Latest News

Andy Home: Warning lights flash when aluminium reels are impacted by Gulf shock

The Iran War is likely to be the largest supply shock in the history on the aluminium market.

According to the International Aluminium Institute, the Gulf's?production? of the metal, used in sectors such as packaging, solar panels and transport, plummeted in April to its lowest level in more than a decade. The regional run-rates fell by 2 million metric tonnes annually between March and April.

In missile attacks, two Gulf aluminium smelters were damaged. The?Al Taweelah facility of Emirates Global Aluminium will require a full year to be repaired. One other producer,?Qatalum, has also reduced its?capacity.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes major logistical issues for those who are still operating.

The Gulf is the largest non-Chinese producer and a major supplier of goods to Japan, South Korea and the United States.

The London Metal Exchange's (LME) price isn't indicative of the scale of the impact on supply. At $3,650 a ton, it is only up 14% since hostilities began and is still far below the 2022 highs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The market dashboard is flashing red.

LME TIGHTENS as Stocks Flow Away

First, the LME spreads have been sharply tightened.

The benchmark spread between cash and three-months at the LME Cash is trading at a $80 premium and the market has not been this tight since 2007. The squeeze was short-lived and only affected short position holders. This time, the tightness appears to be structural and persistent.

The reason is that traders have raided the LME stock, which was already low. They are trying to fill in the supply chain gaps created by the loss of Gulf Production.

LME registered stock has fallen by one third, to 339 475 tons, since the beginning of the year. In the last two weeks, almost 68,000 tonnes have been cancelled to prepare for physical loading-out.

Gwangyang, a South Korean port, is the main storage location for Russian aluminum that was left over from LME's warrant. The sanctions against the Ukraine war have made it impossible for European or American buyers to purchase this aluminium.

These recent daily withdrawals are not transfers to off-warrant stock. The LME's "shadow" stock has also been dwindling and is the lowest it's been since the exchange began reporting off-warrant storage in?2020.

PHYSICAL PREMIUMS SURGE

Second, the increase in physical premiums across the globe is a warning sign.

Since the beginning of hostilities, the CME spot premium has increased by more than twice as much to $316 a ton over LME prices. Japanese buyers accepted a $350 premium for their second quarter deliveries. This is the highest price increase in 11 years.

Since the beginning of March, the European duty-paid premium grew by 58%. The duty-unpaid premium grew by 75%.

Due to import tariffs of 50%, the U.S. Midwest premium is up by only 8%. However, American buyers are already paying record prices to secure metal.

The Gulf supply shock is most evident in these manifestations. What is less visible is the situation in segments of the market that are not exchange-traded, such as billets. This product is used by the construction and transport industries.

Fastmarkets, a price reporting agency, reports that the premium in Rotterdam for aluminium 'extrusion billets has doubled, to $1,100, over the LME basis price.

STRUCTURAL DEFICIT

The relative calmness of the LME's outright price masks a tightening along the processing chain.

While LME traders price in the ebbs and flows of headlines surrounding the Iran War, physical buyers pay up to secure "enough metal" in a market heading towards a structural shortage.

Mozal, a smelter located in Mozambique, was closed due to high energy prices.

According to the latest IAI figures, the combined impact of the?hit' has resulted in a drop of 2.4 million tons in Western production during the past two months. The situation could get worse if the Gulf smelters that are still producing cannot source enough raw material via routes which circumvent Strait of Hormuz.

China's giant aluminum production base has increased production, but it is now close to reaching the government's maximum capacity. There are few opportunities for significant growth.

The country's?exports are likely to increase in response to the Gulf supply disruption, but these shipments are more likely in the form semi-processed metals such as strips, foils and bars than raw metal.

The cushion can be a short-term one, but as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it becomes thinner.

This is a shock to a market that had been living with structural oversupply, and high inventories, for the past 20 years.

Aluminum prices are not yet reflecting the changes that have occurred in the supply chain. However, physical buyers already know the extent of the changes.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)