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Maguire: Germany's industrial growth could be re-ignited by the power of Germany.

Germany's electric output will grow by more than 10 percent in 2026. This could be a lifeline for the industrial sector, which is at the core of Europe's largest economy.

According to the energy think tank Ember, total utility-supplied electricity output has increased by more than 10 years. It now stands at 209 Terawatt Hours (TWh).

The?surge of power production has coincided with tentative?signs of?stabilisation of parts of the manufacturing sector of the country, including certain energy-intensive industries like?chemicals.

The total output and activity levels of Germany's industrial base are still well below their previous peaks. Total utility-supplied electric output is also around 19% lower than the peak reached in 2017.

Germany's clean energy supplies are nearing multi-year highs, and the annual growth of total electricity is expected to be the highest in many years.

POWERING A TUNNAROUND

This shift is important because the availability of energy and its affordability has been a major constraint for German industry ever since the energy crisis in 2022, which was triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In response, several major European energy consumers cut their purchases of Russian oil and natural gas. This has led to a sharp tightening on the local energy market.

Fuel and power prices soared, causing German businesses to lose money, forcing them to cut production and trigger a contraction in energy-intensive industries that are the backbone of Germany's manufacturing model.

The reverse dynamic is now beginning to emerge.

Wind and solar power are increasing, and they inject large amounts of electricity at low cost into the grid. This helps to stabilize supply and cap wholesale prices.

The average wholesale spot power price in Germany in 2026 has been around 96.4 Euros per Megawatt Hour, which is essentially flat in comparison to a year ago and the lowest in the last two years.

Even a modest reduction in electricity costs can have a significant impact on industrial users' profitability and production decisions.

Early signs suggest a slight easing of the situation. The producers of energy-intensive chemicals and goods are among those who have been hit the hardest in recent years. They show some signs of stabilisation with the increase in power availability.

A STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN SUPPLY

The source of expansion is what makes this difference.

Germany does not depend on fossil fuels, nor imports for supply. Instead, it relies on renewable energy produced domestically. The system is dominated by wind, but solar energy has been gaining ground, and it's setting records.

This is important for two reasons. The first is that renewable energy has near-zero marginal cost, so increases in production tend to lower overall electricity prices.

Second, electricity generated domestically reduces the exposure to volatile fuel markets globally, improving supply security, predictability, and reliability for industrial users.

These dynamics together create an operating environment that is more favorable for manufacturers today than it was before the energy crises.

LIMITATIONS ON THE REBOUND

All of this does not guarantee a complete industrial revival.

German manufacturing is still struggling with weak global demand. Rising competition from abroad and structural changes are key sectors like autos and chemicals.

The recovery will likely be slow.

Also, there are constraints in the system itself. Grid bottlenecks and intermittent renewables could limit the rate at which rising production translates to lower prices.

While electricity production is on the rise, total demand still hasn't recovered,?reflecting industrial users' cautious attitude.

The?ENERGY INDUSTRY FEEDBACK LOOOP

The direction is still becoming more clear. The industrial sector in Germany does not require a return of ultra-cheap electricity to stabilize -- it requires predictability, scale, and gradual cost relief.

Expansion of electricity supply has begun to achieve this.

The availability of more power can support a higher industrial output, which will in turn increase electricity demand and encourage further investment.

This feedback loop can help Germany to regain its competitiveness and scale over time.

A NEW POWER CHAPTER

Germany's economy has long been linked to its factories.

After the energy shock, however, this link may have been broken and the road to recovery could be in the opposite direction.

The current surge in supply of electricity will not only?light homes or charge cars -- it'll quietly reset the "economics" of manufacturing in one of the leading manufacturing hubs in the world.

The next chapter in Germany's industrial history may not start on the factory floor but on the grid.

The opinions expressed are those of the columnist, author. This column is a great read! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)