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A train derails near northern France, injuring at least 44 people
The French railway operator and French authorities confirmed that a train derailed in Normandy in northern France between Rouen-Caen on Friday night at around 7:30 pm local time. The head of the local authority Jean-Benoit Albertini told reporters that one of the injured was in a critical condition and had to be evacuated via helicopter. A spokesperson for the French police said that the train 'derailed after hitting an unknown object. The French railway operator SNCF said an investigation was underway to determine the cause of this accident. In a post on X, French Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot revealed that the train carried 180 passengers. He added that 140 firefighters were at the scene to help the injured passengers and drivers. The local authority,?prefecture Seine-Maritime, warned the public to avoid the area. SNCF announced that the train service between Rouen, Caen,?Caen, and Le Havre has been?suspended' and a'replacement bus services will be in place.
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USDA report report fails in its attempt to reverse EU wheat's decline
European wheat prices fell on Friday after U.S. grain forecasts did not provide enough positive news to counteract a bearish mood that had pushed the price to a two-week low in earlier'session. The daily session for December wheat traded on Paris' Euronext ended with a loss of 1.6%, or EUR241.25 per metric ton. The benchmark contract fell to a 2-week low at EUR240.25 earlier in the day, from a contract peak of EUR259.25. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly "supply and Demand" forecasts for world wheat ending stocks on Friday. These were slightly higher than average estimates. Investors who had built up a large position in wheat were encouraged to take profits by the report's publication. Prices were also affected by diplomatic efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Commerzbank, which announced its forecasts on Friday, increased their year-end wheat prices, citing the ongoing attacks by Russia and Ukraine against each other's port. The CBOT wheat price at the end the year is now $7, up previously from $6.50, and the Euronext wheat price at EUR240, up previously from EUR220. The market is still bouncing between the bearish expectation of a stable shipping agreement in the Black Sea and the bullish expectation that Russia and Ukraine will continue to attack ports and shipping. Importers from Egypt and Libya showed an interest in small quantities of 11.5% protein wheat at $300-$305 per ton C&F for shipment between September/October. According to a trader, Pakistan's wheat tender of 750,000 tons next week will likely?attract mainly Romanian or Bulgarian offers and possibly include Ukrainian wheat that is transported overland to Romania. Pakistan could cancel the tender if prices are well above $300 per ton c&f. As Rhine water levels dropped, ships were only able to sail partially loaded and transport costs increased.
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Poste Italiane acquires Telecom Italia for 66.6% at the end of the offer period
Poste Italiane secured a 66.6% share in Telecom Italia (TIM)'s capital. Calculations based on stock exchange data were revealed on Friday at the conclusion of the main phase for the takeover bid by the state-backed company. Poste, who had previously acquired a 20% stake in TIM, increased its cash component by 18%, to EUR1.97 a share. It also confirmed an exchange ratio of 0.218 newly -issued Poste?shares for each TIM share. At Friday's closing price, the bid was valued at around EUR13 billion. Borsa Italiana (the Italian stock exchange) reported that the take-up of the bid for the former Italian telephone monopoly had reached 58.2%. Poste waived its initial acceptance threshold of 66.67% for this upcoming?week. The offer period will reopen between September 21 and 25.
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Tesla targets European freight market by releasing long-delayed semi truck
Tesla will bring its Semi-electric truck to Europe, expanding its reach beyond North America. It is looking to gain a foothold in the heavy-duty market where competitors already sell battery-powered models. Elon 'Musk-led 'automaker will reveal European specifications and launch information at the IAA Transportation Trade Fair in Hanover Germany next week. It said in a posting on X. The European push comes almost a decade after Tesla unveiled the Semi back in 2017. The company initially planned to produce the Semi by 2019, but this timeline was continually delayed because the company prioritized the supply of battery cells for its passenger vehicles. Tesla began limited deliveries in late 2022 to customers such as PepsiCo, including the United States. Tesla announced in April that the first "Semi" had been produced on a Nevada high-volume line. In its shareholder update for July, Tesla only stated that Semi production would start in 2026 and removed an earlier forecast of volume production this summer. Tesla's German language website lists the version of?truck that has a range up to 550km (342 miles), with a combined gross weight of 40 tonnes and an energy consumption of around 1 kilowatt hour per kilometer. The 'company' said that the truck is able to take off with electric power up to 25 kW and weighs around 9,100 kg without a cargo or trailer. The truck can recover 60% of its range within 30 minutes by using Tesla's Megacharger network, which the company claims is capable of delivering up to 800 kilowatts. Tesla also cited dedicated service centers and route-based scheduling as features that would reduce downtime.
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QatarEnergy is seeking US LNG deals until 2031, according to sources
QatarEnergy has been in talks with several producers about securing multi-year U.S. contracts for liquefied natural gas through 2031. This is to replace the capacity that was destroyed by Iranian attacks, which will take years to fix. Two sources confirmed that discussions are underway with Venture?Global and Woodside. Sources said that the contract talks were part of QatarEnergy's effort to replace volumes lost from its Ras-Laffan facility, after Iranian strikes damaged two of its 14 gas-to liquids (GTL), and two LNG trains. QatarEnergy has also changed its approach from purchasing dozens of U.S. LNG spot cargoes in order to meet commitments made to some of their Asian clients. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated in March that the repairs will sideline 12.8 millions tons of LNG capacity per year for three to fiveyears. QatarEnergy, which halted its production in March, has renewed force majeure notifications monthly. Most recently, they were extended to November. Further extensions are possible if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, according to the sources. QatarEnergy Trading - the trading arm of QatarEnergy - which managed 10 million tonnes of the company's portfolio of LNG - is looking to achieve 2-3 million metric tonnes per annum until 2031. A fourth source stated that "They'll have to buy anything they can." QatarEnergy has not responded to an immediate request for comment. Venture Global and Cheniere declined comment while Woodside LNG stated that it would not comment on speculations about the market. According to research firm Rapidan Energy, 25 million metric tonnes of LNG are available for sale in U.S. construction projects. Rapidan data shows that Venture Global has 10 mtpa of LNG uncontracted. Cheniere, Woodside Energy, and Sempra have 6 mtpa each available. Qatar's pursuit of LNG volumes to deliver to its?customers indicates that Qatar now sees a risk in their ability to export LNG over several years, said Saul Kavonic. He is the head of energy advisory and research at MST Marquee. He added that "it signals that Qatar?considers the Strait of Hormuz disruption may prove to be longer lasting and the damage to Qatari?LNG infrastructure is more extensive than originally hoped, and it may take longer to fix." Around 80% of Qatar LNG exports are usually exported to buyers in Asia. Many clients in Asia began to look for alternatives to Qatari Gas due to the uncertainty of when flows would resume through this major waterway. According to a fifth party, some market participants are testing scenarios where no Qatari gas will be available.
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QatarEnergy is seeking US LNG deals until 2031, according to sources
QatarEnergy has been in talks with several producers about securing multi-year contracts for?U.S. Three trading and industry sources said that QatarEnergy is negotiating with several producers to secure multi-year?U.S. Two of the sources cited said that discussions were held with Venture 'Global, Cheniere, and Woodside. Sources said that the contract talks were part of QatarEnergy's effort to replace volumes lost from its Ras-Laffan facility, after Iranian strikes damaged two of its 14 gas-to liquids (GTL), and two LNG trains. QatarEnergy has also changed its approach from purchasing dozens of U.S. LNG spot cargoes in order to meet commitments with some of their Asian clients. The company is now looking for longer-term solutions. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated in March that repairs will sideline 12.8 millions tons of LNG capacity per year for three to five more years. QatarEnergy, which halted production back in March, has issued force majeure notifications every month. The most recent extension was to November. Further?extensions are possible, as the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, according to the sources. QatarEnergy Trading is the trading arm of QatarEnergy, which managed 10 million tons of LNG for the company. One source said that the company was looking to achieve 2-3 millions metric tons annually through 2031. A fourth source stated that "They'll have to buy anything they can." QatarEnergy has not responded to an immediate request for comment. Venture Global, Cheniere and Woodside LNG declined to comment. Saul Kavonic is the head of energy research and advisory at MST Marquee. He said that Qatar sees a risk in their ability to export LNG over several years. He added that "it signals that Qatar believes the disruption of Strait of Hormuz could be longer lasting and the damage to Qatari's LNG infrastructure has been more extensive than originally hoped and repair may take longer." Around 80% of Qatar LNG exports are usually exported to Asian buyers. Many clients in Asia began to look for alternatives to Qatari gas due to the uncertainty surrounding when flows will resume through 'the major waterway. According to a fifth party, some market participants are testing scenarios where no Qatari gas will be available.
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Oil tanker prices reach record highs after US and Iranian shipping attacks
This week, the cost of'shipping' oil in the largest tankers reached record levels following the most intense wave of attacks against shipping since the U.S. - Iran war began late in February. According to Baltic Exchange, the shipping rate for supertankers, also known as very large crude carriers (VLCCs), loading oil in the Gulf of Oman to be shipped to China, reached around 450 on Worldscale, which is?roughly?$11.50 per barrel. The rate is at its highest level since it was introduced earlier this year after the U.S. and Israel war against Iran. The increase in rates is a sign of 'how the Middle East conflict feeds into the wider economy. The rise in shipping costs could add to inflationary pressures, and increase costs for consumers and businesses already feeling the effects of a growing conflict. Iran announced on Wednesday that it had launched 10 attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, after the U.S. destroyed five Iranian oil tanks. Four Yemeni government officials said that the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, reached Perim, a strategic island in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait on Friday, possibly tightening their hold on one of the world's most important shipping routes. Ioannis Pandimitriou, analyst at Vortexa, said that "repeated attacks between the U.S. Navy and Iran continue to push freight rates in the Gulf up to new heights." Papadimitrou said that the higher risk of operating in the Middle East Gulf and the surrounding area is driving up the Gulf of Oman's freight rates, out of fear of Iranian reprisals. This naturally reduces the number of available tankers in the region. The recent military escalation is having a wider impact, with VLCC rates also reaching record highs on the West Africa-Asia route.
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Travel chaos caused by the protest of Polish train drivers who slow down during safety demonstrations
On Friday, Poland's railways were impacted by widespread disruption as train drivers protested safety concerns and slowed down their trains. Around two thirds of services experienced delays on what is one of the busiest weeks of the year. A train that hit a truck and derailed at a level-crossing in central Poland Wednesday killed one person and sent 10 to the hospital. This is just the latest of a series of accidents caused when road users ignore warning signs. "We do not view this as protest but as an act of desperation," said Sebastian Piernik. He added that the union's demands for safety were?ignored in the past. "The fundamental problem is to ensure that drivers are held accountable for crossing the tracks at a time when there's a red signal." Train drivers at all level crossings slowed to 20 kilometres an hour (12 mph), as part of the protest that lasted until Friday noon local time. As a consequence, train operator PKP intercity reported that as of 12 p.m. (1100 GMT), 203 of 290 services?faced delays averaging 38 minutes. Alicja Kiman, a resident of Gdansk, said that she wasn't surprised by the protest because?motorists are?often reckless. She said, "I've seen garbage trucks break the barrier twice - forcing themselves in when it was closing." The government announced that it would introduce harsher 'penalties for drivers disregarding warning signals at crossings, and it spent hundreds of millions?zlotys to improve safety. Dariusz Klimczak, Infrastructure Minister, told reporters that "these changes will result in the risk of losing a driver's licence" for drivers who enter a road/rail crossing with RED light on.
Bousso: The quest of ROI-Gulf Exporters to bypass Hormuz is reshaping the region.
Middle East oil producers will have to face the consequences. The Iran War exposed the dangers in relying solely on one chokepoint to export vital oil and gas. Gulf governments were left with a clear strategy imperative: diversify at all costs. A blockade by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz was long viewed as an "event of doomsday". It would never occur. Experts believed it would take a massive effort from the military and that Tehran wouldn't be willing to stop its exports. These assumptions were 'proven painfully incorrect. Iran used cheap drones and small vessels to impose a nearly airtight blockade, but continued to export its oil.
The result was a global energy crisis that affected the entire region.
The countries lost export revenue and had to close down 11 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), along with refineries and LNG installations.
Washington and Tehran agreed to negotiate an agreement for a permanent ceasefire, but the "Hormuz Genie" can't be put back in the bottle. Future closures now pose a persistent and real risk to the region's economy and its people.
As a consequence, the Gulf countries have become more dependent on alternative routes to export energy, chemicals, and fertilisers.
Pipeline Dreams
Saudi Arabia is the best example of how building pipelines to circumvent Hormuz can be beneficial.
Before the war, Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, diverted?60% (or?60 million barrels) of its oil shipments from the Gulf Coast to Yanbu on the Red Sea. In the 1980s, Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, built the 1,200-kilometre (745 mile) route to protect against such a scenario.
The strategic foresight has paid off.
In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that it expected Saudi Arabia's economic growth to be 3.1% by 2026. This is just 1.4 percentage point less than its pre-war prediction.
Qatar, on the other hand, has no alternative routes to export its oil and LNG, so its economy could contract by 8.6% this year after growing by 2.8% last year, according to IMF.
Other regional players are taking note.
United Arab Emirates were able to bypass Hormuz in part by using their pipeline to the Fujairah oil terminal located outside the Strait. Fujairah's oil terminal was damaged by Iranian airstrikes, but the UAE still managed to export 1.8 million barrels per day, or roughly half its pre-war production.
Abu Dhabi, who left OPEC last May to pursue a growth strategy that is ambitious, has now accelerated construction of a new pipeline, which will double export capacity through Fujairah before 2027.
Iraq is still in a very unenviable situation. The majority of the country's production is concentrated in southern Iraq, which makes it heavily dependent on Hormuz. Companies and authorities in Iraq are therefore looking at ways to improve and expand the northern export routes via Turkey and Syria. Security and political concerns are still major obstacles.
THE QATARI CONUNDRUM
Qatar and Kuwait are faced with a much more complex problem. Both countries, lacking alternative export routes on their own territory, will be forced to rely upon?neighbors to circumvent Hormuz.
Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. For Qatar to gain access to beyond the Strait of Gibraltar, it would have to build a pipeline across the Red Sea or through Saudi Arabia, either via Fujairah, Oman or the UAE. Each option has its own geopolitical and economic complications.
These projects would require the construction of new liquefaction capacity outside the Gulf region, which would drive costs up.
This would leave Qatar heavily reliant on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, countries whose relationship with Doha has been strained in recent times. This poses political and strategic risks, which Qatar has sought to avoid for years.
Kuwait faces a similar dilemma. To develop alternative export routes, it would be necessary to deepen energy integration with Saudi Arabia. This highlights how geography could reshape future regional alliances.
DIVERSIFICATION OVERSEAS
Diversification of the Middle East is not the only response that has gained traction.
Gulf national oil companies have been expanding overseas operations to create a hedge for future disruptions in the region. QatarEnergy (formerly Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) and QatarEnergy have been at the forefront of building international portfolios that include oil, gas, and renewables.
This trend will likely accelerate. Acquiring stakes overseas in upstream assets such as refineries, LNG installations and storage terminals would generate valuable income streams, which are not exposed to Gulf risks. Such investments are a great way to ensure that you can continue to grow and be resilient in a world without the certainty of Hormuz.
The race to diversify will shake up government strategies, reshuffle alliances and redirect investments as Middle East producers start the recovery process. It could, in other words reshape this region for many decades.
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(source: Reuters)