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China Oil Port to Ban Shadow Fleet
According to a notice from the terminal operators of a major oil-port in East China's Shandong Province, they plan to implement measures to stop shadow fleet vessels visiting and to limit visits by old tankers. The measures will come into effect on November 1 and ban ships older than 31 years old, as well as vessels with fake International Maritime Organization (IMO) numbers. Traders said that this would be a direct attack on the so-called shadow fleet, which transports oil in violation of Western sanctions. The notice was issued by four terminal operators in Huangdao Port, last week. It came a month after an oil terminal at Dongjiakou Port, near Huangdao, had been designated by the United States as receiving Iranian crude oil transported by ships under sanctions. Huangdao, as well as Dongjiakou, are both located in the larger Qingdao Port area. This is the main Chinese entry point for Iranian Oil. China, Iran's largest oil client, has repeatedly defended oil transactions with Iran, and opposed unilateral Western sanction. NO IMMEDIATE REACTION Qingdao Shihua has not commented on the incident yet, nor have any of the three other companies been contacted. The new risk-rating regulations for tankers appear to be a preventative step, driven by rising U.S. pressure on sanctions, even though this isn't explicitly stated in the notice," said Emma Li. She works as a China analyst at tanker tracking company Vortexa Analytics. Li said that the impact of this is likely to be minimal, as Huangdao plays a relatively minor role in handling tankers with high risk compared to other Shandong port. According to the document we reviewed, vessels with invalid or expired certificates issued by various international agencies and those who have a history of pollution or accidents in the past three years are also barred from calling. Terminal operators will also introduce a scoring system to rate the level of risk for vessels: the older the ship, the lower its score. A vessel rated at 55 or less will not be allowed to anchor if the terminal operator gives it a 100-point score. Document shows that the scoring system takes into consideration the classification society of a vessel and its pollution liability coverage. Terminal operators include Qingdao Haiye Oil Terminal Co., Qingdao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal Co., Qingdao Gangxin Oil Products Co. and Qingdao Lixing Logistics Co.
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French court opens new trial 16 years after AF447 Air Disaster
The French Court of Appeal will start a new trial Monday against Air France and Airbus, 16 years after the crash of a jetliner into the Atlantic that killed all 228 passengers. In 2023, a lower French court cleared the two companies of corporate murder following a landmark public trial on the June 1, 2009 disappearance of Flight AF447 en route between Rio de Janeiro and Paris. French investigators discovered that after a two-year hunt for the A330 black boxes, pilots mishandled temporary data loss from iced up speed sensors, and sent the jet into a free fall or aerodynamic stall, without responding. The trial, which took place more than a century later, also revealed discussions between Air France (now Airbus) and the sensor manufacturers about the growing problems of the "pitot sensors" that produce speed readings. A Paris judge, after nine weeks of evidence gathered by Airbus, listed four negligent acts by Airbus. He also found one act of negligence on the part of Air France. However, the French criminal code did not allow him to prove a definitive connection between the two. The prosecution appealed and demanded a two-month new trial, which would include a fuller presentation of the evidence rather than just focusing on legal issues. The AF447 tragedy has been one of the most discussed in aviation, and it led to a variety of changes both technical and training. The prosecution has argued that Airbus failed to adequately train pilots and reacted too slow to the increasing number of speeding incidents. Both companies deny any criminal wrongdoing. However, the previous trial revealed bitter divisions among two of France's leading companies about the relative roles played by pilots and sensors in the country’s worst air accident. The maximum fine for corporate murder is only 225,000 euros, but prosecutors think a new trial can have a cathartic impact on families who were angry about the previous verdict and vowed to continue fighting for criminal liability. The chief executives of Airbus, a part of the Franco-Dutch Air France KLM, and Air France are expected to give statements at the opening hearing on Monday, starting at 11:30 am local time (1130 GMT). (Reporting and editing by Alistair Bell; Tim Hepher)
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Seychelles Presidential vote to be run-off, Electoral Commission says
After the first round of voting failed to produce a clear winner, the Seychelles Presidential election will be decided by a run-off between the opposition leader Patrick Herminie (left) and the incumbent president Wavel Ramkalawan (right), the electoral commission announced on Sunday. Ramkalawan was trying to stop the return of a party that had dominated Africa's richest country per capita for 40 years. The western Indian Ocean archipelago attracts investment and security co-operation with China, Gulf countries and India. The electoral commission reported that Herminie, leader of the United Seychelles party (US), secured 48.8%, followed by Ramkalawan of the Linyon Demokratik Seselwa LDS with 46.4%. In the first round, neither candidate reached the 50% threshold needed to win outright. The US party made a significant gain in the National Assembly as well, winning 15 seats by constituency and four additional seats by proportional representation. This gave it a clear majority. LDS won 11 seats in constituency and four seats proportionally, leaving its main rival behind the ruling party. The two leading candidates in the race for the presidency will now compete in a second, decisive round that is scheduled from 9-11 October. The winning candidate will receive a mandate of five years. The electoral commission reported that nearly 82% of voters registered participated in the first ballot, which took place from Thursday to Sunday. Reporting by Gabriel RobertGironcelle, Writing by Portia Crowe; Editing and Revision by Andrew Cawthorne
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Kuwait Airways restructures its capital to write-off nearly $1 billion in losses
The official gazette reported that a shareholder meeting at Kuwait Airways, a state-owned airline, approved reducing the capital to erase 300 million dinars of losses accumulated over time. Kuwait Airways has previously stated that it plans to break even by 2025, after years of losses. The airline hasn't disclosed its financial results from 2023 or 2024. Regional carriers were also affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, as their global counterparts. However, many Gulf airlines are now a key player in regional efforts to diversify economies, particularly in tourism. MEETING APPROVES CAPITAL REDUCTION Kuwait Airways' chairman stated in August that the airline is having difficulty achieving its goals, such as breaking even and increasing the number of passengers, due to the geopolitical tensions in the region and delayed aircraft deliveries. Kuwait's official Gazette reported that the extraordinary general meeting, which was held on September 2nd, had approved a decrease in the carrier's capital paid up by 294 millions dinars. It also said it had reduced its legal reserve of 6 million dinars. The assembly also approved an increase in the airline's capital issued by 300 million dinars. This will be "called up" according to a schedule set by Kuwait Investment Authority, which owns all of the shares. Gazette stated that the capital of the airline was 983.66 millions dinars after the changes. The company has not responded to the request for comment.
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Denmark bans drone flight after new drone sightings on military bases
Denmark banned civil drone flights on Sunday after drones were spotted at military facilities over night. This ban follows a week of drone sorties that caused temporary closures of Danish airports. In a press release, the Danish military stated that it had deployed “several capabilities” in response to overnight sightings of drones at bases. It declined further comment as to the nature and extent of its response. Denmark was forced to close airports due to drone sorties in the first part of this week, including Copenhagen Airport which was closed for nearly four hours on Monday. Denmark has described the drones as part of a hybrid attack. The country has not said definitively who they believe is responsible. However, Prime Minister Mette Fredericksen suggested that it could be Moscow. She called Russia the "primary" "country which poses a serious threat to European Security". The Kremlin has denied any blame. The ban will apply to civilian drones in the airspace of Denmark from Monday through Friday next week when Denmark will host European leaders. Denmark is currently holding the rotating EU presidency for the second half this year. In a Sunday statement, Defence Minister Troels Poulsen stated that "we are in a very difficult security situation and must provide the best working conditions possible for the armed services and police as they will be responsible for the security of the EU summit". Denmark will host EU Leaders on Wednesday. This will be followed by a Summit on Thursday for the 47-member European Political Community. The EPC was created to bring together the EU and other friendly European Countries after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On Sunday, a German air defence frigate arrived at Copenhagen to help with airspace monitoring during the high-profile event. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff. Stine Jacobsen)
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Gaza flotilla sails once again; Italy's Tajani warns about danger
A flotilla of international aid that had paused in Greek waters to repair for a few days has now set sail for Gaza. The activists hope to break Israel's blockade on Gaza and deliver humanitarian aid to the Palestinian territories. The organizers announced on Sunday that Greek boats had joined their flotilla. This means that the flotilla of 47 civilian boats is now "complete". "Brothers, sisters and friends in Gaza, with hope in our heart we sail. Your resilience is our guide, and your struggle is also our struggle. Together, we'll break the silence surrounding the siege", the Global Sumud Flotilla posted on social media. Around 40 Italians, along with activists from dozens other countries including Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, are on the flotilla. They hope to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza within the next week. Antonio Tajani, the Italian Foreign Minister, repeated on Sunday a suggestion made last week that the flotilla take the aid to Cyprus to be distributed in Gaza by Roman Catholic Church. The flotilla refused the suggestion. "We've always warned that approaching Israeli waters is dangerous. We don't really know what will happen. Tajani told journalists that forcing the blockade was dangerous. Drones equipped with stun grenades, irritants and irritants struck the flotilla on Wednesday off Crete in international waters. The drones caused some damage but did not cause any injuries. Israel has not commented on the incident. Israel has said that it will use all means possible to stop the boats from reaching Gaza. It argues that the naval blockade it has imposed is legal because it is fighting Hamas militants within the coastal enclave. Italy and Spain deployed navy ships near the flotilla to perform rescue and humanitarian missions. Israel launched its Gaza offensive in response to the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023 on Israel, which resulted in 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages being taken back to Gaza. Gaza's health authorities claim that the offensive has resulted in more than 65,000 deaths. (Reporting and editing by Crispian B. Balmer)
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Nigeria to certify C919 jets for local airlines
Director general of the Nigerian civil aviation authority said that they are looking at certifying China’s C919 for Nigerian carriers. This is because Nigerian airlines have taken on more aircraft, and relations with Beijing have been warming. COMAC, a Chinese plane manufacturer, is currently producing the C919 narrow-body aircraft to compete with the leading Western planemakers Airbus & Boeing and has had several discussions with Nigeria about the aircraft. COMAC, a state-owned company, is facing challenges in its bid to expand into the African market. The two models of its planes do not have benchmark certifications by Western regulators and the company is behind in delivery targets. Due to trade disputes, the U.S. temporarily halted the exports of CFM engines used on the C919 this year. Nigeria, Africa's largest nation, with 230 millions people, is a potential aviation market. Director general of the civil aviation authority, Capt. Chris Ona Najomo told reporters that the agency was considering the lengthy certification process to allow the jet to fly on domestic routes. "We are looking at the certification for the aircraft." Najomo told the U.N. Aviation Agency's Montreal assembly that the certification of the aircraft is the first thing we need to do. COMAC OFFERS MAINTENANCE SUPPORT FOR NIGERIAN CARRIER Najomo stated that COMAC officials offered maintenance and training assistance for any planes operated Nigerian carriers and were exploring dry lease arrangements which involves leasing aircraft without crew. Najomo stated, "We told them it would be better if they could facilitate a dry lease agreement that was good." Abdullahi Ahmed expressed an interest in expanding the fleet of Nigerian airline NG Eagle beyond its three jets. He said he'd consider COMAC aircraft if they were certified and accompanied with maintenance and training assistance. The improved Aviation Working Group Rating of Nigeria reflects a stronger compliance with Cape Town Convention. This is a treaty which simplifies the leasing of aviation equipment. Najomo stated that this was an encouraging development for lessors and would allow the 13 airlines of the country to have access to newer aircraft on the leasing market. IATA data shows that while air travel is still expensive for many Nigerians it has fallen by 43.6% in real terms between 2011 and 2023. At the moment, only Chinese airlines operate the C919. Three airlines in Southeast Asia also fly COMAC's C909 regional jet.
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Flightradar24 reports that the airspace around Poland's Lublin and Rzeszow has been closed because of 'unplanned' military activity.
Flightradar24, a flight tracking service, said that Poland had closed the airspace around its cities of Lublin (southeast) and Rzeszow (southeast) until at least 4 am GMT Sunday because "unplanned military activities related to state security". After Russia began its attacks on Ukraine, the Polish military said that it had scrambled aircraft in order to secure its airspace. In a posting on X, the military stated that "Polish and allied aircraft began operating in our airspace in connection with the activity by the Russian Federation long-range aerial force carrying out strikes against the territory of Ukraine." The military described the actions taken as preventive, and that they were aimed at protecting airspace and citizens. Ukraine's Air Force data shows that air raid warnings are in place across the country at 0300 GMT.
Maguire: Key energy and output figures to be tracked as Germany charts its economic revival
German businesses hope that after two rare economic recessions in 2023-2024, a new coalition government of the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats will be able to revive Europe's biggest economy in 2025.
The economic problems that Germany has faced in recent years are attributed to a number of factors, including high energy costs, weak demand from consumers, fierce competition from China, and a lack supportive policy reform. These challenges will remain for the new government. The Sunday election results suggest that CDU/CSU could form a coalition with only one other party, avoiding a repeat of previous governments' three-party coalition which struggled to change Germany's policy landscape.
Friedrich Merz, the incoming German Chancellor, has announced that coalition negotiations will start immediately. He lists industrial growth and employment creation as his top priorities.
Here are some key data points that you can track to see the impact of policy changes in Germany.
Power Prices
German industry has blamed high energy costs for a significant growth impediment in recent years. This makes German products uncompetitive globally.
The German wholesale electricity prices rose to a median of 235 Euros/MWh by 2022, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict halted natural gas supplies to Europe.
This surge in energy costs hit all major German consumers of energy in 2022, as well as for the majority of the year following. It also led to a significant reduction in industrial gas consumption.
The wholesale power price has fallen to around 80 euros/MWh on average in 2024 but is now back up to 120 euros/MWh. This is due to the rising natural gas prices in each region, which are a major factor in setting regional power costs.
Power prices will continue to be a key indicator of industrial health.
German power companies already plan to increase renewable energy generation by 2025. However, new policies that accelerate clean energy additions can help boost overall electricity supplies and possibly cap wholesale prices.
The high dependence on natural gas in Germany for electricity production means, however, that the influence of Germany over power prices is unlikely to be within reach of both policymakers and producers.
GAS FIX
Another factor that determines the future of Germany is the share of natural gases in the mix for power generation.
According to Ember, Germany will generate 17% of its electricity by 2024 using gas, and 95% of it from imports, says the Energy Institute.
This was the highest gas generation share since 2020 and shows that Germany has become more gas-dependent despite the reduction in Russian pipeline supplies since 2022.
In order to replace the decreased Russian gas supplies, Germany has increased gas imports in the form liquefied gas (LNG), a product that can cost up to multiple times as much as gas delivered via pipeline.
Government policies that lower the price of imported gas can help increase power consumption by industry.
The incoming German government will likely struggle to pass legislation to lower the cost of gas for power companies without the opposition of parliament members against debt increases.
Output and Trade
German industrial production has been slowed in recent years due to high energy costs and weak demand. This includes steel, chemicals, fertilizers, and other products that are energy intensive.
The German car industry has been affected by the weakening demand from local consumers as well as China's record-high exports of vehicles.
The new German chancellor has campaigned to expand the industrial base of the country and pledged to protect and grow the jobs in this sector.
Changing tax and spending levels is necessary to stimulate demand for German industrial products. This may again be met with opposition in parliament from other parties.
The policymakers could also try to boost Germany's trade, which has been in decline since 2022 due to a weakening global demand for goods and a stiff competition by other nations.
The incoming German government will have limited influence on exports in the short to medium term, given the impending tariffs of U.S. President Donald Trump and the ongoing trade disputes between Europe & China.
These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at. ($1 = 0.9559 euros)
(source: Reuters)