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Bousso: The exodus of oil from the Hormuz region sets up a chaotic rebalancing.

The price of crude oil may have returned to levels seen prior to the Iran War, but the surge of?oil exported from the Middle East after the reopening of Strait of Hormuz has created a market chaos that could take several months to settle. Brent crude prices have fallen steeply to levels seen before the Iran war, around $73 per barrel, following the U.S./Iran interim agreement. At first glance, this might suggest that business is back to normal in the world's largest oil and gas hub. The conflict had effectively paralyzed the narrow?waterway that once carried a fifth or more of global oil and natural gas for over 100 days.

The market may appear to be orderly, but it is not. What appears to be normal is actually a system that's trying to reboot itself all at once. There's a race to free trapped volumes. In recent days, dozens of tankers that were stranded in the Gulf during the conflict have been rushing to leave. U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright stated that flows briefly exceeded the pre-war level of approximately 20 million barrels per daily, but ship-tracking data shows overall traffic is still far below the roughly 125 crossings per day seen before the war. During transit, some vessels seem to disable tracking systems. This further clouds the picture.

Undoubtedly, the Middle East oil market is growing.

Clearing outbound cargo is just half of the equation.

Inbound tankers are required to load crude oil in storage on land, an important step to allow producers to restart the fields and refineries that were closed during the war. The recovery of supply will not be possible without this inflow.

This dynamic is especially acute for producers such as Kuwait and Iraq. Bahrain, Qatar and Bahrain have very few, if not any, alternative export routes. This constraint is expected to be temporary. Rystad Energy, a consultancy firm, estimates that the Gulf region's production was shut down by the middle of June from 11.7 millions bpd just three weeks before. By mid-June the figure had dropped to 9.6million bpd. The region is now expected to reach pre-war levels by December. Iran is a factor that may be even more important in affecting the outlook for supply. Iran is expected to rapidly ramp up its oil production following the U.S. lifting most sanctions that restricted Iran's oil sales and exports.

Rystad estimates that Iran's oil production could rise to 3.3 million barrels per day by the end of the year, above levels seen before conflict, if sanctions are lifted. A flood of oil is likely to reach the markets, regardless of logistics.

From SHORTAGE to GLUT

This surge runs headlong into a weak short-term market. The refineries in Asia, Europe and North America have already secured a large portion of their crude oil supplies for the months of July and August. This leaves extra barrels without a place to go. The only option for many tankers is to stay at sea and effectively turn into floating storage, keeping the barrels off of the market for several weeks. After experiencing the biggest oil supply shock ever, the market could soon face the reverse problem. Investors appear to have priced in a "mini glut" for the short term. Last week, Brent futures for August traded below September contracts, resulting in a new market structure known as contango. This was the first time this has happened since the beginning of the war on February 28. This contango may persist for several more weeks, as the oil backlog in the Gulf is slowly cleared. It is unlikely that this contango will last. Once the flow of crude oil returns to normal, the market needs enormous quantities to meet the recovering demand in Asia as well as replenish inventories all over the world.

Do you think that supply and demand can easily be brought back to balance? Most likely not. According to the International Energy Agency, while global supply is predicted to drop by 3.9 millions bpd by 2026, they expect it to rebound by approximately 8 million bpd by 2027, to 110.3 million.

The demand, on the other hand, is expected recover much more modestly. This could create a surplus of approximately 5 million bpd in 2019.

The physical constraints on the oil supply chain may prevent this scenario from occurring, but given the size of the possible supply-demand mismatch, the market is in for a bumpy ride.

LINGGERING RISKS

Exports are booming, but concerns over the future of the Strait of Hormuz have already returned.

The U.S. and Iran interim agreement stipulates that transit along the waterway will be free of charge for 60 days while Tehran negotiates a long-term framework with Oman to regulate traffic. This temporary agreement leaves a lot of room for uncertainty. In recent days, Iranian forces shot at a Taiwanese ship transiting the Strait, triggering a round tit-for -tat with the United States. These incidents were less an escalation and more a sign that Tehran wants to assert its power through the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority.

Although the Gulf traffic quickly resumed after the incident many shipowners, and charterers will likely remain cautious about sending vessels back there.

This caution is already reflected in the flows. According to LSEG, for every four tankers that left the region in the last week, only 'one' entered. This is far below levels seen before war.

The markets seem to have brushed aside concerns about political risks, logistical issues or long-term changes in the area. After months of disruption, it is unlikely that the road to equilibrium will be easy. This suggests that today's optimism in the market might be exaggerated.

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(source: Reuters)