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Maguire: Winners and losers of the US rollback on climate policies

The scrapping of U.S. federal regulations on climate change has thrown off the narratives about energy investors that had prevailed in this decade. It is causing a rethinking as to which sectors could now be winners and losers in the U.S. Energy space. The repeal of the Endangerment Finding essentially removes all legal foundations for federal regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a number of other rules that govern pollution standards and drive uptake of new clean energy technologies. Imminent court challenges are likely to cloud the picture on the impact of the repeal in the near future. Regulators, utilities, companies, and communities will all be working to fill the regulatory vacuum that results.

It is possible to draw some rough conclusions about which sectors will benefit and which ones may be affected by the new federal pollution standards, now that they have been diluted for the near future.

CUT TO COMPLIANCE

The repeal of federal emission laws will create a less regulated environment that is expected to be beneficial for firms engaged in the mining, distribution and combustion of fossil fuels as a source of power.

Utility companies with large coal and gas portfolios are likely to be the first winners of the federal regulation repeal on emissions. Compliance costs and regulatory risks will now drop sharply.

Investors have certainly been more positive about the sector after the news of the repeal was announced. The stock prices for American Electric Power and Duke Energy, as well as NRG, all moved higher in recent sessions.

Southern Company, and other fossil-fuel-reliant power networks have gained ground as well since the news. This suggests that investors are seeing greater upside potential in power networks which primarily burn fossil fuels for electricity generation.

Since the repeal of the law, shares in Peabody Energy - the U.S.'s largest coal miner - have also increased.

CLEAN TECH SETBACKS

The stocks of clean energy technologies and cutting-edge storage technology have?failed less well since the repeal announcement, as the federally-driven momentum towards cleaner energy has lost steam.

Vestas, the Danish manufacturer of offshore wind turbines, has seen its stock price come under new?pressure following the repeal announcement. This news 'looks to further dwindle U.S. interests in offshore wind projects.

Quantumscape, a U.S.-based solid-state battery manufacturer, also saw its shares fall as investors interpreted that the regulatory pivot would likely slow down the U.S. rollout of EVs.

EVgo, the operator of charging stations, was also tarred in the same way. Shares fell to their lowest level since mid-2024 just after the news about the repeal became official.

Recently, companies that provide software and services to manage grids and store energy have also suffered as the public's attention has shifted from traditional energy providers towards industries that facilitate energy transition.

After the repeal announcement, shares of STEM, an AI-driven company that assists utilities in managing grid power flows and Itron, a maker or sensors used to manage grid flow by utilities also suffered.

WHAT'S NEXT?

Even though investor sentiment has changed significantly in the U.S. Energy space since the Endangerment Finding repealed, there is no guarantee that fossil fuel companies are going to consistently outperform their clean energy counterparts.

The emissions from fossil fuel utilities can be a major risk.

Ironically, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and not the court system was responsible for regulating the pollution under the old federal pollution rules.

Nevertheless, now that the EPA is no longer in charge of this oversight, it's possible that the shield that protects heavy polluters will disappear. This could open the door for new lawsuits from communities that are affected by the harmful discharge from power stations and other facilities.

The threat of lengthy hearings and lawsuits could deter some utilities from continuing to operate coal plants that are decades old, even though the regulatory pressure for them to be closed has been lifted.

Many utilities who are under pressure to increase power supplies will still view combination of renewables with battery systems as the fastest way to deploy this extra power regardless of the new emission rules.

This could support the uptake of battery storage and solar panels across the country, even as fossil-fuel extractors gear up to increase?supplies.

This means that, even though the federal U.S. regulations on pollution are expected to be "quickly" scrapped, it is likely that the major players in producing and distributing electricity in the U.S. will take a much longer time to adjust their course.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)