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Fuel costs are at multi-year highs, and Americans should prepare for expensive summer travel.

The soaring?price of gasoline and the looming fuel shortage from the Iran War are not deterring American travelers as they hit the road this weekend for the start of the U.S. Summer Driving Season, though some plan shorter trips to save money. Since early May, the average U.S. retail gasoline price has been hovering around $4.50. This is about 45% more than before Israel and the United States launched their attacks on Iran late in February. The price of crude oil, which is used to make gasoline, has also risen, along with other goods, since the conflict led to an effective closure of Strait of Hormuz. This key trade route, through which 20% of world oil consumption passes, was effectively closed by the conflict. In most areas of the U.S. it was more than a week ago that this $4-per-gallon barrier was breached. This is seen by many as a psychological barrier. This milestone was last achieved in August 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Donald 'Trump faces mounting political pressure in the run-up to November's midterm election as households struggle with rising costs. Iran's war is a major factor in driving consumer inflation up to its highest levels in nearly three years. Energy prices are also a significant contributor. Many states have already suspended gas taxes in order to reduce the cost of fuel. Discussions are also underway about reducing federal 18.4 cent gasoline tax.

Higher costs, shorter trips The Memorial Day weekend, which is a three-day holiday when many Americans hit the road, marks the beginning of the summer travel season. According to AAA data, a record 39.1 millions people will travel by car in spite of high gas prices. Tiffany Wright, AAA spokesperson, said that this is the smallest annual increase in over a decade. She added that high fuel prices and persistent inflation could lead some travelers take shorter trips, postpone travel plans, or stay closer to home.

Even so, Americans are still planning to drive less?miles in the summer months, a reflection of the financial burden that high energy prices continue to place on American drivers. GasBuddy's survey shows that only 56% of Americans plan to drive for more than 2 hours this summer compared to 69% last year. The survey found that cost is the most important factor in travel decisions. 67% of respondents said gas prices directly affect their driving plans, and 36% say rising costs cause them to take less road trips.

GasBuddy's head of petroleum analyses, Patrick De Haan, said that this is the most volatile gas pump summer in recent years. He added that Americans will pay billions of dollars more to travel to their destinations, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He said it could take up to a year for prices fully to recover.

Analysts said that gasoline consumption was relatively high despite prices being at their highest in four years. However, they warned of a possible shortage as the summer travel season approaches.

Bob Yawger is the director of energy futures for Mizuho. He said, "Gasoline has been falling in storage for 14 weeks straight, including every week of the war in Iran. We are now going to stumble into Memorial Day weekend and the beginning of summer driving season. This will be within striking distance of an 11-year low." He said, "We're in a big mess as far as gasoline goes." The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. gasoline stocks were 214.2 million barrels at the end of last week. This is down 11.4 millions barrels compared to the same time last year. The?stockpiles fell 7% in a 28-day span at the end of April, which was the largest drop since more than five year.

The recent refinery failures, the approaching Atlantic Hurricane season, and the tightening of global inventories, will all add to the pressure on fuel prices.

A GasBuddy forecast on Wednesday indicated that the national average gasoline price would be $1.48 higher on Memorial Day this year compared to the previous year. Prices could also reach $5 per gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted throughout the summer.

John Kilduff is a partner at Again Capital. He said: "We are very concerned about the fact that we're drawing down inventories globally at an incredible pace. And global demand has found its way to us not only for crude oil, but also for refined products."

(source: Reuters)