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Asian spot LNG prices decline on tepid demand, ample inventories

The price of Asian spot liquefied gas fell this week due to a lacklustre market. Prices are expected remain low as Chinese gas production and ample stocks limit the interest in spot purchases.

Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in November Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $11.20, down from $11.50/mmBtu in the previous week.

Go Katayama is an LNG and gas analyst with data analytics firm Kpler. He said that Asian LNG prices will remain somewhat bearish through next week due to increased domestic gas production, higher underground storage withdrawals in China, and abundant regional LNG inventories.

Katayama said that the upward revisions of China's domestic gas production estimates for September to December 2025 combined with the higher forecasted underground storage withdrawals from November are likely to replace additional spot LNG demand, and put downward pressure on Asian prices.

EUROPEAN Prices Keep to Tight Range

Prices in Europe were slightly higher on Friday morning, but still within the recent tight range. The gradual end of maintenance season in Norway has increased supply, while strikes in France have reduced LNG deliveries.

The disruption caused by the strikes at French LNG Terminals will likely last until the end of September. The strike has led to a rise in the price of gas in France, and sellers have been forced to move cargoes to LNG terminals around northwest Europe.

Katayama stated that Kpler has a stable outlook on the TTF front month contract for the coming week. This is because ample LNG and pipeline supply will help balance the gradual decline in renewable generation, and the lower Algerian piped flow to the EU.

Lack of competition in Asia has reduced the urgency for European market players to purchase winter goods.

Orbify, a data intelligence company, reports that 32 vessels will be heading to Europe in the next 14-days with 1,30 million cubic meters LNG.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in November ex-ship on September 25 at $10.954/mmBtu, a $0.65/mmBtu reduction from the November futures prices at the TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities rated the October price as $10.517/mmBtu. Argus rated the price at $10.681/mmBtu.

Xiaoyi Deng of Argus reported that in Egypt, LNG-laden vessels formed queues this week outside floating storage units due to scheduling problems at the terminals.

Spark Commodities analyst Edward Armitage said that the U.S. front month arbitrage to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope still encourages U.S. cargoes for delivery to Europe.

The global LNG freight rate for the Atlantic fell to its lowest level in five months, $21,500/day. Pacific rates have also weakened for the fifth consecutive week to $25,250/day. Marwa Rashad reported. Mark Potter (Editing)

(source: Reuters)