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Oil exports from Russia's western ports to fall 13% in Nov as refinery upkeep ends, sources say

Russia's crude oil exports from its 3 main western ports will come by 13% in November from the previous month to 1.95 million barrels each day (or some 8 million metric heaps) as refinery upkeep season is over, 2 trade sources said on Thursday.

Exports from Russia's western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk are carefully viewed by market participants consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC) members since they are the most volatile flows and heavily impacted by the domestic refinery intake.

Russia has actually kept high oil exports this year, while likewise admitting to oil overproduction, going beyond the amount agreed by OPEC+, which consists of OPEC and allies consisting of Russia. The nation promised to make additional cuts to compensate from the end of 2024.

Russia cut crude oil output in September by 28,000 barrels per day (bpd) to about 9 million bpd, OPEC stated, mentioning information from secondary sources such as consultancies.

Russian oil loadings from its western ports will drop in November from 2.25 million bpd in October.

Russian oil refineries are anticipated to increase runs next month after major seasonal maintenance in September-October. In November Russian oil refining will increase: Russia prepares to take offline simply 1.8 million lots of its refining capability down sharply from 4.4 million lots in October.

Lower offline refining capability generally suggests higher refinery runs and less petroleum offered for exports. Yet some Russian refineries are not eager to increase runs even after the end of upkeep due to weak margins, the sources said.

Profitability of export sales is still extremely low due to weak (oil products) margins, discount rates for Russian fuel and shipping expenses, one trader associated with Russian oil product sales said.

Refinery margins are weak worldwide. Oil refiners in Asia, Europe and the United States are facing a drop in profitability to multi-year lows, marking a slump for an market that had actually taken pleasure in rising returns post-pandemic and highlighting the extent of the current slowdown in global need.

If Russian oil refineries choose to keep refinery processing low, more crude oil will be offered for exports next month, the sources said.

(source: Reuters)