Armenians are increasingly worried about war with Azerbaijan due to escalating ceasefire violations

Khnatsakh residents are anxious at nightfall.

Locals claim that every evening, around 10 pm, Azerbaijani soldiers fire into the night skies from their positions high above.

Villagers say that bullets have been hitting houses regularly, but no one has been injured so far. Azerbaijan has denied that its troops are firing across the border and accused Armenian forces of violating ceasefire.

Karo Andranyan (66), a retired mechanic, said, "It is very tense at home because we have children, little ones and elderly."

Azerbaijani flags and a military position on a hillside are only 100 metres away from his door. This is a reminder that Armenia's bitter enemy is close by. Since the early 1990s, the heavily militarized 1,000-km border is closed.

Two major wars have been fought in the last 40 years. This has destabilised the Caucasus, a region which is important for Russia, Iran, and Turkey because it contains major oil and natural gas pipelines towards Europe.

Experts say that the rising tensions along the border increase the likelihood of a new conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as the two countries approach a crucial juncture in their tortuous peace process.

In March, both sides announced that they had reached an agreement on the outline of a treaty of peace to be signed by 2026. This raised hopes for reconciliation. The draft envisages both sides delineating their shared borders, but requires Armenia to amend the constitution before Azerbaijan can ratify the deal.

After months of relative calm, the reports of ceasefire breaches along the border are now soaring.

Andranyan believes the gunfire at night is meant to intimidate both the local villagers and the small garrison Armenian troops that are stationed in the village. He said that the village, which according to census data had 1,000 residents, was emptying because locals were afraid of a return to war.

What are we to do?

Despite the fact that there has been no death on the border in over a year, cross-border gunfire is reported frequently. Azerbaijan has made the majority of accusations against Armenia since March. These include cross-border gunfire, and damage to property.

Both sides have denied claims of ceasefire violation.

Since 2020, the simmering conflict has decisively shifted in Azerbaijan’s favor. The oil and gas producer regained territory lost during the 1990s. It also progressively reestablished control over Nagorno Karabakh where ethnic Armenians established de facto autonomy since the collapse the Soviet Union. It retook Karabakh in 2023, causing 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region to flee to Armenia.

Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, told a hearing of Congress last month that there was "a real risk" of war. He stated that the U.S. wished Azerbaijan to "accept a peace accord that doesn't cause them to invade a neighboring nation, Armenia."

Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev has been in power since 2003. He said that in January, Armenia was a "fascist menace" that must be eliminated.

Laurence Broers is an expert in Armenia and Azerbaijan from London's Chatham House. He said that a full-scale conflict was possible but more localised clashes are more likely.

He said Azerbaijan's population, which is 10 million, is three times that of Armenia. It has little incentive to sign a peace agreement quickly and could instead use smaller scale escalation to force its neighbor to make further concessions during the talks.

Ilham Aliyev's strategy of escalation and militarization was a great success, he said.

The Armenian authorities have insisted that there will not be a war. Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, said in a speech delivered last month that "despite all arguments and all provocations", the two countries will not fight again.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry responded to questions regarding the tensions along its border by referring to previous comments.

In a May statement, Baku said it was committed to peace and had no territorial claims against Armenia. In a statement in May, it said that Yerevan’s actions "call Armenia’s commitment to peace into question".

The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry has denied Armenian reports that cross-border gunfire had taken place.

Tensions in the South

The conflict is centered in Armenia's southernmost region of Syunik, where the majority of ceasefire violations have been reported.

Syunik divides Azerbaijan's main body to the east and the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan in the west. It is also a crucial trade route between Armenia and Iran, with which it shares a border to the south.

Azerbaijan demands that Armenia build a route through Syunik and Nakhchivan since 2020. Baku said the passage would be Armenian territory, but with minimal control from Yerevan.

Azerbaijani officials also claim that the southern part of Armenia was historically Azerbaijani land, but they haven't made a formal territorial claim.

Armenia has closed its border with Azerbaijan and its frontier with Turkey, a close ally to Baku. This makes its border with Iran the lifeline of trade. Syunik's corridor could cut off the country's access to its remote mountainous border.

Armenia and Iran share a warm relationship, despite Armenia’s Christian faith and its increasingly pro-Western orientation. Iran was Armenia's largest importer in 2022. Tehran's Defence Minister visited Yerevan in May. Iranian media reported that he expressed Iran's opposition against redrawing borderlines in the region.

Armenia's tensions with its traditional ally Russia are a major problem. Russia opposes Armenian efforts to move closer to the west and has strengthened its ties with Azerbaijan.

"Armenia has open borders with Georgia and Iran. "This keeps the country moving," said Tigran Grizaryan, director at the Regional Centre for Democracy and Security, a think tank in Yerevan.

Grigoryan stated that Azerbaijani demands for the corridor may be the spark to future military escalation. He said that the ceasefire violation could be an attempt to force Armenia to make concessions over the issue.

He said: "If Armenia lost its border with Iran that would be a disaster."

Requests for comments from the Iranian and Russian Foreign Ministries were not answered.

The Iranian connection is evident throughout Armenia's south.

Iranian road workers work to widen a mountainside road that is clogged by lorries coming from the south, headed north toward Georgia and Russia.

Some locals are selling red wine in plastic bottles to newly-arrived truckers from Iran where alcohol is prohibited.

Meghri is the historic town at the southernmost point of Armenia, and the gateway to Iran.

Bagrat Zakaryan, Bagrat's deputy mayor, said that the town, which is only 16 km from Azerbaijan and has a population of 4,000, had its everyday life overshadowed due to tensions with Baku.

He said that "given the recent events of Karabakh and what President Azerbaijan says, there's this feeling of terror."

Opportunity for Peace

Some people are more optimistic than others about the prospects of peace.

Armen Davtyan, who was deputy director at Meghri railway station from 1993 to 1993, sat on a crossroads that connected Yerevan with Baku and Iran with the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991.

After the Karabakh War of 1988-1994 and the closing of the border, Davtyan began working as a borderguard.

A derelict train with an emblazoned Soviet emblem lingers in the parking lot of the station, just metres away from the Iranian border.

Davtyan said that he remembered fondly the days before the war, when Armenians worked with Azerbaijanis on the railways. He hopes to see cross-border trains again arrive at Meghri Station one day.

He said: "I understand that some people fear that the Azerbaijanis may return if the rail reopens."

"But if people in 2025 are still afraid of us opening up transport links, that seems a bit absurd." (Reporting and editing by Daniel Flynn; Felix Light)

(source: Reuters)