforts to evade sanctions. It is under a judicial seize order and flying a false-flag. A second official confirmed that the tanker had been sanctioned, but said that it hadn't yet been boarded. He also noted that interceptions could take many forms, including flying or sailing close to vessels that are of concern. Officials who spoke on condition of anonymity did not specify the location or name of the vessel that was being pursued. The White House didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment on Sunday. Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump announced a "blockade", which would prevent all oil tankers subject to sanctions from entering or leaving Venezuela. Trump's campaign of pressure on Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro includes a "increased military presence" in the region, and over two dozen military strikes against vessels near Venezuela in the Pacific Ocean or Caribbean Sea. The attacks have resulted in at least 100 deaths. Kevin Hassett said that the first two oil tanks seized were on the black-market and were providing oil to sanctioned countries in an interview with NBC on Sunday. Hassett stated on CBS's "Face the Nation?" program that "people in the U.S. shouldn't be concerned that prices will go up due to these seizures of ships." "There are only a few of them and they were black-market ships." One oil trader said that oil prices may rise slightly when Asian trading resumes Monday. Market participants may perceive this as a price increase, as more Venezuelan barrels are at risk because the tanker is not listed on the US sanctions list. Analysts say the seizures are raising geopolitical concerns and will likely cause friction within the shadow fleet of vessels that transport oil from sanctioned nations like Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. Matias Togni is an oil shipping analyst for NextBarrel. He said that the seizures could legitimize, and perhaps encourage, Ukraine to continue to attack Russian vessels, and maybe even encourage Europe to also detain vessels linked to Moscow's dark fleet. Togni stated that the output of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil is already slowing down. He added that he anticipates the same thing to happen for Russia. He said that oil from countries subject to sanctions will likely be sold at steeper discounts, as logistics costs increase. This could limit the rise in benchmark prices. Helen Coster, Steve Holland, and Shariq Khan contributed to the reporting; Helen Coster wrote the article; Costas Pitas edited it; Sergio Non, Paul Simao, and Chizu Nomiayama provided editing.
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Serbian students protest university pressure following railway station tragedy
On Sunday, several thousand activists from all over Serbia rallied in support of the student protests that took place in the southwest region. They were protesting what they called government pressure on public universities. The protest, which was part of a larger movement against political interference in higher educational institutions, was 'the first demonstration of its kind held in Novi Pazar - a town with majority Bosniak Muslim residents. This is one of many protests that have been organised since the roof of a railway in Novi Sad, a northern city, collapsed last year and 16 people were killed. After walking for days, students from Novi Pazar joined mass protests at Novi Sad on the first anniversary of the roof collapse. They claim that the university administration has now revoked regular status of students who were absent because of protests, and dismissed dozens lecturers. Momcilo elenbaba who came from a town 190 km north of Novi Pazar, travelled to show his support for the students. "I came here because 200 students and 30 professors have lost their jobs." The protesters want the resignation of the managing board of the university and the election a new rector. Dzenana Ohmetovic, an activist, said: "We're here to send a signal to Serbia that we are fighting for interim management and survival of our university." "This is a concern for all of us and not just Novi Pazar." Participants observed a moment's silence for victims of the collapsed roof throughout the protest. They waved flags of their cities and universities, whistled and chanted "Pump Up!" Students, academics and opposition figures are leading the protest movement that accuses Serbian president?Aleksandar Vucic of encouraging corruption, poor public services, nepotism and restrictions on freedom of media. Vucic, and his party, deny these allegations. Novi Pazar, Serbia's?youngest?town in terms of demographics, has 60% of its majority muslim population below the age of thirty. Since the breakup Yugoslavia, more than 30 years ago, despite its ethnic makeup, there have not been any clashes between Orthodox Serbs and those from Novi Pazar.
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Telecom Italia will hold a Sunday board meeting to discuss the conversion of savings shares
Two sources say Telecom Italia's board of directors will meet Sunday afternoon to discuss the?long-awaited? plan?to transform its savings shares into regular stock. The move is intended to reduce costs and simplify its capital structure. Two sources said that Telecom?Italia's board will meet on Sunday afternoon to discuss a?long-awaited plan?to convert its savings shares into ordinary stock. The move is aimed at cutting costs and simplifying the capital structure. Two sources familiar with the matter said that the board would discuss the final details of the conversion plan, and they expect to call for a shareholder meeting to vote on it at the end January. The board will also appoint a director to fill a vacant position, according to the sources, but did not elaborate. A Telecom Italia spokesperson refused to comment. This conversion would be another important step in the restructuring of the company, after the 19.8 billion-euro sale to KKR of its fixed-line networks, aimed at reducing debt, and its entry by the state-backed Poste Italiane, as its largest shareholder. Savings shares make up nearly?28% (or 166 million euros) of Telecom Italia’s capital structure. They are guaranteed to pay a minimum dividend. Pietro Labriola, the chief executive of Italy's largest phone group, has said that it aims to eliminate dual-class shares and reduce costly savings shares. The savings shares were trading at 0.57 euro?each on Friday, a 7-cent premium over the ordinary stock. The conversion would require a majority of two-thirds at the ordinary shareholders' meeting and would dilute existing investors. This includes the largest shareholder, Poste Italiane with a 27,3% stake. Separately, the shareholders of Savings will vote on this proposal. Telecom Italia tried to eliminate its saving shares a decade before, but Vivendi, then the top investor at that time blocked the plan.
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Iraq: International firms in Kurdistan are required to transfer crude oil under the deal
Iraq's State Oil Marketer SOMO announced?on Sunday that international producers in Kurdistan are still obligated to send their crude oil under a September Export agreement After DNO, the Norwegian government said that it would not be taking part in this agreement. SOMO's statement is in response to an article in September that cited DNO, which said it would sell to the Kurdish region directly and did not have immediate plans to ship through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline. In the September agreement between Iraq's Oil Ministry, Kurdistan’s Ministry of Natural Resources and production companies, SOMO agreed to?export crude oil from Kurdish oilfields through the Turkey pipeline. DNO, the largest international oil company active in Kurdistan, welcomed the agreement but refused to sign it because it wanted more information on how the outstanding debts would?be paid. It stated that it would continue to supply directly to the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. SOMO reported on Sunday that the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources had reaffirmed their commitment to the agreement "under which all international companies engaged in extracting and producing crude oil in the region are required to provide the quantities to SOMO except for those quantities allocated to local consumption within the region." (Reporting and editing by Jaidaa Tolba and Ahmed Tolba)
What happens when Russian gas to Europe by means of Ukraine stops?
Russian President Vladimir Putin fulfilled Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin on Sunday, an uncommon visit by a European Union leader to Moscow as a. agreement allowing for Russian gas to transit through Ukraine. nears expiration.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had stated on Thursday. that Kyiv might think about continued transit of Russian gas, but. just on condition that Moscow did not receive payment up until. after the war - a condition it was unlikely to accept. Putin. said that day that it was clear there would be no new deal with. Kyiv to send out Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit by means of Ukraine is. totally shut off and whom will be impacted most.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas products to Europe by means of Ukraine are fairly. little. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas. by means of Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to. Europe through different paths in 2018-19.
Russia invested half a century developing its European gas market. share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow has lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the. United States and Qatar given that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in. 2022, which spurred the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas costs rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss. of Russian materials. The rally will not be repeated offered modest. volumes and a little number of consumers for the staying. volumes, according to EU authorities and traders.
UKRAINIAN PATH
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas. from Siberia by means of the town of Sudzha - which is now under control. of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk area. It then. flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline divides into branches going to. the Czech Republic and Austria.
Russia's general gas exports via the path have held. constant regardless of the
blockage
of flows from Gazprom to Austria's OMV in. mid-November over a contractual conflict, and legal wranglings as. other buyers stepped in to buy the volumes.
Austria still gets most of its gas via Ukraine, while. Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy huge Gazprom. each year, also about two-thirds of its requirements.
The Czech Republic practically totally cut gas imports from. the east in 2015, but began taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas paths to Europe are shut consisting of. Yamal-Europe through Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other functional Russian gas pipeline path to. Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Turkey under the. Black Sea. Turkey sends out some Russian gas volumes onward to. Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While staying Russian gas transit volumes are little, the. issue stays a problem for the EU. Lots of EU members such as. France and Germany have said they will not purchase Russian gas. anymore however the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which. have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU typical technique.
The nations, who still get Russian gas, argue it is. the most economic fuel and likewise blame neighbouring EU countries. for high transit costs imposed on alternative materials.
Ukraine still makes $0.8-$ 1 billion in transit fees each year. from Russian gas transit.
According to Reuters computations, Gazprom's total. pipeline gas exports to Europe by means of all paths in 2024 have. increased to 32 bcm from 28.3 bcm in 2023, when they collapsed. to the most affordable level since the 1970s.
Russia could make around $5 billion on sales by means of Ukraine. this year based on a typical Russian federal government gas price. forecast of $339 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to Reuters. estimations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a. net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its very first annual loss given that. 1999, because of the loss of EU gas markets.
Russia has said it would be prepared to extend the transit offer. however Kyiv has consistently stated it will not do it.
Another alternative is for Gazprom to provide a few of the gas through. another path, for instance via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or. Hungary. Nevertheless, capability via these paths is limited.
Hungary
has actually been eager to keep the Ukrainian path open, but stated it. would continue to get Russian gas from the south, by means of the. TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to help with. discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit offer.
A senior source at Azeri energy business SOCAR informed Reuters. on Friday that Moscow and Kyiv have failed to settle on the deal. brokered by Azerbaijan to continue Russian gas exports to Europe. through Ukraine.
(source: Reuters)