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Where are the barrels of oil? IEA gap deepens confusion over looming glut: Bousso
The International Energy Agency (IEA) continues to predict a significant oil supply glut, but the uncertainty surrounding the location of nearly 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day is putting this forecast into question. Since months, the oil market has been unable to find a direction. Prices have remained in a tight range as traders tried to understand starkly divergent projections of supply and demand from IEA and OPEC. The IEA has predicted a severe glut of oil this year and in the next due to increased global production. The Paris-based agency's latest report, released on Tuesday provided an even more pessimistic outlook. It forecast a surplus in 2025 of 2,35 million barrels a day and 4 million bpd, or nearly 4%, of global demand, next year. OPEC on the other side expects that global oil supply will closely follow demand until 2026. This difference is remarkable, as it has never been seen before in the history of the largest commodity market in the world. Missing Barrels On Tuesday, the murky picture of crude oil became even more muddy when the IEA reported that it had been unable to account 1,47 million bpd in its global balances. This is the equivalent of 1.4% annual demand. The IEA's "unaccounted balance" for July was 850,000 bpd or 370,000 bpd overall for the second-quarter. This 1,47 million bpd number is a huge blind spot that has significant implications for global supply and demand. According to the IEA, supply exceeded demand by 2,04 million bpd during August. This means that, theoretically, oversupply can grow to 3.5 millions bpd, or even shrink to 500,000 bpd. This is a big difference which could have an impact on crude oil prices. The IEA calculates the global oil balances based on official government data, as well as private company and analyst figures about production, consumption and exports. Due to the size of the oil market, it is not uncommon for forecasters' calculations to be "holes". This can be due to the delays in reporting by government agencies and the absence of certain data sets. In fact, the IEA updates its historical data regularly. In its May monthly report, the agency revised upwards significant amounts of recent oil demand. This included increasing 2024 oil usage by 350,000 barrels per day, turning a reported surplus into a deficiency. The sheer magnitude of missing barrels reported by the IEA in its August report should cause traders and investors to pause. This is especially true because it comes at a moment when the market has already been trying to make sense out of forecasters' wildly different projections. Barrels that disappear The IEA stated that the discrepancy in August "may be due to the delay of reporting data or the lack of data for non OECD countries." It will take some time to fully account for the missing barrels. It is reasonable to believe that the missing barrels are due in part to two factors which have been confusing the crude market for the past year: the trading and stockpiling of oil that has been heavily sanctioned. The first question is how much oil sanctioned is being traded. According to Kpler, the volume of crude oil transported by sea last week reached 1.25 billion barrels. This is the highest level since the Covid-19 Pandemic began. Oil held at sea, or "oil in water", has never been greater. This build-up on the seas could be a precursor for a dramatic increase in storage overland - and a significant global oversupply. The picture is further complicated by the fact over a quarter (25%) of the oil in the water comes from countries that are under western sanctions, namely Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The majority of oil produced by these countries is transported in so-called "shadow" fleet tankers, which evade western sanctions and often hide their location by turning off satellite transponders. The IEA may have missed some barrels because it is difficult to track the movements of oil by sea. CRUDE HARDING There is also the issue of China's huge oil storage volumes. According to the IEA's forecast, global observed inventories – oil in storage and on vessels – grew by 225,000,000 barrels from January to August, reaching the highest level for four years. China, as the world's biggest oil importer, is clearly responsible for a large portion of the increase in inventories. Beijing, however, does not publicly disclose the size of its oil storage capacities or changes to inventories. Because traders lack official data, they rely on secondary information to estimate the size of China's rapidly growing storage network and the rate at which it is being filled. According to the IEA, Chinese crude stockpiles rose by 110,000,000 barrels between April 2025 and August 2025. This estimate is based on data provided by satellite analytics firm Kayrros. It is possible, given the lack firm data, that China's crude stock has increased by much more, and this could account for another part the IEA missing barrels. The IEA's mysterious missing barrels may indicate that the task of calculating production, consumption and exports in the vast global oil market will become even more difficult as geopolitics continue to obscure large portions of the market. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. 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Maguire: Seven potentially magnificent US clean-energy stocks
After years of beatings, some U.S. listed clean energy stocks have been on a tear. They are outperforming the majority of established energy giants in spite U.S. president Donald Trump's policy shift away from clean energies since taking office. The AI boom is driving many of the gains, and the need for more electricity to power the data centers has boosted the stock prices of companies that are involved in boosting energy supply. Other firms are also benefiting from the worsening tensions in trade between the United States of America and China. These include companies that produce critical materials and components for the energy technology and defense industries. It's difficult to determine which stocks will be long-term winners. Some companies are actually making profits, but others are soaring on the hopes of product or process innovations that could be decades away. Seven stocks have shown impressive gains in 2025 and could become mainstream market darlings. NUCLEAR PROMISE Two firms with ties to the U.S. Nuclear Power Sector stand out: Centrus Energy Corp. and Oklo Inc. The stock price of Centrus Energy has risen by more than 550% in 2025. This is largely due to the Trump administration's encouragement of rapid development of nuclear power plants. Centrus is the first U.S.-based company to be licensed for production of High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium, which is an essential fuel for the new generation of nuclear reactors. Oklo shares have risen more than 700% in the past year. The company is also benefiting from the positive outlook for the small reactors it markets to data centers, as a reliable and clean source of power. While Centrus and Oklo may be riding high at the moment on the optimism surrounding nuclear power in America, they both face the challenge of converting potential sales into bankable revenue. Businesses that require more power quickly are still frustrated by the long development times of new nuclear reactors. Deployment delays could also work against nuclear developers. The order books of Centrus' and Oklo’s reactors may shrink quickly if utilities and developers of data centers find faster ways to meet their power requirements. RARE RESOURCES The stock prices of U.S. Antimony Corp. and American Resources Corp., both based in the United States, have reached multi-year highs by 2025. UAMY produces antimony, which is used extensively in batteries. AREC refines rare earths into high-purity materials that are used in magnets and heat-resistant applications. UAMY shares have risen around 690% in the past year, while AREC shares have risen around 390%. Both companies are receiving support from the U.S. Government as suppliers of vital resources and will therefore benefit from growing customer demand for non-Chinese vendors. Due to China's dominance of the production and supply chain for these materials, UAMY and AREC could struggle to expand their businesses in markets outside the U.S. where their Chinese competitors compete directly. Charge Ahead Some of the other notable clean energy stocks in the United States this year are Bloom Energy (which makes fuel cells for direct electricity generation at business sites) and Solid Power Inc., which manufactures batteries and energy storage systems for electric vehicles. Bloom Energy shares have risen over 400% in the past year, thanks to a contract with Brookfield Asset Management that made it their preferred power supplier at their AI factories. Solid Power shares have risen around 275% and with the positive outlook for grid-scale battery sales, it appears primed for further growth in the near to mid term. Both firms are facing stiff competition from competitors offering similar capabilities. They will also be affected by any possible slowdown in construction of AI data centers and energy storage systems. SolarEdge Technologies has also seen a notable increase in stock prices in 2025. The company makes inverters which optimize power flow through solar panels. SolarEdge's shares have risen by about 200% in the past year. SolarEdge, based in Israel, is not an American company. It has expanded rapidly its U.S. production base, and will therefore benefit from the strong demand for local-made components when the U.S. grid continues to add solar systems. The seven stocks above, although they all have distinct roles in the U.S. Clean Energy space, all have benefited so far from the growing tide of investor attention in this sector in 2025. Each firm has its own competitive advantages, which can help them to appeal to a wider range of investors. They could also compete for portfolio shares with tech giants like chipmakers and other companies in the future. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this article? Check it out Open Interest The new global financial commentary source (ROI) is your go-to for all the latest news and information. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on You can find us on LinkedIn.
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TNB CEO: Natural gas will overtake coal by 2032 as Malaysia's primary source of energy
Tenaga Nasional Bhd's (TNB) chief executive said that Malaysia would generate more electricity using natural gas by 2032 than it will from coal. Megat Jalaluddin, CEO of TNB, said that the demand for electricity from data centres is expected to stabilize, and the total amount of electricity used in Malaysia will likely be consistent with the projected growth rate of Malaysia's economy of 4%-4.5 percent in 2026. The investment in data centres has stabilized. Jalaluddin stated that the data centre investment is currently growing steadily. Malaysia has been compelled to increase its coal-fired energy output in recent months and import more fuel. According to TNB's presentation, Malaysia expects to import up to 35 million tons of coal per year until 2028. Data from the energy think tank Ember revealed that coal's share of Malaysia's electricity generation increased steadily, from 6% to 43% by 2024, from 6% to 2000. Gas' share, however, fell to 37% by 2024, from 80% to the start of the century. According to a TNB presentation on the subject, coal imports will decline by 2029. This will force Malaysia, which is the fifth largest exporter of LNG, to use more gas to generate electricity and to start importing super-cooled fuels as local gas reserves decrease. Jalaluddin stated that the Southeast Asian nation will add 50% more gas fired power capacity by 2030 in order to meet data centres' increasing consumption. This will allow gas to overtake coal as Malaysia’s main fuel by 2032. Separately Jalaluddin said that he expected Vietnam to begin exporting electricity to Singapore via Malaysia by the end of the decade. "This (Vietnam-Malaysia-Singapore) is basically still a greenfield project, so it will take us a while but we are going to see this happening in this decade," he said, adding that 1 GW to 2 GW of power would be exported through undersea cables. (Reporting and editing by Sudarshan Varadhan and Ashley Tang)
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Australia's Treasury Wine Chair grilled by shareholders, but comfortably reelected
Treasury Wine Estates shareholders grilled chairman John Mullen about the Australian winemaker’s poor performance, his stock decline as well as heavy workload. But he was reelected with a large margin at their annual general meeting held on Thursday. Treasury, one of the top five winemakers in the world by volume, pulled its earnings guidance for 2026, and halted plans for a stock buyback. The company cited weak sales of Penfolds' flagship wines in China, and distribution problems in the U.S. Since the beginning of the year, the stock price has fallen by more than 40%. Institutional Shareholder Services, Australian Shareholders' Association and other proxy advisory firms had advised investors to vote against Mullen's election. They noted that he served as chairman of Qantas, logistics firm Brambles, and on private boards. Can John name anyone else in recent times who has chaired three ASX 100 Companies at the same time? One shareholder asked this question at the meeting. Mullen reacted to the criticism by saying that it was untimely given the leadership vacuum in the company. He added that he had a "complete" commitment to the firm and was dedicating "adequate time" for the organization. He said Treasury was facing a very difficult time with problems in its main markets. It also has no chief executive. Sam Fischer, the new CEO of Treasury, will start on October 27. Former CEO Tim Ford left on September 30, and Tim Ford left in August. He said: "At a moment when the company is experiencing all that it is, they would think that it was in shareholders' interests not to have chairs... That makes me scratch my heads." The majority of shareholders appeared to be in agreement with him, and he won re-election with only 14.5% against. (Reporting and editing by Edwina G. Gibbs in Sydney)
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Trump withholds $40,6 million from California due to truck driver English rules
The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that it would withhold $40.6 million in federal transportation funds from California for failure to comply with rules governing truck driver English proficiency. In August, the U.S. Transportation Department warned California and Washington states that they might lose their funding if they don't adopt English proficiency standards for commercial truckers. Sean Duffy, U.S. Secretary of Transportation, said that California is the only state to refuse to make sure big rig drivers are able read road signs and can communicate with police. In response to the Transportation Department's request, a spokesperson for California Governor Gavin Newsom stated that the state's laws, regulations and standards were identical or had the same effects as federal safety requirements including English language proficiency. The spokesperson stated that California enforces its requirements through the commercial driver's licensing procedures. They also noted that the fatal accident rate for California license holders was nearly 40% less than the national average. The funds withheld were for roadside inspections and traffic enforcement, audits of trucking firms, public education campaigns, and safety audits. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump has taken several steps to address concerns regarding foreign truckers who don't speak English. In August, Secretary Marco Rubio announced that the United States would immediately suspend the issuance all worker visas to commercial truck drivers. After a fatal accident in Florida and an audit by the government, the Transportation Department released emergency rules last month to restrict commercial drivers licenses for non-U.S. Citizens. In April, Trump issued an executive order that directed enforcement of a rule that required commercial drivers to meet English proficiency requirements in the U.S. The English proficiency standard for truckers is already a long-standing U.S. Law. However, the order reverses 2016 guidance that inspectors shouldn't remove commercial drivers from service if the only infraction was a lack of English. In 2023, FMCSA reported that approximately 16% of U.S. drivers are born outside of the United States. Duffy announced last month that he would launch a separate enforcement against California and require it to stop issuing certain commercial driver's licenses to citizens of other countries. California has 30 calendar days to comply, or the Trump Administration will begin withholding federal highway funds. The first year the Trump administration withholds nearly $160 million and then doubles it. (Reporting and editing by Nia Freed and Jamie Freed; Reporting by David Shepardson)
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J.B. Hunt reports a 12% increase in its quarterly profit due to cost savings
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, a U.S. trucking company, reported on Wednesday a 12% increase in its third-quarter profits. This was due to ongoing cost-cutting initiatives taken in response a downturn in freight in the industry. After-market trading saw a 11% increase in the shares of the company. Since 2022, the trucking industry is in decline, due to excess capacity, declining freight rates and a modest increase in shipment volume. Experts predict that the recession will continue, and that tariffs imposed on U.S. President Donald Trump by Trump's administration will add pressure to the situation. This could delay recovery. The Arkansas-based firm reported net earnings for the third quarter of $170.9 million, or 1.76 cents per share. This is up from $1.49 cents per share a year earlier. According to LSEG, it reported revenues of $3.05billion, which is slightly less than the $3.07billion in the previous quarter but higher than analysts' estimates of $3.03billion. The company reported that the revenue performance was driven by the 1% and the 4% decreases in gross revenue per truckload in the intermodal segment and the truckload segment, respectively. J.B. Hunt reported a 8% drop in load volume in its Integrated Capacity Solutions and Dedicated Contract Services segments, as well as a 1% decrease in its Final Mile Services. Reporting by Abhinav Paramar and Aatreyee dasgupta from Bengaluru, editing by Shailesh Kumar
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Brazil Postal Service Correios wants a $3.7 billion Treasury-backed Loan from banks
The Brazilian state-run Correios postal service is in discussions with a group of banks to obtain a loan worth about 20 billion reals ($3.67 billion), according to its chief executive. This comes as the company looks to improve short-term liquidity. CEO Emmanoel Rondon who assumed the role at the end of September said that the loan was part of a restructuring program which also included a voluntary dismissal plan, the renegotiation with suppliers, and actions to diversify the company's revenue. Why it's important Rondon said at a press briefing that the talks were about a guarantee loan from the Brazilian Treasury. KEY QUOTES "The logistics industry, where Correios is the leading player in Brazil and operates, has undergone a large transformation," Rondon said. He cited a more competitive environment because of the growth of the ecommerce segment, particularly since the COVID-19 epidemic. He added, "Our company didn't adapt quickly to the new reality. This lack of adaptation led to us struggling in terms of results and cash generation, as well as our operation." CONTEXT In the second quarter of 2018, the company reported a net loss amounting to 2.64 billion reais (US$483.4 million), nearly five times higher than its loss in the previous year. This was due to lower revenue, as well as increased administrative and financial costs. ($1 = $5.4612 reais). (Reporting and editing by Matthew Lewis. Additional reporting by Marcela ayres, Brasilia.
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United Airlines expects strong profits in Q4 driven by premium travel demand
United Airlines forecast on Wednesday a profit higher than expected in the fourth quarter, thanks to a robust demand for premium travel as well as improved pricing power. Chicago-based airline American Airlines expects a profit adjusted in the range between $3.00 and $3.50 a share for the quarter ending December. According to LSEG, the midpoint of forecast is $3.25 a share. This compares with an average analyst estimate of $2.86. United's adjusted third-quarter profit was $2.78 per share, exceeding analysts' expectations of just $2.63. The earnings report is released just a week following the rival Delta Air Lines' forecast of record earnings for the December quarter. Since the pandemic, United and Delta consistently outperformed other airlines by focusing on revenue streams with high margins that take advantage of the financial strength and loyalty of corporate and international travelers, as well as premium and corporate passengers. The earnings of U.S. carriers are now more divided. While Delta and United generate most of the profits for the industry, other budget carriers and domestic carriers are struggling with lower demand and increased pricing pressure. United's revenue for the third quarter was $15.2 billion, a 2.6% increase from a year earlier. Premium revenue grew by 6% and loyalty revenue by 9%. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese; Rajesh Kumar Singh)
South Korean mills purchase 50,000 T of wheat from the United States
European traders reported that a group of South Korean mills purchased an estimated 50,000 tons of milling grain to be sourced in the United States at an international auction on Wednesday.
All wheat was purchased FOB for a shipment between April 15th and April 20th.
They said that they believed the seller to be Bunge Trading House.
Traders said that the purchase included soft white wheat with a protein content between 9.5% and 11%, bought at a low of $230 per ton FOB. Soft white wheat with 9% was also purchased in the lower $230s per ton FOB.
The traders also said that hard red winter grain with 11.5% protein was bought at a price of mid-$250s per ton and dark northern spring flour with 14% protein costing high $270s per ton.
The reports reflect the opinions of traders, and additional estimates may be made later. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Matarise, Emelia Sithole Matarise).
(source: Reuters)