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Maguire: Energy transition to divide manufacturers on both sides of the Atlantic

In the coming decades, manufacturers in North America and Europe will embark on radically different paths with regard to power sources. This could have a profound impact on the future of goods producers both on the east and west coasts.

Natural gas will remain the primary power source in North America thanks to the vast gas deposits found across the region.

By the mid-century, a European push to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports will see most factories run on electricity.

Diverging power paths have their own risks and benefits, and can impact on the competitiveness and efficiency of businesses.

Two of the largest economies in the world are building very different energy bases for the producers of finished goods, components, and other products they produce.

GEOLOGIC LOGIC

The geology of both regions is a key factor in determining the choice between gas and electric power systems.

According to the Energy Institute, North America and Europe both rely heavily on natural gas as a source of energy. Gas will account for 36% in North America, and 24% in Europe, by 2024.

North America, however, is the largest natural gas exporter in the world, mostly in the form liquefied gas.

Europe is heavily dependent on foreign nations to supply its gas.

Europe's heavy dependence on imports was known for decades. However, it only became a major problem after the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022. This led to sharp reductions in gas flow in the months that followed.

Price Pain

The fallout of Russia's invasion in Ukraine sent ripples through Europe's economy.

The prices of electricity and natural gases rose at different rates, which in turn has helped to drive energy policy decisions since.

According to Open Energy Tracker, electricity prices in Germany -- Europe's biggest economy and the former top importer Russian gas -- have averaged 50% higher than the 2010-2020 average.

The rise in electricity prices has caused a dramatic increase in the cost of power for households and businesses, as well as a reduction in overall energy consumption and statewide efforts to improve energy efficiency.

According to LSEG, however, the increase in electricity prices has been dwarfed in comparison to the regional natural gas price increases, which have averaged more than 90% higher in 2025 compared to the average from 2010 to 2020.

The outsized increase in regional gas prices compared to electricity has cemented the support for Europe's electrification effort, even though electricity remains far above average.

In recent years, the average price of electricity in the United States has risen much faster than the national natural gas price, resulting in a growing demand for gas to remain the main power source.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that the average electricity price in the United States is around 40% higher than the average from 2010 to 2020. Natural gas prices in the U.S. are about 12% higher than the average for 2010 to2020.

MANUFACTURING A CHANGE

According to DNV consultants, the diverging price trends of gas and electricity are expected to accelerate electrification among manufacturers in Europe. However, the dependence on gas for power will continue in North America.

While European and North American manufacturers consumed nearly the same amount electricity in 2024, around 3,800 petajoules, by 2050 European manufacturers were using almost 30% more electricity than North American counterparts.

By 2050, the share of manufacturers who are powered by electricity will also change significantly.

Electricity will be the primary energy source for approximately 33% of European manufacturers and 27% of North American producers by 2025.

By 2050, it is expected that 48% of European manufacturing will be electrified. This compares to 34% of North American manufacturers.

As a result of the increased electricity consumption by European manufacturers, natural gas usage by factories on the continent will drop sharply.

Around 28% of European manufacturer's are currently powered by gas. However, only 11% will be by 2050.

Gas-powered vehicles are expected to remain the same in North America through 2050.

FALLOUT

The projected shifts in energy sources pose a risk to manufacturers on both sides of the Atlantic.

The projected growth in LNG exports in North America could lead to increased competition among power generators, industrial users and gas suppliers, which would result in higher gas prices for businesses.

At the same, increased deployment of renewable energy, nuclear reactors, and other power supplies could drive down electricity prices and give manufacturers who use electricity a competitive advantage.

The increasing dependence on regional electricity markets in Europe will expose manufacturers to price volatility and possible outages, particularly in areas with old networks.

All European electricity users will likely face years of rate increases due to the extensive grid upgrades required to allow further gas reductions. This will reduce manufacturer margins.

It may not be the manufacturers who decide whether Europe's drive for electrification or North America's promotion of gas is the best strategy.

Due to the low shipping costs between the two regions higher-cost competitors will be undercut by cheaper overseas rivals who make similar products.

Most consumers will choose the cheaper version of similar products, no matter what power source was used in its production.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)