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The container shipping rate surge fueled by tariffs is peaking

Financial analysts and maritime consultants say that container shipping rates continue to rise this week. This is fueled by a temporary tariff pause, which has been imposed between the U.S.

More than 80% percent of all goods are transported by ocean vessels. Container vessels like those operated by MSC and Maersk transport toys, apparel and parts from Walmart to Ford Motor Co. factories.

Drewry, a maritime consultancy, announced on Thursday that its World Container Index had risen 41% in a week to $3.527 for a 40-foot container. The index has risen 70% in the past four weeks due to the U.S. China trade truce of May 12, which reduced China tariffs from 145% to 30%, which had collapsed trade between two of the world's largest economies.

Drewry reported that freight rates from Shanghai, the home of the busiest U.S. port, to Los Angeles have risen by 57% in the last week to $5,876 a FEU and 117% over the past eight days. This rate is 2% lower than a year earlier and far below the rates of $10,000 or more seen at the peak of the COVID crisis.

In a note to clients, Jefferies shipping expert Omar Nokta stated that the Shanghai Containerized Index, which tracks spot prices from the busiest container ports in Shanghai, was on track to post another gain this coming week.

Nokta stated that the spot rate for the SCFI route from the U.S. West Coast to Canada was closer to $6,000.

He said that the rates for the second half are more likely to be at their peak, as they are in the range of $5,000 to $5500 per FEU.

Drewry's Container Forecaster predicts that demand will weaken in the second half this year. This would lead to rates falling again.

Drewry explained that the volatility and timing of the rate changes would depend on the legal challenges against Trump's tariffs, and the capacity changes resulting from the introduction of port charges on Chinese ships. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski in Los Angeles)

(source: Reuters)