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The US has a glut of natural gas that is not being used by Asia or Europe.

By limiting Gulf exports, the war with Iran has increased prices for natural gas traded globally. Gas is so plentiful in West Texas that some producers have to pay for it to be taken away. Iran's attacks against Gulf energy producers and the?war have stopped 20% of the global supply of?liquefied?natural?gas. The Qatari LNG plants have been damaged, and tankers are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz at the Gulf's entrance because of Iranian threats of firing on them.

The global gas market has been split by the crisis: import-dependent countries in Europe and Asia are scrambling to find scarce supplies while the United States, the world's biggest gas producer, consumer, and exporter, remains overflowing with fuel and prices remain near 17-month-lows. The U.S. is unable to export gas because its pipelines are full. LNG plants are also at capacity. This has created a more dramatic split than the oil market. Gas futures in Louisiana, the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark, have fallen by up to 12% since the start of the war against Iran on February 28. Prices have also risen by 84% and 108% globally to $2.52 for a million British thermal unit (mmBtu).

The international benchmark Brent crude oil is currently trading at around $111 per barrel while the U.S. standard is $104 per barrel. Both have risen by?more than 50 percent as a result.

PAYING FOR GAS TO BE TAKEN AWAY? The United States have enough gas both to satisfy domestic demand as well as to fill LNG export plants, which cool the gas into liquid form. These plants were already nearing their maximum capacity prior to the war. Therefore, no matter how high gas prices are, the U.S. will not be able to export much more LNG.

The Permian Basin is the largest shale gas field in the United States. Prices are lower than benchmark futures. Spot gas is available at the Waha hub West Texas has

Trade below Zero

Gas pipelines from the Permian have been full this year. This means that there is no capacity left to transport fuel. Some producers are paying others to remove it, just like a waste product. According to the latest U.S. Energy Department outlook, U.S. Gas production will continue to rise to meet demand for data centers that are power hungry and supply new LNG export facilities.

As oil reserves diminish, the output also increases as oil producers increase their output and their wells produce more gas. At best, additional pipeline capacity will be available in a few months.

Bank of America analysts said that "meaningful transport relief?doesn’t appear until late this or early 2027 when it is anticipated that larger pipeline projects will begin," in a recent report.

New England is one of those areas that are most exposed to international gas prices. It must import LNG at high costs and burn oil in winter to generate electricity because it lacks the connections to the national grid for gas to meet the heating demand.

WINNERS AND LOSSES

The firms with the most excess LNG were the best placed to benefit from the price fluctuations caused by the 'Iran War, at least for the short term. Energy firms from around the globe have bought additional cargoes of U.S.-produced LNG to replace the gas that Qatar has canceled. Venture Global is the second largest LNG producer in the United States behind Cheniere Energy.

Bob Yawger is the director of energy futures for Mizuho. He said that Venture Global was (relatively new) to the LNG game. They had spot cargoes to sell to the highest bidder. "Suddenly, everyone needs LNG since QatarEnergy is no longer in the picture."

Based on the plants that are currently being built, the U.S. capacity for LNG will nearly double in the next five year from 18 bcfd to 35 bcfd.

U.S. Gas producers that sell to LNG companies haven't fared as well, because they are selling a large portion of their production?at domestic prices, which, in addition to the near-record output, was held down by a weak?spring market and an abundance of supply in storage. The low U.S. price has even prompted energy companies, like EQT (the second largest U.S. producer of gas behind Expand Energy), to reduce output as they wait for prices and demand to increase later in the year.

Jeremy Knop, CFO of EQT, told analysts that "our strategic curtailments serve as a storage method for gas during seasonal low demand periods."

(source: Reuters)