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JPMorgan makes money on the Chinese Yuan rally

JPMorgan analysts announced that they would be closing their long-term offshore Chinese yuan positions after the central bank of the country lowered the cost to buy dollar forwards in an effort to curb the recent yuan rally.

From March 2, the 'People's Bank of China' will reduce from 20% to zero the amount that banks and financial institutions must reserve for risk when they purchase foreign currency via currency forwards.

After the announcement the offshore yuan, which has increased 7.5% in value against the dollar from the start of 2025, fell more than 100 pip and slipped?past $6.85 per dollar.

JPMorgan analysts stated in a research note that they had been holding CNH longs for a while. They then decided to take 'profits on their CNH/SGD longs (offshore dollar versus Singapore yuan) positions.

The new rule (risk reserves) should encourage an increase in dollar purchases from onshore investors through?FX futures, which has been falling significantly since 2022.

They added the "earlier-than-expected move" reinforced the view that the yuan's rise had "probably gone a bit further than what the PBOC is comfortable with".

This has also led to concerns that the bullish momentum of the yuan may be running out of steam in the short term.

Since early November, the offshore yuan is up around 4.2%.

China's currency is available in two different forms: onshore CNY (the restricted mainland Chinese version) and offshore CNH (the freely traded version).

JPMorgan analysts said that despite the shift in strategy, they still had a "bullish bias for the medium-term CNY FX", predicting international investors would continue to buy Chinese stocks and Chinese corporations to continue'selling dollars.

They said that if this scenario played out, it could have a negative impact on their medium-term USD/CNY target. We would therefore be inclined to take outright CNY long positions, if/when the levels are more favorable. Marc Jones is the reporter. Mark Potter (Editing)

(source: Reuters)