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Ukraine reduces grain export forecast because of Russian attack on seaports
Ukraine's?agriculture ministry told? On Monday, Ukraine's?agriculture minister? cited?Russian strikes? on the southern Odesa hub of the country. Taras Vysotskyi, the first official forecaster of exports since the Russian attack in late July that effectively stopped shipments out of Odesa port, which are crucial to Ukraine and global agriculture market. Before the increase, the ministry had forecasted exports at 43 million tonnes for this season. In recent weeks, Russia has attacked Ukrainian Black Sea port terminals, vessels that enter and leave the ports on a daily basis and their export terminals. The lower grain forecast highlights?the damage?attacks are inflicting? on a nation that ships over 90% of its grain through seaports. Ukraine's exports are dominated by agricultural products. According to the Agriculture Ministry, this disruption could lead to a shortfall in grain storage of up 11 million tons. Vysotskyi, a Ukrainian politician, said earlier this month that the blockade of the ports could cause losses in the agricultural sector to reach $3 billion. APK-Inform analysts cut their forecast for exports by 8.6% to 39.4 millions tons on Monday due to?export disruptions. In a report, the consultancy stated that it has cut its forecast for exports of?wheat, corn and barley. It said that the estimate included 13.5?tons wheat, 24?tons corn, and 1.5 mln tonne barley. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Editing by Daniel Flynn & Emelia Sithole Matarise
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Oil spillage from tanker off Oman under sanctions against Russia spreads across huge area
The government of Oman said that an oil slick covers 390 square kilometres (150 sq miles) of ocean off its coast. This is after a ship?under sanctions? and?carrying Russian petroleum sustained damage. Two maritime security sources confirmed that the crew of?Caroline?Bezengi first reported problems on June 8, off Mukalla in southern Yemen. Initial assessments suggested that an explosion occurred onboard. In its first public disclosure, Oman announced on Monday that it is working to stop the oil spillage in its waters near the Hallaniyat Islands of southern Governorate Dhofar. According to a statement by Oman's?Environment Authority, carried by Omani state media agency, the oil slick covers approximately 390 square kilometres?based upon its latest analysis which included satellite imagery. The slick is said to extend northeast of the islands and towards the mainland. At its closest point, it comes within seven kilometers of the shore. Satellite imagery and shipping experts showed that the spillage from the 274-metre-long (900-foot-long) Caroline Bezengi Tanker was still spreading as of the end of last month. This raised concerns about environmental damage. It is not clear what caused the damage and Oman hasn't offered any explanation. The ship's shipping data revealed that it was loaded with?Russian crude oil before the voyage. The ship last sent a signal to public AIS tracking in June,?off of the coasts of Yemen. Russia's shadow fleet, which is made up of aging and often poorly maintained tankers, circumvents Western sanctions against?Russian oil imports. The European Union and Britain have imposed sanctions on the Caroline Bezengi, claiming that it was involved in transporting fuels from Russia. (Reporting and writing by Nayera Abadallah and Menna alaa El Din; Editing by Barbara Lewis.)
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MSC and BlackRock withdraw request for approval of purchase of stakes in Barcelona port
A regulatory filing revealed that the shipping giant MSC 'and the buyout fund BlackRock retracted their request to the European Union’s?antitrust regulator to approve their -plan to -buy the Barcelona port terminal, owned by CK Hutchison. Last December, the EU Commission, the EU's competition enforcer, launched a full-scale investigation on the grounds that the deal could lead to higher prices and a reduction in the quality of container terminal services. In the deal, Terminal Investment Limited Holding (TiL), a subsidiary of MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company based in Switzerland, and BlackRock would acquire joint control over Hutchison’s terminal at Barcelona Port. It is also the main gateway for deep-sea cargo from and to Barcelona. The terminal is also a major gateway for traffic from and to southern Europe. The EU warned that the merger could have affected rival container shipping firms, as?MSC received preferential treatment. BlackRock, MSC 'and CK 'Hutchison didn't respond to our requests for comment. Reporting by Inti landauro, Editing by David Goodman
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Poland and the Baltics protect infrastructure in case of a Russian false flag attack
Russia's NATO northern neighbours tighten security around dams and power plants, as they grow increasingly concerned that Moscow may stage a "false-flag" attack using Ukrainian drones. Last week, Lithuania claimed that Moscow was considering a staged attack. Poland, Latvia and Estonia?also warned against acts of sabotage in order to test NATO response during a time when the U.S. commitment towards the Western military alliance has been questioned. Last month, Kremlin spokesperson?Dmitry Peskov? said that warnings about Russian clandestine attack are "scare tales" used to justify military action against Russia. Poland and the Baltic States, all of which border Russia, and have found Ukrainian drones already on their territories, do not take any chances. Robertas Kaunas, Lithuanian Minister of Defence, said: "We're not naive. We see the information. We read between the lines. And we do our homework." The prime minister, four officials from the intelligence community and companies in the region and he shared details about intelligence assessments and the measures being taken to protect the infrastructure. Kaunas stated, "We constantly exchange information on the next steps with our intelligence services." The riot police and military take up positions Last month, Lithuania sent the military to support riot police as they secured its liquefied gas import terminal, oil products terminal and a vital power link with Poland. Kaunas said: "We're clearly signaling, that if necessary, we'll defend ourselves". In an interview, Andris Kulbergs, the Prime Minister of Latvia, said that the country has enhanced security around critical infrastructure. This includes the Daugava River dam near Riga, and the Incukalns gas storage facility underground. He said that a hybrid threat was more likely to occur than before. In May, Russia accused the Baltic States of planning to allow Ukrainian drones to attack Russia from their territories and promised to retaliate. This prompted denials, protests and concerns that Moscow might stage an attack in order to justify its response. An official from the Baltic intelligence agency said that?assessments indicate that Russian military and domestic spy agencies are planning to launch a false-flag operation on infrastructure in Russia, the Baltics, and Poland using drones made by Ukraine, which will be executed within days after approval is given by leaders, including President Vladimir Putin. Officials said that the main concern in the assessments wasn't so much the immediate impact, but the 'political turmoil' it would cause at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, as Europeans and Americans debated how and whether to respond. A second source, a regional official, was less conclusive. He said that despite a series of warnings by "allied intelligence" regarding Russian activity, the Baltic States had been "overwhelmed" and attacks could occur "between now and never". Moscow claims that the West accuses them of "Russophobia" and committing malign actions without any evidence. NATO and the Russian Embassy in Vilnius didn't immediately respond to comments. A person familiar with the company's operations revealed that Orlen, Poland's top oil and gas firm, is looking at alternative routes to import gas in the event the current ones are compromised. Orlen imports 80 percent of its gas via the Swinoujscie terminal for liquefied natural gas on the Baltic Sea, and a subsea pipeline that connects to Norway. Another person with direct knowledge of the situation said that Gaz-System is operating there under "increased surveillance". Orlen refused to comment on any specific preventive measures. Gaz-System's spokesperson stated that the company is closely monitoring geopolitical developments and will respond appropriately. Forged documents prompt concern over Polish nuclear?Plan Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe (Polish Electricity Jadrowe), the state-owned developer behind Poland's first nucleo power plant, has said that forged documents aimed to confuse stakeholders have appeared. They can be traced somewhere "east of Poland". Marcin Skolimowski, the company's spokesman, said that they are 'investigating and monitoring for sabotage and other threats on the construction site. In July, Poland's power grid operators and a military arm increased security around a power connection with Ukraine. This link helps stabilize the grid of this war-torn country that has been repeatedly attacked by Russia. Maciej Wawapinski, spokesperson for the grid operator, said: "This is an area that requires heightened vigilance. We are using all our resources." The military is expected to help secure the critical infrastructure of other parts of the eastern part. Unknown drones are also appearing in Europe. In Germany, last week, authorities found a drone with explosives on the Leipzig/Halle Airport. Alexander Dobrindt, the German interior minister, called it a hybrid assault but refused to assign blame. Russia has denied suggestions from German politicians and media that they are responsible. Wojciech Koonczuk is the director of Poland's state-funded "OSW Centre for Eastern Studies" and he told us that a series of Russian allegations that the Baltics were "working for Ukraine" could be setting the stage for Russian attacks in the country. He stated that the Russian forces were enmeshed in Ukraine, and Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy facilities and other facilities had hurt its economy. The goal was to gain the upper hand. Kononczuk stated that the message to Europe would be that it would spread destabilisation, if it did not accept Moscow's requests. This is a risky decision based on a calculation that there will be a lack in will to react.
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Sources say that Safe Harbor, owned by Blackstone, is close to a $1.5 billion deal with MarineMax.
People familiar with the matter say that Blackstone Infrastructure’s Safe 'Harbor 'Marinas is close to a $1.5 Billion deal for MarineMax. The deal will end a long-running battle for the recreational yacht retailer. It caters to wealthy clients through 65 marinas, 70 dealerships and storage facilities, mainly in the United States. Last month, it was reported that activist investor Donerail as well as private equity firm Centerbridge were also bidders. Safe Harbor will pay around $53 in cash per share to purchase MarineMax, according to sources. This is a substantial premium over the closing price on Friday of $35.68. Calculations show that this would value MarineMax's equity to be $1.17 billion. MarineMax had a long-term debt totaling $335?millions at the end of June, according to data provider LSEG. Sources who spoke anonymously to discuss their private discussions said that a deal could be announced this week, if there are no last-minute complications. MarineMax didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Blackstone declined comment. Safe Harbor would have its biggest deal since it was acquired by Blackstone's Infrastructure arm for $5.7 billion in April last year. MarineMax, a Florida-based company, will add Oldsmar to Safe Harbor’s existing network of marinas, which include operations in the U.S.A., Caribbean, and Mediterranean. Some sources claim that Safe Harbor will be the owner and operator of all MarineMax's segments. MarineMax's bidding war highlights the increasing investment appeal of the marina business, as lower rates of interest have allowed high-end consumers to spend on luxury items such as yachts while other economic groups are being forced to tighten up their belts. Donerail increased pressure on 'MarineMax' in October, publicly urging it to sell or replace CEO Brett McGill. MarineMax has made changes to address investor concerns. This includes replacing the board of directors. However, MarineMax began soliciting formal buyer interest in April. Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss in New York and David French; editing by Echo Wang, Kevin Buckland
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According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the shortfall in Ukraine's grain-storage capacity could be as high as 11 million tonnes.
The agriculture ministry warned on Monday that a disruption of grain exports through Black Sea ports could lead to a shortage of grain storage capacity in Ukraine. Ukraine has harvested more than 17 millions metric tons from 34% of its sown land. The ministry stated that a storage shortage of 11 million tons could occur and it had asked U.S. Partners for assistance in acquiring equipment for temporary on farm?grain storage. APK-Inform analysts estimate that Ukraine's harvest in 2026 could reach 60 million tons. Exports are projected at 39 million tonnes, and carryover stock reaches a record 14.3 million tones. The most difficult situation is likely to occur in the middle of autumn, between September and October. This is when elevators will be filled with unexported wheat and barley, and farmers will begin harvesting large quantities of corn. Ukraine faced a shortage of grain storage and elevators at the beginning of the conflict with Russia, in '2022. According to Mykola Solskyi, the agriculture minister of Ukraine at the time, this shortfall would amount to 15 million tons by 2022. Later, the deficit was partly reduced by?the use?of grain storage bags provided?by Ukraine’s allies. Ukraine doesn't disclose the capacity of its grain storage, which has been damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks. Farmers and traders are also cautious about storing grain near military installations or front lines. (Reporting and editing by Kirsty Donovan, Barbara Lewis and Pavel Polityuk)
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The Russian Central Bank advises banks to allow firms that have been hit by warehouse attacks to restructure loans
According to a Monday letter published by the 'Russian Central Bank,' creditors are advised to assist businesses that have been affected by Ukrainian drone attacks on warehousing and logistics centres. Ukraine has?attacked at least 20 warehouses owned by Russian ecommerce retailer Wildberries since July 18. In a letter, the regulator stated that "small and medium-sized businesses who have suffered due to terrorist attacks on warehouses, manufacturing plants, retail, offices, and other premises can apply for restructured loans." Sberbank, VTB and Wildberries Bank, which is owned by the retailer, have all announced that they are ready to help?businesses. Sergei Melamed, senior Sberbank executive said that the bank had received 2,000 applications from entrepreneurs for loan restructuring. (Reporting and writing by Elena Fabrichnaya, Editing by Andrew Osborn).
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Etna ash cloud stops arrivals at Catania Airport in Sicily
SAC, the operator of Catania airport in eastern Sicily, said that flights arriving there were suspended until 1500 GMT Monday after volcanic ash drifted from Mount Etna's newest eruption into the airspace surrounding the airport. Etna is the most active volcano in the world and it frequently causes disruptions to air traffic at Catania airport, Italy's 5th busiest airport by passenger traffic. SAC issued a statement Monday saying that "as the situation significantly affects operations, passengers should check with their airline the status of their flight before going to the airport". It added that the situation was constantly being monitored and future updates would depend on "the evolution of volcanic activities and weather conditions". Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology said that the latest eruptive 'phase' on Europe's tallest volcano is continuing at'vents' of 2,750m (9,022ft) and 2360m, which are feeding several 'lava flows' and creating extensive lava 'fields. INGV’s Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation remained 'at the highest 'alert level (red), indicating that aircraft are still at risk from ash emission. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; reporting by Giselda Vasgnoni)
Maguire: Germany's industrial growth could be re-ignited by the power of Germany.
Germany's electrical output will grow by more than 10 percent in 2026. This could be a lifeline for the industrial sector, which has been near stagnation over the past few years.
According to the energy think tank Ember, total utility-supplied electric output has increased by more than 10 years. It now stands at 209 terawatts hours (TWh).
This surge in power production?has coincided?with tentative signs of stabilisation?in parts of the manufacturing sector of the country,?including?some energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals.
The total output and activity levels of Germany's vital industrial base are still well below their previous peaks. And the total electricity produced by utilities is around 19% lower than its all-time high set in 2017.
Germany's clean energy supplies are nearing multi-year highs, and the annual growth of total electricity is expected to be the highest in many years.
POWERING A TUNNAROUND
This shift is important because the availability of energy and its affordability has been a major constraint for German industry ever since the energy crisis in 2022, which was triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In response, several major European energy importers have cut their purchases of Russian gas and oil. This has led to a sharp tightening on local energy markets.
Fuel and power prices surged, causing German businesses to lose money, forcing them to cut back on production and trigger a contraction in energy-intensive industries that are the basis of Germany's manufacturing model.
The reverse dynamic is now beginning to emerge.
Wind and solar power are increasing, and they inject large amounts of electricity at low cost into the grid. This helps to stabilize supply and cap wholesale prices.
The average wholesale spot power price in Germany has been around 96.4 Euros per Megawatt Hour so far in 2026. This is a relatively flat rate compared to a year ago and the lowest in the last two years.
Even a modest reduction in electricity costs can have a disproportionate impact on industrial users' profitability and production decisions.
Early signs indicate that there may be some ease in the air. The producers of energy-intensive chemicals and goods are among those who have been hit the hardest in recent years. They show tentative signs of stabilisation along with the increase in power supply.
A STRUCTURAL?SHIFT in Supply
This time, the key difference is the source of expansion.
Germany does not depend on fossil fuels, nor imports for supply. Instead, it relies on renewable energy produced domestically. The system is dominated by wind, but solar energy has been gaining ground, and it's setting records.
This is important for two reasons. The first is that renewable energy has near-zero marginal cost, so increases in production tend to lower overall electricity prices.
Second, electricity generated domestically reduces the exposure to volatile fuel markets globally, improving supply security, predictability, and reliability for industrial users.
These dynamics together create an operating environment that is more favorable for manufacturers today than it was before the energy crises.
LIMITATIONS ON THE REBOUND
This does not guarantee a complete industrial revival.
German manufacturing continues to struggle with a weak global demand, increased competition from abroad and structural changes, especially in sectors like autos and chemicals.
The recovery will likely be slow.
The power system itself is not without its own constraints. Grid bottlenecks and intermittent renewable energy, as well as the need for increased storage capacity, could all be limiting factors in how quickly a rise in generation can translate into a consistent drop in prices.
While electricity production is on the rise, total demand still hasn't recovered, reflecting the cautious attitude of industrial users.
The Energy-Industrial Feedback Loop
The direction is still becoming more clear. The industrial sector in Germany does not require a return of ultra-cheap electricity to stabilize -- it requires predictability, scale, and gradual cost relief.
Expansion of electricity supply has begun to achieve this.
The availability of more power can?support higher industrial production, which, in turn, increases electricity demand and encourages further investment in generator capacity.
This feedback loop can help to rebuild the competitiveness and scale of Germany's industrial base.
A NEW POWER CHAPTER
Germany's economy has long been linked to its factories.
After the energy shock, however, this link may have been broken and the road to recovery could be in the opposite direction.
The current surge in supply of electricity will not only light up homes and charge cars, but it will also reset the economics for manufacturing in one of the leading manufacturing hubs in the world.
The next chapter in Germany's industrial history may not start on the factory floor but on the grid.
The opinions expressed are those of the columnist, author. This column is a great read! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)