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Where are the barrels of oil? IEA gap deepens confusion over looming glut: Bousso
The International Energy Agency (IEA) continues to predict a significant oil supply glut, but the uncertainty surrounding the location of nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day is putting this forecast into question. Since months, the oil market has been unable to find a direction. Prices have remained in a tight range as traders tried to understand starkly divergent projections of supply and demand from IEA and OPEC. The IEA has predicted a severe glut of oil this year and in the next year due to increased global production. The Paris-based agency's latest report, released on Tuesday provided an even more pessimistic outlook. It forecast a surplus in 2025 of 2,35 million barrels a day and 4 million bpd, or nearly 4%, of global demand, next year. OPEC on the other side expects that global oil supply will closely follow demand until 2026. This difference is remarkable, as it has never been seen before in the history of the largest commodity market in the world. Missing Barrels On Tuesday, the murky picture of crude oil became even more muddy when the IEA reported that it had been unable to account 1,47 million bpd in its global balances. This is the equivalent of 1,4% of the annual demand. The IEA's "unaccounted balance" for July was 850,000 bpd or 370,000 bpd overall for the second-quarter. This 1,47 million bpd number is a huge blind spot that has significant implications for global supply and demand. According to the IEA, supply exceeded demand by 2,04 million bpd during August. This means that, theoretically, oversupply can grow to 3.5 millions bpd, or even shrink to 500,000 bpd. This is a big difference which could have an impact on crude oil prices. The IEA calculates the global oil balance using data from official government sources as well as private companies and analysts who provide figures on production, consumption and exports. Due to the size of the oil market, it is not uncommon for forecasters' calculations to be "holes". This can be due to the delays in reporting by government agencies and the absence of certain data sets. In fact, the IEA updates its historical data regularly. In its May monthly report, the agency revised upwards significant amounts of recent oil demand. This included increasing 2024 oil usage by 350,000 barrels per day, turning a reported surplus into a deficiency. The sheer magnitude of missing barrels reported by the IEA in its August report should cause traders and investors to pause. This is especially true because it comes at a moment when the market has already been trying to make sense out of forecasters' wildly different projections. Barrels that disappear The IEA stated that the discrepancy in August "may be due to the delay of reporting data or the lack of data for non-OECD nations." It will take some time to fully account for the missing barrels. It is reasonable to believe that the missing barrels are due in part to two factors which have confounded the crude market for the past year: the trading and stockpiling of China. The first question is how much oil sanctioned is being traded. According to Kpler, the volume of crude oil transported by sea last week reached 1.25 billion barrels. This is the highest level since the Covid-19 Pandemic began. Oil held at sea, or "oil in water", has never been greater. This buildup on the seas could be a precursor for a dramatic increase in storage overland - and a significant global surplus. The picture is further complicated by the fact over a quarter (25%) of the oil in the water comes from countries that are under western sanctions, namely Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The majority of oil produced by these countries is transported in so-called "shadow" fleet tankers, which evade western sanctions and often hide their location by turning off satellite transponders. The IEA may have missed some barrels because it is difficult to track the movements of oil by sea. CRUDE HARDING There is also the issue of China's huge oil storage volumes. According to the IEA's forecast, global observed inventories – oil in storage and on vessels – grew by 225,000,000 barrels from January to August, reaching the highest level for four years. China, as the world's biggest oil importer, is clearly responsible for a large portion of the increase in inventories. Beijing, however, does not publicly disclose the size of its oil storage capacities or changes to inventories. In the absence government data, traders use secondary sources to estimate China's rapidly growing storage network. According to the IEA, Chinese crude stockpiles rose by 110,000,000 barrels between April 2025 and August 2025. This estimate is based on data provided by satellite analytics firm Kayrros. It is possible, given the lack firm data, that China's crude stock has increased by much more, and this could account for another part the IEA missing barrels. The IEA's mysterious missing barrels may indicate that the task of calculating production, consumption and exports in the vast global oil market will become even more difficult as geopolitics continue to obscure large portions of the market. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Analysts say that oil deliveries are disrupted due to congestion in Antwerp's port after the pilots' strike.
Analysts say that congestion in the Belgian Port Antwerp-Bruges is causing oil deliveries to be disrupted after a harbourpilots' strike. The port authority has reported up to 188 ships still waiting to berth, or depart. Analysts say oil deliveries are still disrupted, despite the fact that Flemish seapilots who have a crucial role in navigating vessels through dangerous or congested waters temporarily suspended their strike. The strike began on October 5, in protest at federal pension reforms. Backlogs have forced shipping lines, which are responsible for rerouting or delaying cargo, to strain supply chains. S&P Global Commodity Insights quoted market participants who said that strikes had slowed the arrivals into Europe. Antwerp is a major location for jet-fuel and diesel discharge. Port authorities reported that the logistics chain was operating at 70% capacity as of Wednesday. A national strike had caused additional disruption the day before. Port authorities reported that the ongoing slowdown is preventing traffic from resuming. The action will continue until Sunday, according to port officials. As of Wednesday night, 128 ships waited to enter the port and 60 remained in line for departure. The port reported that towage services, locks, and bridges were all fully functional, but it would take several days to clear the backlog. Zeebrugge is part of the port complex and has seen less disruption. Delays are expected to be resolved by late afternoon. (Reporting and editing by Kirsty Donovan; Alban Kacher)
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Data shows that sanctioned tankers transport gas condensate to China from Russias Arctic LNG 2
Despite Western sanctions against the project and the ships, data from LSEG and market sources showed that several tankers were delivering cargoes of gas condensate from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 to China. Gas condensate, a by-product of the liquefied gas industry, is used as a feedstock by refineries for naphtha production, diesel production, jet fuel and other petrochemicals. It can also be mixed with crude oil to make it less viscous. Before the U.S., EU and Russian sanctions were imposed over Moscow's conflict in Ukraine, Arctic LNG 2 was set to be one of Russia's biggest LNG plants. According to LSEG data and Kpler, at least nine LNG cargoes have been delivered from the project to China since August. CHINA'S GULEI PORT Shipping data revealed that while the exact volume of gas condensate produced on the project is not known, three cargoes of around 110,000 metric tonnes of condensate totaled were shipped to the Arctic port Vitino last year and stored in tanks. Novatek, the owner of 60% of Arctic LNG 2 previously used Vitino to export gas condensate before opening its processing facility in Ust-Luga on the Baltic coast in 2013. Novatek denies using sanctioned tankers to ship Arctic LNG 2. LSEG data and two sources on the market indicate that the Palau flagged tanker Elise loaded around 60,000 tons condensate in Vitino, Italy on 12 August and unloaded it at China's Gulei Port. The UK, Canada and the EU imposed sanctions on the tanker this year for transporting Russian oil and oil products. LSEG data revealed that another vessel, the Gambia flagged Nexus, left Vitino on August 29, with approximately 43,000 tons condensate, and is en route from China. The tanker Universal, which is subject to U.S. sanctions and EU restrictions, loaded 44,000 tons directly from Arctic LNG 2, and then travelled along Russia’s Northern Sea Route for ship-to-ship transfers near the Russian Far East Port of Zarubino. The NSR is a Russian alternative to the Suez Canal. It connects Russian port with China in the summer, saving up to 10 days of travel time compared to traveling via the Suez Canal. According to market sources, the condensate cargo from the Universal has been transferred to the Noble flying the Comoros flag and bound for Gulei. Ship-tracking data indicates that Universal loaded another condensate shipment from Arctic LNG 2 on October 12 and is now moving east along NSR.
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Officials say Indonesia is considering a 1% blend of sustainable aviation fuel by 2026.
Edi Wibowo, an official in the energy ministry, said that Indonesia, which is the largest palm oil producer in the world, was considering a plan requiring international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali, to use a blend of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), starting 2026. Pertamina, the Indonesian state energy company, has started to produce SAF partly made from used cooking oils (UCO) at one of its refinerys this year and plans to convert two more refineries to process UCO fuel. Edi stated that "the regulation for the gradual introduction of SAF is being drafted. It has been proposed to start in 2026, with an initial implementation rate of 1%." Indonesia is proposing to increase the SAF mix to 5% in 2035. According to a report by the Indonesia Palm Oil Strategic Studies, Indonesia could produce up to 3-4 million kilograms of UCO per year. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Bernadette Christopher)
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As the US invests in critical minerals, Washington lobbying is boosted by these firms.
A review of public documents and interviews with executives revealed that critical mineral companies have increased their lobbying efforts to Washington in order to benefit from the ambitious investments made by U.S. president Donald Trump to firms considered essential to national safety. The review revealed that at least 12 companies, including those in the lithium, copper and rare earths industries, as well as geothermal, have signed agreements with Washington lobbying firms. Influence campaigns have increased dramatically in recent years to secure federal investment, permit support and long-term contract guarantees. The White House is shifting its focus from the traditional emphasis on subsidies for industry to one that focuses on partial ownership of MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and other companies in order to counter China’s dominance on critical minerals. "Since the U.S. Government began giving away money earlier this year, all minerals boardrooms in America began to wonder, 'What about me?' Ken Hoffman is a commodity analyst with Red Cloud Securities, and former mining consultant. Hoffman, a commodity strategist with mining investment bank Red Cloud Securities and a former mining industry consultant, said that government funding was crucial despite recent JPMorgan moves to invest up $10 billion in vital minerals and other industries. Hoffman added that many private investors are still hesitant to fund junior miners or novel processing technologies. Stock prices have soared across the industry as companies try to align themselves with Washington’s industrial strategy. Sprott Lithium Miners ETF has, for example, risen more than 35% over the last month. Ballard Partners is run by Republican fundraiser Brian Ballard who was a Trump ally. He raised more than $50m for Trump's campaign in 2024. The Bernhardt Group is also linked to David Bernhardt who, during Trump's first tenure, ran the U.S. Interior Department is a major player in approving critical mineral projects. Bernhardt and Ballard have not responded to any requests for comments. To understand the complex industry, lobbyists must have a thorough understanding of geopolitics, science, trade, and procurement. They also need to be able to communicate with the 535 members in Congress and the hundreds of executive branch offices. Jim Sims, NioCorp's CEO, said that you need someone in Washington to educate lawmakers about what you are doing and the science involved. The company has been awarded $10 million by the Pentagon to develop a Nebraska scandium mining project. It is also being considered for a $800 million loan by the U.S. Export-Import Bank. NioCorp hired Navigators global in April. The firm's roster included Marco Rubio’s former legislative assistant Cesar Conda. Some companies who recently hired lobbyists have been in discussions with the administration, or landed deals. Lithium Americas hired Guidepost Strategies as a lobbying firm in July. This month, the company reached an agreement with Washington to exchange a 5% stake in its Thacker Pass project and its stock in General Motors for a $2.26billion loan. Filings reveal that the company has already paid Guidepost more than $200,000 this year. Tim Crowley is the vice president of Lithium Americas' government affairs. He said, "For years, we have worked to share with a variety of stakeholders the positive impact Thacker Pass has had, including Congress and the White House, as well as relevant federal agencies." Reports earlier in the month stated that Critical Metals Corp., who hired Cornerstone Government Affairs back in February, had held discussions with White House officials about a potential U.S. equity stake in its rare-earths deposit in Greenland. Cornerstone has received $210,000 from the company so far in this year. Tony Sage, Chairman of Critical Metals, said that the West's limited availability of rare earths made it "even more important" to make sure our deposit and vision were on the radars for key decision-makers in the United States. Since hiring Cassidy & Associates in November last year, United States Antimony paid them $130,000. The company was awarded a $245-million contract by the Pentagon Defense Logistics Agency last month. Gary Evans, CEO of U.S. Antimony, said that the lobbying firm helped to reach out to officials in Alaska and Montana where the company plans to mine and process the antimony. Evans stated that the purpose and intent of lobbying was to make legislators aware of what we do. Some didn't know that we existed. BHP Minerals Service is a subsidiary company of the mining giant BHP. It registered last month with Bernhardt to lobby for trade issues relating to minerals. BHP declined comment. Trigg Minerals (which is developing a Tennessee Tungsten Mine) hired Bernhardt’s firm in July for help securing U.S. Government support. Trigg Minerals did not respond when asked for comment. Records show that Ballard's company has signed contracts with at least six important mineral companies including Korea Zinc and US Strategic Metals. Korea Zinc has been lobbying the administration on behalf of The Metals Company, which has agreed that they will help process polymetallic nodules found in the seabed. Trump has been pushing for efforts to Open seabeds to mine minerals Falcon, US Strategic Minerals, and Korea Zinc were not available for immediate comment. TechMet refused to comment. (Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw, Ernest Scheyder and Editing by Veronica Brown & David Gregorio).
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Mourners storm Kenyan airport to receive Odinga's body
On Thursday, thousands of mourners briefly invaded Nairobi's airport, disrupting a funeral ceremony for veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga. Crowds also flooded nearby roads, and tried to break into parliament. Odinga died in India, where he was receiving medical care, on Wednesday, aged 80. He had been a prominent figure in Kenyan politics for decades. Odinga supporters had taken to the streets to pay their respects. President William Ruto, along with other officials, went to the airport in order to receive Odinga's body. As the coffin was removed from the plane cargo, mourners - some on motorcycles – overran the airside and interrupted part of the ceremony. The crowd backed off the plane later, but chaos caused a two-hour halt to airport operations. Some Odinga fans also climbed the gates of the parliament where the government planned to hold a public viewing. His party claimed that the venue had been changed to a Nairobi stadium. Odinga, who is primarily known as an opponent, became prime minister in 2008. He also formed a political alliance with Ruto in the last year. He was loved by his Luo tribe in western Kenya. Many of them believe that he lost the presidency due to electoral fraud. (Reporting and editing by Ammu Kanampilly, Andrew Cawthorne, Vincent Mumo and Edwin Waita)
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Transneft claims that Russian oil companies have not reduced their oil supplies
Transneft's pipeline network is not experiencing a reduction in supplies from Russian oil companies, according to a senior Transneft executive. Deliveries this year will be on par with those of 2024. Maxim Grishanin is the first vice president of the company. He told reporters that the company had enough capacity to handle a possible rise in supply. Russia will increase its output to meet the demands of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. Transneft transports over 80% of the oil produced by the country. Grishanin stated that Transneft had a growing cash deficit due to an increased tax burden. It was forced to put some projects on hold and allocate funds to current assets. The Russian parliament passed a bill last year that would have allowed the country to use an Tax increases Transneft profits will increase from 20% to 40% for 2025-2030, as Moscow looks to raise funds to fund its military campaign in Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia have intensified their attacks on each others' energy facilities, as the peace talks that were supposed to end the conflict in July have been stuck. Last month, Ukrainian attacks disrupted Russian oil imports from Primorsk - a major outlet along the Baltic Sea. (Reporting and editing by Mark Trevelyan; Vladimir Soldatkin)
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Father of pilot who died in Air India crash requests independent investigation by top court
Sources familiar with the case said that the 91-year old father of an Air India pilot who was killed in a crash in June that claimed 260 lives has asked India's Supreme Court for an independent investigation to consider other causes than the pilot. The lawsuit is a significant escalation in protests against the Indian Government's handling the worst aviation accident in a decade that occurred shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, a western city. After criticising the government's investigation, the father of the boy, Pushkar Sabharwal, has now called for an independent investigation to be conducted by a panel headed by a retired Supreme Court Judge. He claimed that two officials of India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau, who visited him, had suggested that his son Sumeet, Sabharwal cut the fuel for the plane's engines after takeoff. The investigation was described as "very clean" by the government, and "very thorough" by investigators. One of the sources that saw the filing said the father had told the court on October 11 that the investigation team seemed to "predominantly concentrate on the deceased pilots" while ignoring or excluding other plausible technical and procedural reasons. The two sources who spoke under condition of anonymity said that the group also requested the investigation by the government be closed, and the case handed over to a panel led by a retired Supreme Court Judge, which includes aviation experts. The Supreme Court website, on Thursday, showed that the father and Federation of Indian Pilots had jointly filed the case against the Government, but it did not give any details. Air India, Boeing, the AAIB and the Civil Aviation Ministry did not respond immediately to comments. The pilots' union and Sabharwal's dad did not reply to email seeking comments. A preliminary AAIB Report showed that the fuel engine switches on the Boeing Dreamliner had switched from run to shutoff almost simultaneously just after takeoff. A source who was briefed in July on the early assessment by U.S. officials of the evidence said that the cockpit recordings of the dialogue between the pilots confirmed the belief that Captain Sabharwal cut off the fuel flow to the engines. About 5,000 people are members of the Federation of Indian Pilots. (Reporting and editing by Aditya K. Kalra, Clarence Fernandez and Abhijith. G.)
State media reports that four oil facility guards were killed in an explosion near Syria's Deir al-Zor.
The state news agency reported that four oil facility guards died in an attack against a bus east of Deir al-Zor.
The attack was not immediately claimed by any group.
A security source said that the military personnel were part of a contingent of soldiers securing the Teim Oilfield. They were returning to their home in Salo, east of Deir al-Zor after completing their shift on the site located west of the province.
This is the most deadly incident since Assad fell in eastern Syria, the province that produces the majority of Syria's wheat and oil. Three months ago ISIS sleeper cell attacks on a Mayadeen police station.
The latest attack took place near SDF controlled areas east of Euphrates where tensions have been rising between government forces, and the SDF in recent days.
The Euphrates River divides the region along the border of Iraq between the areas controlled by Syria and those by the U.S.-backed SDF. They control the oilfields on the east side of the river.
(source: Reuters)