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Reactions to the new U.S. sanctions on Russian energy interests

The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions on Friday against the Russian energy industry, including oil giants Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz, in an effort to hinder Moscow's war with Ukraine.

Sanctions also target 180 vessels, dozens of oil traders and oilfield service providers as well as insurance companies and officials in the energy sector.

Here are some reactions from the major brokerages and agencies.

GOLDMAN SACHS

The Friday announcement confirms that we are inclined to believe the risks associated with our forecast of a Brent price range between $70-85 are more favorable in the short-term.

We estimate that in 2024, the ships targeted by new sanctions will have transported 1.7mb/d or 25% of Russia’s oil exports. The vast majority of this oil is crude oil.

"Across scenarios, long-term prices are limited by lower sanctioned supplies because we assume OPEC+ will stabilize the market using its large spare capacity by increasing production longer than our base case.

The latest sanctions targeted Russian oil tankers, which account for 42% of the country's seaborne exports. These are mainly to China.

The reduction in Russian fleet supply will increase freight rates.

"We have seen a limited impact on Russian oil production for the moment, but we expect a drop of 150 kbd in late Q3. Crude exports are expected to remain stable as crude is prioritized over dirty product exports.

This latest round of sanctions would result in a loss of around 0.88 million barrels per day of crude oil.

JP MORGAN

The West has a price cap of $60 for crude oil, so Russia will need to offer it at or below that level to be able to use Western tankers and insurance.

The new measures will give the Trump Administration additional leverage when it comes to future negotiations with Russia. It will decide whether, when and under what conditions to lift Biden's sanctions.

RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

The new Russian sanctions imposed by the incoming administration add to the supply at risk, increasing uncertainty in the outlook for 1Q'25. Brent could reach $80/bbl in the near future, even with margin pressures. We've seen the same scenario in recent years and the supply chain has always outperformed.

"...(Russian oil industry's ability to ship oil is further compromised by the new U.S. sanction on its oil sector. In the first 10 month of 2024, the main targets of the sanctions were Gazprom, and Surgutneftegas. They handled around 970kb/d by sea of oil. Some Chinese ports have been urged to ban sanctioned oil tanks from docking or unloading their terminals. (Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)

(source: Reuters)