Latest News

Bousso: Section 899 could wreck Trump's energy dominance plan

Section 899 proposes a tax of up to 20% on the income of foreign investors

The proposal is included in President Trump's tax bill signature

The tax could have a major impact on the profits of European oil giants

Ron Bousso

LONDON, 12 June - A proposed U.S. Tax targeting foreign investors may hurt European Energy Giants that operate in America’s booming Oil and Gas Sector, undermining President Donald Trump’s energy dominance agenda.

The Senate is reviewing Trump's tax and spending plan, which includes an extra tax of up 20% on the incomes of foreign investors such as dividends or royalties.

The Section 899 tax was designed to push back against countries who impose "unfair foreign taxes", such as digital service taxes, on U.S. businesses.

Section 899 may target companies with headquarters in the European Union or Britain. Both countries have tax systems that are considered discriminatory by Trump's administration. This provision poses a serious threat to companies like Shell and BP, as well as TotalEnergies and Repsol in Spain and France.

Trump, who used the slogan, "drill baby drill", in his campaign for president, has presented himself as a pro-fossil energy, promising on his first official day to maximize oil and gas production. Section 899, if passed, could have the opposite impact.

BP invested over $6 billion in the United States last year, which is about 40% of their capital expenditure. This includes onshore and off-shore oil and gas operations as well as two refineries, tens of thousands of retail fuel station and a power trading company. BP employs more than a third (90,000) of its global workforce in the United States. The country also accounts for approximately 30% of its $189 billion revenue by 2024 and more than a fourth of its net profit of $21 billion.

Shell, Europe's largest oil company, has also invested heavily in the United States. This investment accounted for 23 percent of the $284 billion revenue that Shell expects to generate by 2024. Shell invests around 30% of its capital in the United States, where it operates oil and gas production plants, a petrochemicals facility, a vast network of retail outlets, LNG purchasing agreements, and major trading operations.

SHAKEN CONFIDENCE

In recent decades, the United States has become increasingly important for Big Oil companies thanks to its stable fiscal environment and regulatory framework. Other regions have presented a range of challenges.

Consider Russia as an example. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, its vast oil and natural gas reserves attracted many investors. However, the country has become uninvestable due to the western sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion in Ukraine in 2022.

In the Middle East where oil companies are dominant, there are also limited investment opportunities for western companies. Europe has few natural resources, and is governed by strict environmental regulations.

Oil and gas companies are multinational, so they have plenty experience in dealing with tax uncertainties. However, shifting tax policies tends to delay investment. To proceed with multi-decade projects like oil and gas fields, LNG plants or other large capital projects, company boards need to be confident for the long term.

In 2020, Joe Biden revoked a permit for construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline, which had already shaken the industry's faith in the United States. In 2024, the Biden administration halted all approvals of new LNG projects due to climate concerns.

Trump lifted the pause as he entered into the White House.

A HEAVY BLAST

Section 899 could impose a new tax to multinational companies on dividends and inter-company loan payments. This could reduce their profit.

Shell said that the Gulf of Mexico contributed about 10% of its $40 billion free cash flow in 2024. This means that Section 899 would reduce Shell's free cash flow by $800 million per year, just from Gulf of Mexico operations.

Calculations show that BP generated about $1.5 billion of free cash flow last year in the United States. A 20% dividend tax would result in a $300,000,000 loss of free cash flow.

Companies could choose to move their funds out of the United States if they are faced with worsening fiscal conditions.

Companies could decide to invest more widely, even though the options are limited for investing capital in other places on a comparable scale. This scenario would be beneficial for countries like Canada, Brazil Mozambique, and Namibia that have vast natural resources.

Companies could also move their headquarters and listing to the United States, but this would be a very expensive and complicated political option. Shell had previously considered such a move in order to increase its share price, but it seems to have abandoned that idea.

It is likely that, in the end, the Senate will push for a modification of Section 899, or a limitation on its scope, due to the potentially far-reaching impacts it could have on many sectors. Section 899, unless it is drastically changed, poses a serious risk to European oil and gas companies that are heavily reliant on the United States.

The president will listen to the European CEOs if they complain loudly about the Trump administration’s energy dominance agenda.

You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

(source: Reuters)