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Middle East conflict slows bookings and increases rates

Industry sources said on Monday that the cost of chartering oil tankers for the Middle East-Asia route has risen and bookings of ships have decreased as concerns about potential disruptions are fueled by the Israel/Iran conflict.

According to LSEG, the global benchmark rate (TD3) for a very-large crude carrier (VLCC), which transports oil from the Middle East Gulf to Japan (MEG), rose by over 20% after tensions erupted on Friday.

According to a shipbroker, on Monday the MEG-Japan crude rate remained at W55 in the Worldscale Industry Measure.

However, traders, shipbrokers, and charterers took a watch-and-wait stance, even though market participants stated that they did not anticipate the Strait of Hormuz to be closed, a crucial shipping passage.

"Fixing from the area on Friday was almost at a standstill. Physical marks are not always indicative. Anoop Singh is the global head of oil brokering's shipping research. He said that ships in the Gulf are still searching for charters to go outbound.

Singh said, "But the situation is still dynamic and we expect to learn more at today's market opening."

Sentosa Shipbrokers says that although they have seen a slight increase in the freight rates, expect this to continue as the week goes on.

Emril Jamil is a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research who specializes in crude and fuel oils. He said that freight rates would depend on whether or not Iran escalates the situation and takes action on the Strait of Hormuz. Around 18 to 19 million barrels of oil and oil-based products are transported through this waterway every day, connecting the Gulf of Oman to the Gulf of Arabia.

The war risk premium will remain high for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing tensions between both countries. The premium will increase exponentially if the Middle East's oil and gas infrastructure is attacked, said Jamil.

If there are more attacks, he said that cargo insurance rates could increase from $3 to $8 per barrel.

According to three shipping sources' estimates, the freight rate for 90,000 tonnes of gasoline, jet fuel, or diesel from the Middle East was $3.3 to $3.5 millions late last week before the conflict. However, new rates have not yet been announced.

According to a Singapore-based trade source, some brokers have already given market indications for $4.5 million.

Sentosa Shipbrokers wrote in a client note that several shipowners have resisted offering vessels on routes in the Gulf, pending a more accurate picture of the situation. This could increase the number of opportunities for voyages to and from the Far East, west Suez, or northwest India.

(source: Reuters)