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UAE's largest oil company says that the full flow of Hormuz will not be achieved until the first half 2027.

The head of ADNOC, the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates, said that full oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would not be restored 'before the first or the second quarter of 2027', even if Middle East conflict ended now. Top industry executives have a pessimistic outlook, which highlights the long-term economic impact of Iran's war. The International Energy Agency calls the crisis the biggest ever because the strait is almost closed. Iran has de facto taken control of the waterway that is a chokepoint to about a fifth the world's supply of oil. Energy prices have risen, which has increased inflation and raised fears of a recession. Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, it would take four months for energy flows to return to pre-conflict levels. Full flows won't be restored until at least the second quarter of 2027.

JABER CALLS HORMUZ BLOCKADE A 'DANGEROUS PRECEEDENT'

Aramco's chief executive, Amin Nasser of Saudi Arabia, warned that the oil market could not recover until the year 2027, if current conditions continue through mid-June. Reports claim that Iran is consolidating control of the strait through checkpoints and vetting, as well as sometimes by charging fees. After the U.S. and Israeli assault on Iran, which began February 28, Tehran began to attack vessels in the strait as a way to impose a "de facto" blockade.

Iran has since expanded its definition of a waterway to include UAE's Gulf of Oman coast just outside the strait. This has become a lifeline for UAE. The crude pipeline, which ends in the port of Fujairah on this coast, has "kept Emirati crude flowing into markets."

"This is more than an economic issue. This is a very dangerous precedent. "Once you accept the idea that one country can take over the most important waterway in the world, we've lost freedom of navigation," said Jaber.

"If we do not defend this principle now, we will spend next decade defending against the consequences."

Jaber noted that the conflict had highlighted supply chain fragility. He said fuel prices were up by 30%, fertilisers prices had risen by 50%, and airfares have increased a quarter. He called for increased investment to 'enhance global energy resilience.

He said: "Every farm, factory, and family pays the price. The most vulnerable are the ones that end up bearing the greatest burden."

Nearly 80 countries have taken urgent measures to support their economies just 80 days after the start of this conflict.

(source: Reuters)