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Maguire: The power system in India has just reached a tipping point of historic proportions.

India's electricity system has reached a milestone that tells an entirely different story than the usual one conveyed through data on electricity generation.

India is a great market for coal and has been for many years. Coal is still responsible for approximately 70% of the electricity generated and remains a key component in the grid.

A look at the installed capacity mix of the country suggests that something is happening beneath the surface.

According to the most recent capacity data from Ember & Global Energy Monitor (GEM), renewable energy sources account for 331.7 GW of installed capacity, as opposed to 302.0 GW fossil fuels.

This capacity split gives India's utility mix a?majority?share?of clean power for the first time.

CLEAN SPLIT

This milestone is not important because India suddenly became a clean energy system. This has not happened. It reveals instead a growing tension in India between what it is building and burning.

It is important to make this distinction because the generation statistics are a description of today's electric system while the capacity numbers provide a glimpse into tomorrow's.

Solar panels and windmills only produce when the weather permits.

The capacity mix is a good indicator of where the capital is going, what infrastructures are being built, and ultimately what type power system India wants to build.

India's transformation appears much more advanced when viewed through this lens than many observers believe.

SOLAR SPOTLIGHT

Solar power is the 'clearest evidence.

In 2010, India only had 0.07 GW solar power. According to Ember, it now has 211 GW. Solar represents 33% of the total utility-scale installed capacity. This makes it the most clean energy source in the United States.

It is hard to overstate the extent of this expansion.

India's solar power fleet is now almost the same size as its coal-fired fleet, which totals 254.4 GW.

The solar capacity alone is larger than India's entire power system, which was 211.4 GW in 2011, the year when it was installed.

The pace at which recent additions have been made is even more impressive.

India will add 75.5 GW solar capacity between 2025 and mid-2026 compared to just 3.8 GW coal capacity. Over the same period, clean capacity increased by 80 GW while fossil?capacity grew only by 5.4 GW.

This does not mean that India has stopped producing coal. The coal capacity is still increasing and policymakers are committed to expanding dispatchable energy supplies to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity.

The challenge for the country is not to replace an existing system of electricity but rather, to build enough generation capacity to support a rapidly growing economy.

GROWTH MARKET

India's transformation is different from that of many other developed markets.

In Europe, the energy transition focuses largely on substituting clean energy to fossil fuels. India's energy transition occurs as the country's overall electricity demand continues its upward trend.

In this way, coal's absolute value can grow even though it is losing ground relative to other fuels.

These numbers show this shift very clearly.

In 2014, coal accounted for 59% of the installed capacity. By 2026 its share would have fallen to 40%. The total amount of fossil fuels has declined from almost three quarters in 2000 to under half today.

The growth of renewables is much faster than coal.

This distinction is important because power systems can change slowly and then suddenly.

In the early 2010s, renewables eroded coal's dominance while not fundamentally changing the structure of the grid. But a number of milestones suggest that the balance may be shifting.

Solar power was the first to surpass all other sources of clean energy. Hydro was the mainstay of India's nonfossil power fleet. Solar capacity is now roughly four times greater than hydro and wind capacity.

Second, the majority of clean-capacity vehicles is emerging. The crossing of the 50% threshold is often symbolic but also attracts policymakers, corporate planners and investors.

When a category of technology becomes dominant, subsequent investment decisions reinforce this dominance.

Just a few steps ahead is the third milestone.

Solar capacity now equals around 80% of coal. Solar could overtake coal in India as the largest source of installed power within 10 years if growth rates continue.

This would be a significant psychological shift even if coal was the biggest generator of electricity.

This is the next step in India's transformation.

Next Steps

It is no longer a question of whether India can build large-scale renewable energy capacity. This capability has been demonstrated. Now the challenge is to convert capacity growth into generational growth.

This means investing in grid infrastructure, transmission systems, storage systems, and flexible energy resources that can balance large amounts of solar output.

The success of the project will not be determined by how many solar panels you install, but rather by how much coal they eventually replace.

For some time to come, Generation Data will continue to portray India as a coal-based story.

But the data on capacity tells a very different story.

These figures show that the future power system of a country is developing much faster than what headlines suggest.

India may still burn coal. The power sector's centre of gravity has begun to shift, judging from what India is building.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)