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Bousso: Shuttles to Hormuz keep oil flowing at high costs

The Middle East's oil market is being reshaped by a new system of shuttling, as producers try to keep exports flowing despite an escalating conflict in the region. This complex and expensive process will either be a temporary measure or the 'new normal' for the global energy markets.

Rows of tankers are anchored several miles off the coast of Oman, south of Strait of Hormuz. They sit next to each other and are connected by ropes or hoses. This allows them to transfer crude oil from one vessel into another.

Transfers from ship to ship (STS), which are now in their seventh month, have become an essential 'lifeline' for Gulf producers as they adjust to the disruptions brought on by the Iran War. After loading, the tanker disengages from its ship and travels to its final destination, which is usually a refinery located in Asia. The "mother ship" returns via Hormuz back to the Gulf to reload, and repeat the entire process.

The system reduces the distance that any ship must travel and thus the risk of transiting through the strait. This is even though an increasing number tankers are passing through a narrow, protected corridor along Oman’s coast with their navigation systems turned off.

Kpler data shows that exports through Hormuz reached 6.5 million barrels a day (bpd), the highest level since the short spike following the ceasefire in June.

This operation is proof of the remarkable ability?of the energy industry to adapt to supply shocks. It is also a testament to how expensive and complicated it has become for oil to be moved out of the most important exporting area in the world.

HORMUZ STANDOFF

The Strait of Hormuz was responsible for a fifth or so of the global oil demand before the US-Israeli conflict erupted with Iran in February. Iran's blockade forced producers to cut production and divert traffic where they could.

Shipowners were reluctant to send their vessels into an area of conflict, and those who did demanded a premium that was unprecedented.

Energy industry is never still.

ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, developed a workaround to overcome a lack of tankers. In April, instead of using the vessels for round-trip journeys of several weeks, to buyers in Asia it began to use them as shuttle tankers transporting crude oil from Gulf terminals into?the safer waters of Gulf of Oman. The cargoes can then be transferred onto larger vessels for the next journey.

The strategy allowed for the continuation of at least a few?vital exports.

The UAE's oil exports are expected to exceed the average for 2025 of 3.4 millions bpd in September.

ARAMCO'S IN TOO

What started as an emergency response is now a thriving new industry.

Saudi Aramco relies more and more on STS operations, as disruptions in the Red Sea export routes have reduced the effectiveness of its alternative outlet.

Yemen's Houthi forces, backed by Iran, have tightened their grip in recent weeks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near the southern entrance of the Red Sea. On September 10, Iran-backed militants attacked the East-West oil pipeline in Iraq, cutting off approximately 4% of the global oil supply that was flowing into international markets through Yanbu on Red Sea.

This confluence of circumstances pushed Brent crude above $108 per barrel last week, before the Saudis informed buyers that they would continue to ship via STS transfers through the Omani route.

STS has been adopted by other?regional producers.

Kpler estimates that around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude will be transferred via STS in the Gulf of Oman alone in September, compared to 1.4 million in August. This is roughly 40% of what currently passes through Hormuz. STS was used very rarely before the war.

PARALYSIS IS NOT ADAPTATION

This floating logistics network is a great way to prevent a more severe supply crisis, but at a high price.

According to LSEG, benchmark freight rates for a VLCC transporting Gulf crude oil to?China have risen in recent months, reaching above $30 a barrel. This is the highest rate ever recorded. As crude oil prices are around $105, the freight cost is now over a quarter, compared to just 2% or 3% prior to the war.

Each additional transfer adds to the cost of global?oil markets. It requires more ships, takes more time, and costs more money.

To keep their exports competitive, producers have had to offer steeper discounts on their crude. They also absorbed a portion of the higher transportation costs.

The increase in STS transfers has also led to a shortage of tankers and a dramatic rise in global freight rates.

Keshav Lakhya, CEO at HiLo Analytics, said: "We're witnessing the largest wealth transfer from oil producers to owners of tankers."

The global energy market adapts to the increased geopolitical risks of today, rather than being paralysed. The 'Middle East oil trade' is becoming inefficient. It relies on a patchwork of military escorts as well as temporary transfer hubs and alternate routes, which were not designed to handle the volume.

The more fragile and expensive the global energy system is, the longer the conflict continues and the more routes are threatened.

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(source: Reuters)