Latest News

Saudi Red Sea oil exports are halted as Houthi attacks grow

Analysts say that all recent Yanbu loads have been "dark". On July 20, the?Houthis announced a maritime boycott against Saudi Arabia, opening a new front in the Iran War against the United States. Since then, they've claimed attacks against Saudi-linked oil tankers, Yanbu facilities, and most recently the Jazan refinery along the Red Sea Coast. This has led to more vessels operating without publically visible tracking data.

Dark voyages are becoming more common, and they obscure the visibility of Saudi oil exports. This makes it difficult to determine the extent to which Houthi threats could disrupt crude flow.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and traders use data from ship-tracking firms to estimate global oil supply trends and forecast market trends.

The week commencing August 3rd, data analytics firm Vortexa estimated that Yanbu loadings had fallen to 2,38 million barrels a day from 2,71 million in the previous week. Kpler estimated an even sharper fall to 1,78 million bpd, from 4,04?million. AXSMarine estimated a rise from 420,000 to 640,000 barrels a day.

Saudi Aramco has not responded to a request from?comment.

CONDUCTED DARK

Satellite data is used to check movements and fill in any gaps.

Last week, all Yanbu liftings took place in the dark. "We're not currently seeing any loadings that have Automatic Identification System (AIS)," said Vortexa analyst George Morris.

Nhway Khin Soe, a Kpler analyst, said that 70% of the loadings on the west coast of Saudi Arabia in recent weeks have been dark. He added that all Yanbu cargoes since July?23 were loaded by vessels without continuous AIS coverage.

Two years of Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, at the southernmost tip of the Red Sea, had already affected the flow of traffic. Kpler data shows that an average of 32 vessels per day traversed the waterway in the last week. This is down from 50 vessels a single day prior to the Houthi group's latest blockade.

Data from ship-tracking shows that Saudi Arabia is sending more oil through the Red Sea. This can be done via the Suez Canal, or Egypt's SUMED Pipeline, which connects?Ain Sokhna, on the Red Sea coast, to Sidi Kerir, on the Mediterranean Coast.

Morris, Vortexa, said that the average crude and condensate load at 'Sidi Kerir was a record 2,17 million bpd, which is around 50% more than the previous weeks. About 90% of total volumes were Saudi crude. In recent days, the cost of war-risk insurance has increased and tanker companies have also changed their sailing strategies.

Previously, the major tanker operator DHT exited via Bab al-Mandeb to lift oil from the Red Sea.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld, CEO of DHT, said in a recent earnings call that "that has become more challenging." It's fair that most VLCC (supertanker), not just ours have moved north and northwest.

(source: Reuters)