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Maguire: South America's ascent as a key crude oil supplier swing supplier
South America has quietly emerged as an important new source of global crude flow. While oil markets are fixated on disruptions to Middle East exports in 2026 and the surging U.S. production, South America will be a major player. The region, led by Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela, has seen the biggest increase in oil exports this year of any producing block. This is reshaping trade patterns globally, and reinforcing Atlantic basin's position in global supply. The shift?has been?gradual?, dispersed?and largely uncoordinated? In aggregate, this is turning South America into an invisible swing supplier. Overlooked Oil market attention has been focused on the collapse of crude oil exports to date from the Middle East. Kpler, a commodities intelligence company, shows that the region has accounted for 43% of seaborne oil exports during the last decade. This is a major factor in anchoring the global crude trade. The near-total closing of the Strait of Hormuz in March has reduced shipments by over a quarter from January to May, compared with the previous year. This leaves a shortfall of approximately 675 million barrels. This gap is so large that no single producer can quickly fill it, and the markets are forced to rely heavily on their inventories. This has increased the importance of a growing supply from elsewhere, particularly South America. Exports have been reduced by several exporters this year to help offset some of the disruption. South America has seen the largest increase in exports, with a gain of 155 million barrels, surpassing all other regions. RAPID RISE According to Kpler, among the 10 nations that have increased crude oil exports most in 2026, United States ranks first. They registered a nearly 112-million barrel increase from January to May in comparison to the same period in 2025. South America has made a more significant contribution, both structurally and in terms of its size. Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela are the three countries that have seen the largest annual increase in crude oil shipments, adding collectively around 145 millions barrels. With the addition of 12 million barrels in Argentina, these key nations have seen gains exceeding 157 million barrels over the previous year. South America's expansion has been curtailed by a few small declines in export volumes this year. However, the region still shipped 787 million barrels from January to may, a record. This represents an 84% increase compared to the 430 million barrels produced in the same period of 2021. Brazil and Guyana have been the driving forces behind this regional expansion. Brazil is the top exporter in the region since 2019. This was the year that it overtook Venezuelan shipments for the first. The total Brazilian crude oil exports from January to May grew by 71%, going up from 211 million barrels to 361 million this year. This 'growth spurt' has been overshadowed, however, by the rapid increase in oil exports from Guyana. The country only began exporting in 2020 but has already increased its loadings from 17 million barrels per year in?2021 up to 137 million this year. The 700% increase in Guyana’s oil exports was the largest among major oil exporters during that time period. It helped to keep South America as a major source of oil despite the steady decline in Venezuela’s output. Following massive investments by Exxon, the Uaru and Whiptail oil projects should begin production within the year. Guyana is expected to export nearly all its additional barrels, as it does not have a refining facility of its own. Add to that the expected growth in Venezuela's exports, and South America is well positioned to continue its expansion on the oil markets and establish itself as an important source of oil outside the Middle East. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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India approves $1 Billion Fund to Help Airlines Weather Fuel Cost Surge
India approved a fuel stabilisation fund of 100 billion rupees ($1.05 billion), on Wednesday, to keep the cost of jet fuel down for airlines that are being hit by rising fuel costs due to the Iran war. The government announced that the assistance would be provided in the form of interest-free advances for oil marketing companies to cover the under-recoveries, the gap between market-linked jet fuel prices and the moderated rate charged to airlines. The measure "will help protect and maintain domestic and international air services,?ensuring continuity of service," was added. IndiGo shares, India's biggest?airline reversed their course and?traded up 1%. The rising cost of jet fuel has impacted airlines around the world. It can account for as much as 40% of their operating costs. Reporting by CK 'Nayak, Hritam?Mukherjee & Abhijith?Ganapavaram. Tanvi Mehta wrote the article. (Editing by YP. Rajesh, Mark Potter and Mark Potter).
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Document shows that the EU diplomatic arm suggested that a naval mission be assigned to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and take on a 'primary' role.
According to a document seen by?, the European Union diplomatic'service' has proposed that the Aspides mission of the bloc 'take the primary role' in 'clearing''mines' in the Strait of Hormuz 'when conditions permit' as Europe's participation to a Franco/British initiative. In a 'note dated 26 May, the European External Action Service stated that the situation "requires a meaningful contribution from the Union" towards an "ad-hoc coalition led by France and the UK", which "will be materialized once the conditions permit and are separated from the belligerents". It was suggested that EUNAVFOR ASPIDES be given the task of 'undertaking the primary role' in mine clearance efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, as a 'contribution' from the EU to the FR-UK ad-hoc Coalition,' in a note circulated among EU member states. It is unclear if all 27 EU member states would agree to change the Aspides mission’s mandate. Reporting by Lili Bayer
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Russia accuses Ukraine that a drone attack on a bus killed eight civilians
Russia accused Ukraine on Wednesday of killing eight civilians in a drone attack on a passenger bus travelling through a Russian-controlled part of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Region. Denis Pushilin said that the Ukrainian drone struck the bus as it stopped in the settlement of Yenakiievo, Donetsk to pick up passengers, on its route from Moscow to Simferopol, in Russia-controlled Crimea. In a statement, he claimed that Kyiv forces had "committed another act of unprecedented inhuman aggression." The?Ukraine, which like Russia denies targeting civilians, did not immediately comment. 53 people were registered for the bus. Russian investigators have opened a criminal investigation into the "terrorist attack" and are working to identify those responsible. Investigators released video footage of the wreckage. The interior of the bus was totally burned out and its windows were all broken. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, described the attack in terms of a Ukrainian manhunt against civilians. Rodion Miroshnik - a special ambassador to the ministry - said that the attack was aimed at intimidating civilians. Miroshnik said that Ukraine used Western military and financial assistance "to paralyse civil transport links?and create unbearable conditions for living." Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine that killed 23 people. Moscow claimed that the attack was in response to a deadly Ukrainian attack on a dormitory within Russian-controlled Luhansk, which Kyiv has denied targeting. Reporting by buro, Maxim Rodionov and Jekaterina Glubkova from London and Tokyo. Editing by Andrew Osborn & Ros Russell.
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Shein fined $26 Million by France for violating consumer rules; Shein will challenge
France fined Shein, a fast fashion company, about EUR22 million ($26million) for?issues regarding returns, product information, and order confirmations. The penalty was deemed disproportionate by the firm, which has vowed not to accept it. Shein was fined EUR16,7 million for 'order confirmation' issues and EUR5,8 million for issues relating to returns and environmental quality information. Shein's spokesperson said in a press release that "technical issues with no impact on the consumer and which have already been addressed when?necessary" were used to justify an exceptional penalty. "We intend to contest both sanctions in their entirety." Shein was fined 40 million Euros by France in July for false discounts. The authorities also wanted to suspend the marketplace but Paris' Court of Appeals in March rejected this move. Shein has been under scrutiny since November when the French consumer watchdog discovered sex dolls that looked like children and banned weapons on the site. Serge Papin, Minister for Small and Medium-sized Businesses, said in a X post that "we will continue to take action" until these platforms completely change their business practices - or they leave our'market.
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Airport terminal damaged in attack by Iran on Kuwait.
The foreign ministry announced on Wednesday that an Iranian attack targeted 'civil facilities' in Kuwait including the international airport and diplomatic missions. The statement didn't specify which diplomatic missions had been damaged. The attack marks an increase in tensions for the oil-rich Gulf nation, which has been relatively calm since April 8, when a ceasefire was declared in the?Iran war. Iran launched a salvo of missiles and drones against Kuwait, a close U.S. ally as well as other Gulf states. State news agency reported that the early morning attack at Kuwait International Airport resulted in several injuries and forced authorities to divert flight routes. According to the General Civil Aviation Authority, the attack caused "severe damages"?to the terminal 1 building of the airport. Kuwait Airways announced that it would be rescheduling its flights on Wednesday. The civil aviation authority announced shortly after that Kuwait Airways, the country's flag carrier, had resumed flight operations from Terminal 4?after assessing damage and taking safety precautions. The U.S. Military said earlier that two Iranian missiles fired towards Kuwait either 'fell short' or 'broke apart in mid-flight. Three missiles launched at Bahrain were intercepted by U.S. forces and Bahraini forces. Central Command posted on X that a second wave of Iranian drones that targeted U.S. troops in Kuwait did not hit their targets. They also said that Iranian missiles launched at?regional neighbors?didn't strike?their target. U.S. forces responded by striking Qeshm Island, intercepting Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Andrew Heavens, Ros Russell, and Kate Mayberry)
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Portugal General Strike over Labour Reform halts Trains, Flights, and Shuts Schools
Unions protested against the government's labour re-form plans, and a second general strike in six months caused disruptions across Portugal on Wednesday. Trains were stopped, hundreds of flights cancelled, and schools closed as a result. After talks with unions failed, Portugal's centre-right minority government will likely pass a bill that proposes changes to more than 100 articles of labour code in order to increase productivity and spur economic growth. Tiago 'Oliveira', the head of Portugal's biggest umbrella union CGTP which called for the general strike said that the reform will worsen the conditions of workers by entrenching the precarious nature, deregulating the working hours, easing dismissals, and curbing parental and strike protections. Rodrigo Azevedo is a 30-year old bank employee. He said that the reform would force young workers to "stuck in a precarious contract for life", forcing them to work an extra 50 hours per week without any additional pay, instead of the standard 40. He said that the labor package was a threat to not only the future of young employees, but also to "our present". Lisbon's Metro shut down. The state-owned railway CP has suspended all long-distance and regional trains. In response to a nationwide nursing walkout, schools closed across the country?due a staff shortage. Hospitals also postponed many surgeries and appointments. Iberia is expecting a reduction of 50% to 75%. Portugal's flag-carrier TAP will only operate 79 out of its 300+ daily flights on Wednesday. The reform aims to make it easier for companies to dismiss workers without cause, allow them not reinstate employees in cases of illegal dismissal, provided that they pay compensation, and lift the limits on outsourcing. A strike earlier in December was the only general shutdown since 2013 protests against austerity.
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India's fuel consumption outlook is affected by price increases and slowing industrial activity
India is expected to have less growth this year in its gasoline and diesel consumption after a series?of price hikes last week that reflected?higher fuel costs caused by the Iran War,?"with 'early signs stress in the trucking industry already evident. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum have implemented four rounds of increases in prices since mid-May. Earlier they had held off due to the elections. The price of gasoline is now 7.8% more expensive, while diesel prices are 8.6% higher. Analysts believe that there may be further price increases, which will likely dampen the demand even more. Retailers are still selling fuels below market rates. They are losing an average of 5.5 billion rupees (57 million dollars) per day. India's slowing fuel sales growth, as the world's largest importer and consumer of fuel, will dampen global demand, now that China has reached its peak in transportation fuel consumption. Dylan Sim, analyst at FGE NexantECA, said: "We expect India's gas demand growth to fall to between 3.5-3.7% by 2026 due to reduced discretionary driving." This compares to an earlier estimate that 4% growth. The consultancy also reduced its forecast growth in diesel demand from 2.5% to 2%. Moody's Indian Rating Arm ICRA has revised its forecast of gasoline demand growth to 3%-4% for the current financial year, down from 5%-6% in the period before war. Diesel demand is expected to remain flat or even shrink, compared to an earlier forecast of 2%-3% growth. Prashant Vashisth said that diesel and gasoline prices could increase inflation, which could harm end-user demand. He said that the Middle East conflict could also lead to increased logistics and shipping costs. This would have a negative impact on diesel demand. LESS INDUSTRIAL EXPLOITATION AFFECTS TRUCKERS Since the war, oil prices in the world have risen by 40% and are now trading at around $100 a barrel. Before the conflict, a fifth of all oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz. In the trucking industry, there are signs of a?lower demand for diesel due to?slower industrial activity. SP Singh, senior Fellow at the Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training, stated that freight prices had fallen between 13% and 15 % on three quarters of the key long-haul routes, despite an increase in fuel prices. Singh noted that drivers have to wait longer before returning from trips. "Truckers do not get return tonnages. He said there is a 3-5 day delay because the manufacturing process has slowed. This is impacting their revenue, as their "round trips per months have been reduced." According to preliminary data, Indian gasoline retailers saw their sales rise 2.8% in May compared to a year ago. Gasoil sales also increased 0.9%. This compares to April's figures, which showed a 6.8% rise in gasoline sales and a 0.8% growth for gasoil.
World Cup offers North American transit the chance to shine or be booed
For some North American rail and bus operators, the 2026 World Cup will be their biggest audition.
Some ground transportation companies are warming up for a new audience. With gasoline and airfare prices on the rise, long airport security lines, 104 World Cup games in 16 cities across four time zones, in the United States and Canada, they say that they want to win the hearts of this new audience.
Conan Cheung is the chief operations officer of LA Metro, which operates the public transport system in the Los Angeles area.
This event will show visitors from abroad that California is much more than a city with congested highways. Cheung added that it was also a means to encourage more Angelenos to use the growing public transportation system.
It's a demand that public transport advocates in the U.S.A. and Canada have made for years, especially where infrastructure is sparse on shared transit and residents are reluctant to give up their cars.
Transit providers can provide services to people who don't use transit every day, said Yonah Freimark, principal research associate of the Washington-based Urban Institute. Many World Cup fans from the U.S. and Canada don't use transit services on a regular basis.
Freemark said that the stakes for companies are high to provide a positive rider experience.
They should make sure the services are of high quality, and are not overly expensive. Because the people riding the transit agency will form an opinion about them -- and they have a chance to prove they can deliver a good service.
GROUND OPERATORS: TRICKY BALANCING Act
Many transportation operators are limited in capacity, and customers may not be able to find a seat on match days.
Fuel costs are on the rise and ground operators may need to pass some of these costs onto customers.
Freemark said that transit operators have to find a way to balance this. Freemark said that transit operators are trying to attract new customers, but they also want to avoid angering regular commuters who depend on the services.
FlixBus and its sister brand Greyhound offer World Cup fans the largest transport network in North America. The company said that it has seen a high demand for travel between the tournament cities. Some departures have already been sold out, while others are filling up quickly.
FlixBus has announced that it will be investing heavily in the latest technology and new buses ahead of the World Cup. It is also focused on ensuring buses arrive and depart on time.
What is important is that every Flix experience is a positive one. This is how we grow our business. This is an excellent opportunity", said Flix North American CEO Kai Boysan.
"We'll welcome all new customers, and we want to show them what a difference we've made and what an amazing experience they will have."
Travelers are 'looking for alternatives'
FlixBus believes that travelers might prefer buses to planes, as buses are a direct and more affordable way of getting between cities.
The cost of flying is increasing and airports are overcrowded. Travelers are looking for alternatives. "And there we are," said Boysan.
Not all options for ground transportation are affordable.
NJ Transit drew the attention they didn't want when it announced the $150 round-trip fare for the 30-minute ride from Manhattan to a stadium in New Jersey that will host eight games, including the final on July 19. This is a trip that usually costs less than $12.
NJ Transit says that it must cover an additional $48 million for crowd control, security and other World Cup-related costs.
NJ Transit, after much protest, reduced the fare from $80 to $98, claiming that it was able to find more advertising in order to cover their costs. A shuttle bus that ran the same route was reduced to $20, down from $80 originally. The host committee used local school buses for more seats.
The cost of a round-trip train ticket from Boston's city center to the stadium that will host seven World Cup games is $80 instead of the usual $20-30. A bus trip will cost $95.
U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, a Democrat, said FIFA should be doing more.
"Charging over 11 times the usual fare for a rail ride is a rip-off, plainly and simply." FIFA is "making billions" from this World Cup, said Schumer after the price of the train ride to New Jersey MetLife Stadium's original fare was announced.
The FIFA should pay for the trip, and not the New York fans."
FIFA said that high transit fares will push fans to find other ways to get to the stadium.
PHILADELPHIA IS OFFERING FREE RIDE HOME FROM MATCHES
Some local operators have not raised their prices.
"Our regular fare is $1.75 so people can pay that," said Cheung, LA Metro. "We will honor any discounts that we offer."
Airbnb, the sponsor of the six matches in Philadelphia, will provide a free ride back to their homes for fans who pay $2.90 to take the train.
Amtrak, the national railroad of the United States, said that it is preparing for fans traveling between cities to attend matches.
Amtrak's director of communications, W. Kyle Anderson said: "We are committed to operating a world class railroad... ensuring that our infrastructure is ready for new and returning customers." (Reporting from Toronto by Frank Pingue and Winnipeg by Ed White, Editing by Rosalba o'Brien).
(source: Reuters)