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Maguire: 'Roi-Hormuz is half-open, but tanker prices are recovering in hope:

Oil tankers behave as if the Strait of Hormuz was reopening, even though the waterway is only partially navigable.

The signals are clear, from ship tracking data to the freight rates: Owners and charterers have moved early to position their vessels for a possible return to Gulf exports.

The gap between expectations and reality is still wide. This leaves the global oil transportation system on a fragile "middle ground" between crisis and recovery.

Signs of Recovery

Real-time vessel movement is the most obvious?evidence? of adjustment.

The number of tanker transits in Hormuz has begun to increase. During the conflict they were reduced to a fraction of their normal levels.

The flow of vessels through the strait was around 90-110 per day before the war started on 28 February. However, the number of vessels dropped by over 90% during the peak disruption.

Recent data show that traffic is picking up again. On some days, dozens of ships are crossing the channel, but levels are still well below pre-crisis standards and subject to sudden reversals.

This stop-start recovery highlights a crucial point: The system is still not functioning normally. Shipowners are testing the system in real-time to see if it's safe and commercially viable.

On the Road Again

Ballast movements - empty ships heading to the Gulf - provide a much clearer indication of future expectations. These signals are very strong.

The data from ship tracking shows that more empty tankers are entering the Gulf. This includes LNG carriers connected to Qatar, which have resumed voyages in Hormuz - for the first time since the conflict began.

Exports of laden goods are also still constrained. Cargo volumes are still half what they were pre-conflict, reflecting operational limitations and persistent security risks.

This divergence can be critical. This divergence shows that the fleet has committed ships ahead of actual demand -- in anticipation of cargoes following.

This positioning effort is compounded with one of the biggest shipping backlogs ever recorded. The Gulf is still clogged with hundreds of vessels, creating a bottleneck which could take several weeks to unwind.

The result is a fleet which is actively reshaping itself as congestion eases and access improves.

RATE MOVEMENTS

The freight rates reinforce this picture in an extremely dramatic way.

According to LSEG, earnings for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on key Middle East routes fell to their lowest level since the beginning of the conflict as vessels accumulated before the recovery of actual moveable cargoes.

The daily rate for a VLCC to China from the Middle East is currently around $287,000. This was down from over $500,000 just before the peace agreement was announced.

The rates for smaller tankers, on the other hand, have increased as the Arabian Gulf has a high concentration of vessels.

Fuel tanker rates from Nigeria to Netherlands, for example, have increased from $63,000 per day at the end of June to more than $112,000 today.

The fleet managers also sent refined product tankers to the Middle East, anticipating that regional refineries would need to clear their inventories accumulated during the conflict in order for them restart production.

In essence, the market is pricing a volatile mixture of limited supply, increased risk, and anticipated access.

The partial reopening of the Gulf is starting to change global trade patterns, which were drastically altered by the disruption.

Oil flows around Cape of Good Hope and other longer routes were required due to the severe restrictions on Hormuz traffic. This led to a significant increase in shipping distances, costs, and time.

Shipping analyst reports say that these diversions have pushed up the ton-miles demand, a key indicator of shipping activity. Distances for some trades almost tripled as vessels avoided chokepoints.

Early signs indicate that these patterns from the crisis era may begin to unravel as Gulf exports gradually resume. As of now, however, alternate routes are still being used, reflecting the persistent uncertainty about access through Hormuz.

A CONFIDENCE PLAY

The tanker market faces a constraint that is not purely physical. It's psychological and financial.

The security situation remains fluid as vessels are still subject to route control, regulatory ambiguity, and elevated war-risk costs.

Operators are evaluating not only whether they will be able to transit the Strait but also whether they will do so predictably, safely and profitably.

This caution is the reason why the'recovery of flows' is lagged behind the recovery of fleet positioning - and why the system is so unstable.

The tanker fleet is betting. The tanker fleet has made its bet.

The Strait of Hormuz is not a reopened corridor until ballast flows are converted into sustained cargo movement and transit numbers stabilise.

Oil?markets may be pricing in a return to 'normality. Tanker fleets are still dealing with the possibility that normalcy hasn't yet arrived.

The opinions expressed are those of Gavin Maguire a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)