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The deceptive calm of the oil market will not last.

Physical oil is at the center of the storm, a calm that deceives after the initial panic to deal with the largest oil crisis in history. China's dramatic reduction in purchases has cushioned the blow of the Iran war so far, and U.S. exports have surged. This delicate balance could not last long, as the peak season for demand is approaching. The crude oil market is surprising calm, despite the sudden loss of nearly 20 million 'barrels of Middle Eastern Oil per day, or about a fifth of global supply, after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, shortly after the start of joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28.

This is because a large part of the world still has to adjust in a complicated, fragile way to ensure adequate supplies. Exports from the U.S., and other producers in the Atlantic Basin have increased dramatically. This has helped to fill a large part of Middle Eastern demand. China deliberately reduced its purchases, and other countries have been reducing their inventories in a rapid manner. This unexpected availability has eased the pressure on prices. Physical Brent crude oil is currently trading at around $110 per barrel, well below the peak of its crisis. This balancing act, however, is not sustainable. The oil market could enter a more dangerous phase as the closure of Hormuz is likely to continue for several weeks, despite the sputtering efforts to achieve peace.

SUPPLY CRUMBLING The initial reaction to the Middle Eastern shortage of oil in the?hardest-hit regions' was to cut consumption. Asia, where 60% of oil was sourced from the Gulf until February, took the brunt. Refiners closed down units and governments implemented energy-saving measures. Emergency reserves were also released in large quantities. According to Kpler Shipping Data, Asian crude imports fell in April to just?18.7 million bpd. This is a sharp drop from the average of 25 million bpd expected in 2025. Refiners were forced to find alternative feedstock in far-flung places, primarily the U.S.A. and Latin America. This shift has fundamentally changed global trade flows. According to Kpler's estimates, U.S. oil exports by sea reached a new record of 8.55 million barrels per day in April, and will likely surpass 10 million in May. This cements America's position as the largest oil and natural gas producer in the world. The wave of emergency purchases drove up physical oil prices in March and April. As refiners competed to secure limited supplies, crude oil from the Atlantic Basin reached a record-high of $150 per barrel.

Due to the long distances involved with shipping oil from these areas to Asia, there is a delay of up to 8 weeks between purchase and delivery. This means that replacement barrels have only just arrived. This, along with the dramatic drawdown of global crude inventories helps explain why the prices on the physical market have dropped significantly in recent weeks.

CHINA FACTOR China is another key player that has contributed to easing the global scramble. After the Iran War broke out, China, the world's biggest oil importer, drastically reduced its crude purchases. Kpler reports that from a near record of 11.5 millions bpd seaborne imports in February, shipments dropped to 8 million in April, and will drop even further to 6.9 million in May. This is the lowest level for nearly a decade.

In May, Chinese refiners largely avoided the market. They refused crude from Saudi Arabia and resold refined products from West Africa. This behaviour indicates that China's oil exports will continue to be low well into the summer.

Beijing's vast oil stockpiles were estimated at 1.3 billion barrels in February, which is roughly equivalent to four months worth of imports.

China does not provide detailed information on its oil reserves, which makes it difficult to determine how aggressively the country has used its reserves. The International Energy Agency reported that China's above ground crude stock fell by 7,000,000 barrels in march, marking the first drop in six months. The Paris-based agency does not have visibility into oil stored in underground caverns.

China's unique situation is highlighted by the 27% increase in Asian imports between April and may, when excluding China. Kpler predicts that U.S. exports to the region will nearly double from 1.1 million barrels per day in April to 2 million barrels per day in May.

DANGER ZONE

The relative calm of today should not be misinterpreted as a new equilibrium. The world's oil stocks are rapidly depleting as the Hormuz Crisis enters its 12th week.

According to the IEA, global inventories have dropped by 246 millions barrels, which is equivalent to 4 million bpd.

Refiners will also be looking to increase their supply in the near future, ahead of the crucial summer season for fuel consumption in Northern Hemisphere. Politics could impede the U.S. surge in exports. Gasoline prices could rise sharply if the U.S. inventory shrinks and summer demand increases. The Trump administration has denied any claims of oil export restrictions, but that could change once American consumers start feeling the pinch.

Overall, the market response to the "Hormuz" shock is a testament of the flexibility and depth?of the global petroleum system. The shock absorbers thin out with every passing day that Hormuz is blocked. The economic impact of this conflict will become more evident as summer approaches. Ron Bousso is a columnist at.

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(source: Reuters)