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Aluminium prices in the US reach record levels due to tariffs and low stock
Aluminum?consumers are paying record prices in the United States, far above what import levies and transportation costs would justify, due to tight supplies worldwide and the 'impact' of tariffs on low U.S. stocks. Aluminium is needed by industries like automotive, aerospace and packaging. Aluminum prices can have a knock-on effect on the economy, as they increase manufacturing costs, squeeze margins, and eventually drive inflation. In June, President Donald Trump increased tariffs on U.S. aluminum imports by 50% to encourage local production. Aluminium costs have risen since then for consumers in the U.S. Consumers have seen a 40% increase to $5,200 per metric ton. Aluminium traders are also monitoring other supply shortages. Prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen by over?20% in the last year, the highest level since April 2022. This was a few months after Russia invaded Ukraine. Consumers started to avoid?Russian aluminum. US ALUMINIUM STOCK DROP Buyers of aluminium on the physical market in the U.S. typically pay a premium to cover?costs like freight, handling and insurance. The tax component of premium increases as the LME price goes up, because the tariff is calculated in percentage. The duty on aluminium shipments into the United States will be $1.550 at $3,100 per ton. This is up from $1.300 in June. The Midwest aluminium premium hit a record-high of 96 cents per lb, or $2,116 per ton this week, an increase of 65% from?June. The premium is much higher than the costs justify. The market expects the LME to continue trending higher, said Jorge Vazquez at Harbor Aluminum. He added that the premium should be around 85 cents per lb. Last year, exporters of aluminium from the United States diverted it to Europe because the premium was not enough to reflect the tariff. Local stocks therefore shrank. Vazquez, Gregory Wittbecker and Wittsend Commodity Advisors estimate that U.S. aluminum stocks have fallen below 300,000 tonnes from 750,000 at the start of 2025. "Canadian suppliers halted discretionary shipments because they were losing cash, leading to a decline in U.S. inventory," said?Wittbecker. "The U.S. shortage of aluminium is being priced but I doubt how high the premium will go." Trade Data Monitor reports that the United States will import nearly four million tonnes of aluminum in 2024, with Canada accounting 70% of those shipments. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Pratima Deai)
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Frontier Airlines parent company appoints new CEO
James G. Dempsey was appointed Chief Executive Officer of the 'Frontier Group', parent company to 'Frontier Airlines, on Thursday. The company announced last month that longtime CEO Barry Biffle was leaving and appointed an insider,?Dempsey, as interim leader. Frontier said that it now expects its adjusted earnings per share to be at the upper?end of their previous?forecast, which was between 4 cents and $20 cents. This is due to the strong revenue performance throughout the quarter while also overcoming the effects of the shutdown. Before the bell, shares of the Denver-based company rose 2.5%. Dempsey - who has been Frontier's president for the last 10 years - was responsible for its commercial operations, customer service, operations research and planning. He ?joined Frontier as CFO in 2014, prior to ?which he held senior management roles at Ryanair Holdings and various management roles at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
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Sources say that a drone struck a Russian-bound tanker in the Black Sea.
According to an alert from Lloyd's List Intelligence on Thursday and another maritime security source, a Russia-bound oil ship suffered a drone strike in the Black Sea. This prompted them to ask for Turkish coastguard help and divert their course. Lloyd's List Intelligence, a maritime data specialist, said that the Elbus, a Palau-flagged vessel, "experienced a unmanned marine vehicle and drone attack on Wednesday targeting its engine room." No injuries or pollution were reported by the 25 crew members. A security source based their assessment on a drone attack. The incident was not clear. Late November, insurance rates for shipping rose after Ukrainian?drones? hit two Russia bound tankers?in the Black Sea. The incidents prompted Moscow and Ankara, respectively, to issue threats of retaliation, while Ankara urged calm. In early December, a vessel flying the Russian flag claimed that it was also attacked at sea. However, Kyiv denied that they were involved. When asked about Elbus, the Security Service of Ukraine didn't respond. The Turkish Transport Ministry was not available for comment. The Russian Embassy in Ankara did not respond to a request for comment. The Black Sea is crucial for shipping grain, oil, and oil products and its waters are shared with?Turkey. Russia. Ukraine. Bulgaria. Georgia. The Lloyd's notice stated that the vessel would be heading to Novorossiysk, Russia on Wednesday from Singapore. Marinetraffic data revealed that the Elbus sat down a few kilometers off the northern Turkish town of Inebolu, on Thursday. It had diverted its course from an earlier one to the east across the Black Sea. Lloyd's reported that the ship dropped anchor on its own at Inebolu Anchorage. The Inebolu Harbour Master did not answer calls.
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Ukraine restores power to southeast following Russian strikes
On 'Thursday, Ukrainian officials raced to restore power after Russian strikes plunged the two regions in the south-east into a?near total blackout overnight. Critical infrastructure was forced to rely on reserves. Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukraine's power system, as Ukrainian forces fight off Russian advances in the battlefield and Kyiv is under U.S. pressure for a peace agreement. The Deputy Premier of Ukraine,?Oleksiy?Kuleba, said that repairs are still being carried out to restore heat and water supply to over 1 million customers in the industrialised area of Dnipropetrovsk. Energy ministry reported that nearly 800,000 customers in the affected region were still without power early Thursday morning. However, the other region, Zaporizhzhia, had been restored. Zaporizhzhia Governor Ivan?Fedorov stated that it was the first total blackout in his region "in recent years", but that officials were quick to react. "A difficult evening for the region." "But 'light" always wins," wrote he on Telegram?on Thursday. Ukraine's Energy Ministry said that eight mines in the Dnipropetrovsk area had experienced blackouts but that workers?had been evacuated. Mykola Lukashuk is the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council. He said that it could take a full day to restore water supplies in the city of Pavlohrad. The Prime Minister Yulia svyrydenko warned late on Tuesday of an impending "cold snap" in Ukraine. On Wednesday, the energy ministry said that weather conditions have already caused power outages in some settlements across at least four different regions. (Reporting and editing by Philippa Feletcher; Dan Peleschuk)
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French aerospace companies worry about 'weaponisation of global supply chains'
France's aerospace sector expressed concerns on Thursday about the "weaponisation of global supply chains" as major powers pursue their geopolitical goals. It also warned that rare earths remain a possible pressure point, despite an?U.S. - China trade truce. Olivier Andries is the president of France's GIFAS aeronautical association and CEO of Safran. He said that 90% of the industry’s needs for rare elements are supplied by China. "There's a trend to weaponise the supply chain and use the dependence on critical supplies as a means of creating a geopolitical edge. This is especially true for 'rare earths, which is a sensitive subject," he said. Many modern products such as jet engines contain small but significant amounts of rare earths, or the magnets that they are made into. Andries said that he was concerned about the lack of an internal budget for 2026. He added that parliamentarians have "lost direction". Sebastien lecornu, the French prime minister, is trying again to pass a budget after the lawmakers passed an emergency law. Andries stated that France's plans for defence are progressing well, despite the increased spending in Europe due to the political pressure from the U.S. and the conflict in Ukraine. Asked about the future ?of a Franco-German-Spanish fighter project, which is engulfed ?in disputes between Airbus and Dassault Aviation, Andries said: "There is a very strong political will at ?the highest level in France and Germany to go ahead. For things to progress, there must be agreements and manufacturers who are willing to work together. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Jane Merriman, Florence Loeve)
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Sweden wins winter power reserves from two producers through a repeat tender
The Swedish 'electricity grid operator' said Thursday that it had allocated 350 megawatts under a new tender for a?power?reserve?for this winter, after the previous attempt failed. Grid operator Svenska kraftnat decided to try a second time under a different framework after the failure to secure reserve power earlier this year increased the risk for power shortages in the winter months. The volume of the second tender is lower than what was sought. In a press release, Svenska kraftnat announced that it had acquired 330 MW of power from Uniper subsidiary Sydkraft’s?Karlshamnsverket, located in Karlshamn, south-west Sweden. It also said that Malarenergi’s Aros G4 was located in Vasteras west of Stockholm. It did not mention the average price per megawatt. The initial process was a failure because the bids exceeded a cap of 120,000 crowns for each MW. A framework amendment allowed prices above the cap to be accepted, even though the budget overall did not change. In the initial bid, the grid operator sought to reserve up?800MW of backup electricity generation capacity during the period. The total cost and maximum size of the strategic reserves for this period is the same as the previous procurement. 96 million crowns ($10.4 millions) and 800MW are the figures that were announced on Thursday. The agreement covers the period from January 15 to March 15. Thomas Palsson, Director General of the Swedish Defence Forces said: "I am delighted that we have achieved our goal to create a strategic reserve." Karlshamnsverket uses oil. Aros G4 combines heat and power from biomass.
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Shell warns about chemical loss if it sticks to LNG production outlook
Shell said it had lowered its projected range for fourth-quarter production of liquefied gas but remained within the previous guidance. It did this in a trading report on Thursday as it warned about a loss?in its chemical business. It said that its chemicals and products segment's earnings would be below breakeven in the fourth quarter. This will be dragged down by chemicals margins, which are expected to fall to $140 per metric ton, from $160 a ton in the third quarter. Also, there was a tax adjustment, as well as significantly lower trading results. Shell expects to liquefy 7.5 to 7.9 million tons of LNG. This is within the previously predicted range of 7.4 to 8 million tonnes. It forecast its indicative'refining profit margin to increase to $14 per barrel in the fourth quarter, up from $12 the previous quarter.
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Bousso: Trump's "Donroe doctrine" could cost US oil companies their jobs if it targets China.
Donald Trump has announced his intention to import Venezuelan oil that was previously sanctioned into the U.S. This will disrupt the global energy game plan and highlight the seriousness of Trump's administration's ambitions to dominate the Western Hemisphere. This "Donroe doctrine" - Trump's rebranding a 19th century doctrine that asserted Washington’s zone of influence throughout the Americas - may ultimately target China. But?U.S. Oil companies may suffer unintended consequences. Trump said on Tuesday that Caracas had agreed to export $2 billion of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. It was only days after the U.S. ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and demanded that the Latin American nation open its energy sector to American oil firms - or face further military intervention. Trump announced in a post on social media that Venezuela would "turn over" 30 to 50 million barrels sanctioned oil. Although the timeframe of the deal has not been revealed, it is likely that shipments will begin soon. Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary of the United States, said that U.S. Needs to Control Venezuelan oil revenues and sales will be used to fuel the desired changes in Venezuela. Trump's plan is primarily aimed at China, who accounted for around 400,000 barrels of oil per day in Venezuela's exports last. According to Kpler, this is more than 50% of Venezuela's total oil exports and two-thirds according to ROI calculations. The U.S. could seize the equivalent of four months' worth of Chinese oil supplies, and about 55 days of Venezuelan production, which is currently around 900,000 barrels per day. The Trump administration also reportedly instructed Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rod to cut economic ties with China. PetroSinovensa is the largest Chinese oil asset in Venezuela. It's a joint venture between Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA, and China National Petroleum Corp. The JV is located in the Orinoco Belt, and produces around 65,000 barrels per day. The Trump administration's actions against Venezuela are part of a broader geopolitical plan. This is more than just rerouting barrels that were originally destined for China's refiners. Bob McNally is a former White House official and president of Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy. He says that it'signals President Trump’s intention to push China and Russia out of their strongholds in Venezuela. "DONROE DOCUMENT" IN ACTION The White House released its National Security Strategy late last year. The document called for a cementing of U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere, by pushing out rivals and restoring American control on energy and supply chains. The "Donroe Doctrine", as it is known, is a reference to the former U.S. president James Monroe's 1823 declaration that the Americas would no longer be open for future colonisation by European countries. Trump's threats to seize Greenland this week, an Arctic island that is a part of Denmark and has its own self-governing government, also align with these ambitions. Investors may want to take the White House national security strategy, and its words, more seriously. He told reporters that the "dominance of America in the Western Hemisphere" would never be questioned again. BLOWBACK FROM BEIJING U.S. oil companies are in a tough position because of the American actions in Venezuela. Exxon Mobil and Chevron, for example, could be facing legal issues if they enter into an agreement with Venezuela's government to invest in assets that were previously owned by Chinese or Russian firms. Trump's unilateral action could also lead to China's retaliation, which would put the assets of U.S. firms abroad at risk. U.S. major oil companies have a number of joint ventures with Chinese firms. Exxon, for example, wholly owns and runs a massive petrochemical facility in southern China that began operations last year after a $10 billion investment. Chevron also owns stakes?in joint ventures upstream in China, as well as in downstream operations for fuels and oils. Both companies have also signed large contracts for the supply of liquefied gas to Chinese customers. Of course, the risk extends beyond China. If American companies are increasingly seen as state-owned, host governments may be more reluctant to work with them. Although the U.S. President may not see any downside to ignoring international conventions and rules, American companies might. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights, and links to trending articles every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
China's top diplomatic official tours Africa to focus on strategic trade routes
China's top diplomatic official began his annual New Year tour in Africa on Wednesday. Beijing is seeking to secure important shipping routes and supply lines as it seeks to secure strategic trade access?across Eastern and Southern Africa.
On his trip this year, Wang Yi will visit Ethiopia, Africa's largest economy with the fastest growth rate; Somalia, a Horn?of Africa?state that offers access to important global shipping lanes, Tanzania, a logistic hub connecting minerals-rich central Africa and the Indian Ocean, and Lesotho - a small economy in southern Africa squeezed by U.S. Trade Measures.
Beijing wants to promote countries that it considers model partners in President Xi Jinping’s flagship 'Belt and Road" infrastructure programme and expand export markets. This is especially true for young, affluent nations like Ethiopia, where IMF predicts a 7.2% growth this year.
China, the largest bilateral lender in the world, faces
Growing competition
The European Union will finance African infrastructure as the countries that have been hit by debt crises due to pandemics are now looking for investment rather than loans.
A spokesperson for the ministry said that "Foreign minister Wang's trip aims to strengthen?political trust and mutual trust" and added that the trip will "increase exchanges and mutual understand between the two greatest civilisations in China and Africa".
Wang opened 2025 ?by
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Namibia, the Republic of Congo and Nigeria.
First Dilplomatic Mission to Somalia in Decades
It is believed that his upcoming trip to Somalia will be the first visit by a Chinese foreign minister since the 1980s. This is also expected to give Mogadishu a diplomatic boost, after Israel was the first country to recognise the breakaway Republic of Somaliland - a region in the north which declared independence in 1991.
Beijing, which reaffirmed its support for Somalia following the Israeli announcement made in December, wants to strengthen its influence around Gulf of Aden. This is the entrance to Red Sea, and the most important corridor for Chinese commerce transiting the Suez Canal into Europe.
Tanzania, further south, is a key part of Beijing's plan for securing access to Africa's vast deposits of copper. Chinese firms are refurbishing Tazara Railway, which runs through the country and into Zambia. In November, Li?Qiang visited Zambia for the first time in 28 years.
The railway is viewed as a counterweight against the U.S.-backed Lobito Corridor that connects Zambia with Atlantic ports via Angola, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
CHINA - FREE TRADE IN LESOTHO
Wang's visit to Lesotho in southern Africa is intended to show Beijing's efforts to establish itself as the champion of free-trade. Last year, China granted tariff-free access to its $19 trillion market for the world's most impoverished nations. This was in fulfillment of a promise made by Chinese President Xi Jinping during the 2024 China Africa Cooperation Summit.
Lesotho is one of the poorest countries in the world with a GNP of less than $2 billion. Last year, it was hit hard by the tariffs of Donald Trump, which imposed duties up to 50% on exports. (Reporting and editing by Himani Sarkar; Kate Mayberry, Louise Heavens, and Himani Sarkar)
(source: Reuters)