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Maguire: Key energy and output figures to be tracked as Germany charts its economic revival

German businesses hope that after two rare economic recessions in 2023-2024, a new coalition government of the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats will be able to revive Europe's biggest economy in 2025.

The economic problems that Germany has faced in recent years are attributed to a number of factors, including high energy costs, weak demand from consumers, fierce competition from China, and a lack supportive policy reform. These challenges will remain for the new government. The Sunday election results suggest that CDU/CSU could form a coalition with only one other party, avoiding a repeat of previous governments' three-party coalition which struggled to change Germany's policy landscape.

Friedrich Merz, the incoming German Chancellor, has announced that coalition negotiations will start immediately. He lists industrial growth and employment creation as his top priorities.

Here are some key data points that you can track to see the impact of policy changes in Germany.

Power Prices

German industry has blamed high energy costs for a significant growth impediment in recent years. This makes German products uncompetitive globally.

The German wholesale electricity prices rose to a median of 235 Euros/MWh by 2022, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict halted natural gas supplies to Europe.

This surge in energy costs hit all major German consumers of energy in 2022, as well as for the majority of the year following. It also led to a significant reduction in industrial gas consumption.

The wholesale power price has fallen to around 80 euros/MWh on average in 2024 but is now back up to 120 euros/MWh. This is due to the rising natural gas prices in each region, which are a major factor in setting regional power costs.

Power prices will continue to be a key indicator of industrial health.

German power companies already plan to increase renewable energy generation by 2025. However, new policies that accelerate clean energy additions can help boost overall electricity supplies and possibly cap wholesale prices.

The high dependence on natural gas in Germany for electricity production means, however, that the influence of Germany over power prices is unlikely to be within reach of both policymakers and producers.

GAS FIX

Another factor that determines the future of Germany is the share of natural gases in the mix for power generation.

According to Ember, Germany will generate 17% of its electricity by 2024 using gas, and 95% of it from imports, says the Energy Institute.

This was the highest gas generation share since 2020 and shows that Germany has become more gas-dependent despite the reduction in Russian pipeline supplies since 2022.

In order to replace the decreased Russian gas supplies, Germany has increased gas imports in the form liquefied gas (LNG), a product that can cost up to multiple times as much as gas delivered via pipeline.

Government policies that lower the price of imported gas can help increase power consumption by industry.

The incoming German government will likely struggle to pass legislation to lower the cost of gas for power companies without the opposition of parliament members against debt increases.

Output and Trade

German industrial production has been slowed in recent years due to high energy costs and weak demand. This includes steel, chemicals, fertilizers, and other products that are energy intensive.

The German car industry has been affected by the weakening demand from local consumers as well as China's record-high exports of vehicles.

The new German chancellor has campaigned to expand the industrial base of the country and pledged to protect and grow the jobs in this sector.

Changing tax and spending levels is necessary to stimulate demand for German industrial products. This may again be met with opposition in parliament from other parties.

The policymakers could also try to boost Germany's trade, which has been in decline since 2022 due to a weakening global demand for goods and a stiff competition by other nations.

The incoming German government will have limited influence on exports in the short to medium term, given the impending tariffs of U.S. President Donald Trump and the ongoing trade disputes between Europe & China.

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at. ($1 = 0.9559 euros)

(source: Reuters)