Latest News

US LNG producers sign near-record contract volumes, despite fees climbing

The U.S. industry is on track to sign the second highest number of contracts this year, despite concerns over rising costs and increased capacity. U.S. LNG companies signed sales and buy agreements (SPAs), totaling 29.5 million metric tons of LNG annually, in the first ten months of 2025. This is more than four-times the 7 mtpa of LNG signed by the entire year 2024.

The SPAs can be used by project developers as a tool to raise funding by demonstrating the ability of planned projects to generate a positive cash flow, with customers being locked into long-term contracts lasting up 20 years. According to Rapidan Energy, the only time that more binding agreements have been signed by U.S. companies was in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Many buyers who are looking to diversify their energy sources away from Russian gas are willing to pay the higher liquefaction charges that American LNG developers charge in order to convert natural gases into liquids that can be transported easily around the globe on specialized ships.

The companies with LNG trading portfolios also buy volumes from American producers.

Fears of GLUT are growing as US LNG output continues to grow. President Donald Trump returned in January, with an agenda that was pro-oil. In trade negotiations with Europe, he has pushed LNG deals. The European Union agreed to purchase $750 billion of energy from the U.S. and his administration lifted former president Joe Biden's ban on new project approvals. The final investment decisions that followed will add 61.5 mtpa to the existing 120 mtpa LNG export base. Cheniere Energy Venture Global Sempra Next Decade Woodside Energy and Venture Global have all approved new facilities in this year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the country's total LNG capacity is expected to double by 2029. According to the International Energy Agency, America could export a third of global LNG in 2030.

The IEA predicts that a rapid expansion of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) could lead to a global glut and lower prices.

Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA, said that new supplies, notably those from the United States and Qatar should bring down prices, a welcome relief to gas importers around world. Shell and Total have also forecast lower LNG prices, but some investors say that predictions are too optimistic.

Woodside CEO Meg O'Neill stated at a September event that "we're very bullish about LNG demand on the long-term." Venture Global CEO Mike Sabel forecasts a growth in demand as more data centers and Asian countries switch to LNG for electricity production. Sabel said, "I believe data centers will be a major source of incremental demand. But you are currently short on gas production capability."

Construction Costs are Rising

Jason Feer, Poten and Partners' business intelligence director, says that labor inflation due to shortages of qualified workers and the rising cost of equipment because of tariffs is increasing construction costs. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne stated on a recent earnings call that costs have risen up to 20 percent in some cases, making some projects uncompetitive. Venture Global reported cost overruns for its 27.2 mtpa Plaquemines facility. Golden Pass, an Exxon Mobil-QatarEnergy joint venture, is also over budget and late. Feer stated that developers are seeking liquefaction charges, which have risen by an average of 15% in the last two years, to keep their projects viable.

Venture Global, a supplier that is considered low-cost, charges $2.30 for every million British thermal units (mmBtu). This fee applies to new contracts. Two people familiar with its pricing said that the fee was higher than $1.75 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) it charged when Calcasieu Pass first contracted sales. Cheniere Energy, which is the largest U.S. producer of LNG, charges a premium over $2.75 for each mmBtu. Woodside offers 10-year contracts at $2.90/mmBtu. Feer added that the fees on the market in general had averaged around $2/mmBtu by 2023.

Higher prices are not stopping buyers. According to Rapidan Energy's director of global gas Alex Munton, the window for developing more LNG projects in the U.S. may be closing due to rising costs and the prospect that global prices will drop.

Munton said, "This bull-run must end. It cannot last forever."

Even with higher liquefaction costs and lower spot prices, some buyers like ENI and Petronas continue to sign new long-term contracts. JERA, Japan's biggest power generator, wants U.S. Gas to diversify, avoid over-dependence upon Australia, and meet the demand growth spurred on by data centers and AI.

Pouyanne, from TotalEnergies, said that many large players focus on the big picture and lock in new volumes of trade even though fees are increasing. Trading and arbitrage opportunities increase as the market grows.

The IEA stated that even a slight easing in the market would allow countries with higher prices to switch from coal, and increase global LNG demand. Curtis Williams, Houston (Reporting; Nathan Crooks, David Gregorio and David Gregorio).

(source: Reuters)