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Everyone wants energy security after the Iran War, but how? Russell

The Iran war is likely to be the catalyst for nations that import energy to reduce their dependency on fossil fuels. These countries must find a way to do this that is both cost-effective and politically acceptable, while not creating new vulnerabilities. It is not an easy task. This debate is usually framed along 'left- and rightwing political faultlines. Progressives say that the conflict highlights the need for a faster transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy sources, while conservatives claim it highlights the need for more fossil fuel production outside of the Middle East. The U.S. and Israel launched the Iran war on February 28. This has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz was once used to transport close to 20% of global crude oil, refined products and LNG. The markets still price in a reopening, but risks surrounding the movement of fuel and crude from the Gulf are shifting. Iran will likely end up having some control over vessel movements. The Iran war is now the second major crisis for fuel-importing countries in the last four years. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia caused crude oil, fuel, LNG, and thermal coal prices to spike worldwide amid fears that Russian exports would be restricted. It is clear that the status quo cannot continue. The question now is, how can energy security be achieved? Australia, the world's largest diesel importer, is a prime case study of the dilemma fuel importers face. The country should either reopen its oil refinery, decades after closing most of its plants? Or accelerate its electrification in order to reduce its dependence on imported fuels. The answer to this question is complex, and it offers some important lessons.

REFINERY IDEA Australia imports about 80% its liquid fuel. The eight refineries that operated at the beginning of the millennium have now been reduced to two, each with a processing capacity of less than 100,000 barrels per days (bpd). According to Kpler, the country will import 861,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light and medium distillates by 2025. Diesel is expected to account for 60% of this, according data. Australia's government announced a pre-feasibility report for a new refinery, citing the threat of continued supply disruptions. It would be the first refinery built in 60 years if it were to be constructed. The plan is to build an oil refinery in Western Australia that will supply the mining and agriculture sectors. According to Kpler, the state is five times larger than France, but only has 3 million people. It imports 200,000 bpd light and middle distillates.

Perdaman is a fertilizer and urea manufacturer that has proposed the new refinery. The company describes it as "a game changer for Australian fuel safety." It may be true, but who would pay for it? A modern and economically viable refinery must have a capacity of at least 300,000. The refinery would have to be sufficiently complex to convert crude oil into light and middle distillates as residual fuels are not in high demand. The cost of a similar plant in Ghana, estimated at $12 billion, would be higher in Australia due to the higher costs for labour and land.

A new refinery would also require crude offloading, product export capabilities and storage tanks that could hold 90 days worth of crude imports for strategic reserves. It is possible to build a refinery of this size, but the question is if the cost is worth the return, since the refinery does not provide fuel security. The refinery would shift the reliance away from imported products and towards imported crude.

Would it be better instead to encourage mining companies to electrify? Fortescue Metals Group has done just that. According to Australia's third largest iron ore mining company, the move is already paying off. Renew Economy, a clean energy website, shows that Fortescue has benefited from its adoption of electric mining vehicles and renewable power generation by A$1.2 billion (840 million dollars) per year. Electricity is not only beneficial to farmers and miners. Australian consumers have also shifted to electric and hybrid cars. According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids, as well as so-called "mild", which are equipped with a small electric motor and battery, but cannot run solely on electricity, accounted for nearly half of all'sales in July. The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries reported that sales of EVs increased by more than three times in July compared to the same period a year ago. Plug-in hybrids also grew 157%, and'mild' hybrids jumped up 206%. This suggests consumers are reacting to concerns about fuel security. The Australian government may benefit in some way from both hybrid and conventional fuels. A new refinery would be a good investment, even though it is expensive. It will protect Australia from the current refined fuel crisis. A hybrid plan would reduce the political costs of the transition and give the country more time to speed up electrification in areas where it is economically feasible.

This strategy acknowledges that fossil fuels will likely be part of the mix for energy for at least another two decades while working to reduce dependence on them.

There are already signs that the process of learning this lesson is underway.

Vietnam, for example, is adopting policies that will boost domestic production and sales, as well as electric scooters. This is a significant shift, given that motorbikes remain the most popular mode of personal transport in this Southeast Asian nation with 102 million residents.

Thailand, meanwhile, is offering a subsidy up to 100,000 Baht ($3,020), as the country is building a rapid public charging infrastructure. Energy security is a national issue, but there are some common themes. Diversification of energy sources and consumption will be key.

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(source: Reuters)