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Russell: Trump's unintended consequences of Canada's crude oil transfer to China are a lesson for him.
If there's a law of unintended effects, then the commodity markets are adapting to the reality and perceived threats of Donald Trump's tariff war. Trump's trade measures and tariffs have forced commodity producers, buyers, and traders to rethink long-established relations, adapt to new realities, and predict what could happen. It is clear that the commodity markets are adapting not only to the actual measures taken by the Trump Administration, but also the potential future actions. This has led to a desire to reduce exposure to the United States. One example is the seaborne crude oil exports from Canada that have shifted from the United States to China even though Trump has backed off his original plan to impose 10% tariffs on energy imports. The first time in history, Canada exported more crude oil by sea to China than to the United States. This shows how the market can change amid the uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff war. According to commodity analysts Kpler, Canada exported 299,000 barrels of crude oil per day to China in April. This is up from 277,000 barrels a day in March. The number of seaborne shipments into the United States in April was 286,000 bpd, which is roughly the same as March's 283,000 but lower than the record 431,000 bpd set in September last. The above figures only reflect the oil that is transported by vessel and do not include the much larger amounts of crude imported from Canada via pipelines and rail. Canada has been sending about 4 million barrels per day of crude oil to its southern neighbor via pipelines. While the volumes are steady, the prices have changed in Canada's favor, a result of Trump's chaotic policies. Western Canadian Select crude's discount to U.S. West Texas Intermediate is now at its lowest level in nearly 4-1/2 years, just under $9 per barrel. It was closer to $30 a few months ago. The sanctions that Trump imposed on Venezuelan crude, which is also heavy like Canadian crude, have reduced the amount available to U.S. refining companies. The United States refiners have to pay more because Canadian crude oil is in greater demand. The increasing price of Canadian crude calls into question the notion that Canada is more dependent on the United States. The United States appears to be quite dependent on Canadian crude oil, particularly if Trump has restricted the alternatives by imposing sanctions. SEABORNE SHIFT Canada also appears to have an advantage when it comes seaborne exports. Since the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion was completed in May of last year, Canada has increased its seaborne crude oil exports. Initially, it was expected that most of the oil would go to refiners in the U.S. West Coast. Canada's oil exports have changed since Trump returned to the White House late in January, and he increased his rhetoric as well as his actions against Canada's northern neighbour and former close ally. Although Trump has now backed off on any tariffs on Canadian energy imports, the damage is done. Canadian oil producers are eager to find alternative markets. Hence, China is the biggest oil consumer in the world. It has been eager to diversify its oil suppliers to reduce its dependence on the OPEC+ exporters. China has effectively stopped importing crude oil from the United States due to the increase in tariffs by Washington and Beijing following Trump's return. China has imposed a 10% tax on U.S. imports of oil, which is enough to make U.S. crude oil uncompetitive for Chinese consumers. Kpler reports that no U.S. crude oil is expected to arrive in China between May and June. China imported 417,000 barrels per day from the United States as recently as last June. The two grades of crude oil are not the same. China's oil trade is dynamic, and it is finding partners like Canada to help. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Maguire: Solar is Germany's leading electricity source for April
Solar farms will dominate the power sector in Germany for the longest period of time ever after becoming the largest source of generation in the country. According to LSEG data, solar farms produced more electricity than any other source in April. This was a full month earlier than in 2024, when solar farms were the primary power source in the country from May to August. Solar farms would power Europe's biggest economy for five months straight if they remain the largest source of energy through August. Fossil fuels would only play a secondary role. Germany's total electricity needs are expected to fall in summer, as the heating demand drops. The share of clean energy in the mix could reach record levels - accelerating the energy transition in this influential country. SOLAR'S SWELL The approximately 11,920 gigawatt-hours (GWh) generated by Germany's utility scale solar farms in April 2023 was 31% more than the power generated during that same month in 2024 and nearly 60% higher than in April 2024. LSEG data show that the total generation of solar farms in Germany also exceeded 10,600 GWh by Germany's coal-fired plants and 9,634 GWh by wind farms. This helped to cement solar as a major power source for spring and summer. According to Ember, the energy think-tank, the key to solar expansion is a 90% increase in solar generation capacity from 2019. By 2024 there will be 90 gigawatts in utility-scale solar power in place across the country. Solar power capacity has increased by 43 GW since 2019. This is a far greater increase than other energy sources. The German solar capacity is expected to increase by 20 % just in the next few years, after 15 GW were added last year. This larger footprint helped boost solar's share in the mix of generation to new heights. The 32% share recorded in April was up from the 23% in the same month 2024. Solar's share in the mix of generation will continue to break records in the months ahead. The record of 35%, set in July last year, is a realistic target for next month. COAL BATTERY BUFFER AND COAL BUFFER Solar farms can only produce power in daylight hours, so power companies must have other sources of generation ready to meet system demands. In 2025, coal power plants are the main alternative for renewable energy in the country. The coal-fired electricity generation has risen by 44% in the first four month of 2025 compared to the same period in the year 2024. The gas-fired generation of power also increased sharply from January to the end of April, by 26% compared to the previous year. This was to compensate for a severe shortfall in German wind farm output which fell by 31% between January and April 2024. The coal- and gas-fired power plants in Germany will continue to play a major role during the summer months, particularly in the evenings when solar production drops. Even if solar production ceases, the rapid expansion of utility-scale batteries will likely cap fossil fuel production this summer. According to SolarPower Europe a regional renewable energies association, Germany's utilities have added just under 6 GWh in battery storage systems each of the last two years. The largest battery base in Europe will allow utilities store excess solar power generated during the day and discharge it during peak evening consumption. Batteries will also help to reduce the amount of fossil fuels needed, allowing Germany to make the most of its solar resources. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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China and Philippines exchange blame for South China Sea clash
China and the Philippines exchanged accusations on Thursday after a confrontation between their vessels in contested water of the South China Sea. This was the latest incident of a longstanding maritime standoff along the strategic waterway. The Philippines' Fisheries Bureau said that the Chinese Coast Guard side-wiped and fired water cannons at a vessel conducting marine research near a disputed South China Sea Reef. The Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources has condemned the "aggressive interfering" of the Chinese Coast Guard in Wednesday's incident against the Datu Sanday and another ship, saying that its vessels hadn't previously been subjected water cannons. The Chinese Coast Guard reported that two Philippine vessels illegally entered the waters near Subi Reef, Sandy Cay, and organised personnel for landing on Sandy Cay. In a press release, the Coast Guard said it took what it called professional and legal control measures. It went ashore and verified and handled the situation. The Coast Guard stated that a collision took place after a Philippine vessel ignored multiple warnings, and dangerously approached a Chinese ship, placing the full responsibility of the incident on the Philippine's side. Chinese officials did not mention the use of water cannons in their statement. MaryKay Carlson, the U.S. Ambassador to Manila, described China's aggressive actions and said, in a posting on X that they "recklessly threatened lives and threaten regional stabilty." Sandy Cay is located near Thitu Island. This island is the largest and strategically most important of nine islands that the Philippines occupy in the Spratly Archipelago. China, Malaysia and Taiwan are also present. China claimed that its Coast Guard landed on Sandy Cay last month as part of its operations to exercise sovereignty. The Philippines denies that Beijing has taken control of the reef. China claims sovereignty in nearly the entire South China Sea including areas claimed Brunei Indonesia Malaysia the Philippines and Vietnam. China has rejected a 2016 decision by an arbitral tribunal that Beijing's broad claims were not based on international law. (Reporting and editing by John Mair, Timothy Heritage and Beijing Newsroom; Reporting by Mikhail Flores and Karen Lema)
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Venture Global is on course to become the top US LNG company if CP2 Project approved
According to LSEG and company statements, Venture Global will become the largest U.S. liquefied gas company next year if they continue to overproduce at their existing plants and proceed with their CP2 project. LSEG data shows that Venture Global, which was only founded three years ago, has a combined production capacity of 38.5 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa), from its two Louisiana plants. This could rise to 66.5 mtpa once it completes the construction of its newest project, the 28 mtpa CP2 facility, also in Louisiana. This would place the company ahead Cheniere Energy, which is expected to have 60 mtpa by then. Jason Feer is the Poten and Partners' business intelligence chief. He said: "Two plants are already operational and a third plant is close to FID. Venture Global was able to surpass its competitors in terms of size by building components in factories outside of the U.S., and then assembling them in record time on its U.S.-based sites, Feer explained. The U.S. has become the top LNG exporter in the world due to the rapid growth of LNG production over the last few years. Production Higher Than Expected Mike Sabel, CEO of Venture Global, said in a recent earnings call that the company has been able produce more than they initially anticipated. The company originally expected to produce 10 million tons per annum at its first facility, Calcasieu Pass. It is currently ramping up at Plaquemines and in the process commissioning. The company has revised these capacities to 12 mtpa for Calcasieu Pass, and to 26.5 mtpa for Plaquemines. Sabel stated on the earnings call that "since we started ramping Plaquemines...the plant is producing significantly more than what our upper expectations were for production capacity...the 1400% we've talked about." The CP2 was originally proposed as 20 mtpa. However, the company increased that to 28 mtpa. Cheniere's position would be narrowly maintained without this increase in size at least until 2026. Cheniere has not responded to any questions regarding its potential loss of status as the United States' largest LNG producer. Venture Global made billions by trading LNG cargoes at the spot market for long periods of time, rather than selling it on long-term contracts with lower liquefaction charges. Calcasieu Pass was the first of its plants to begin commercial operations in April. The company received criticism from Shell, BP, and Repsol for this. The company, however, has decided to seek out long-term contracts in order to secure some of the extra LNG production of approximately 15 mtpa. Sabel said in the earnings call that they were excited to be able to sign more contracts for 20 years than originally planned. Shaylyn Hines, spokesperson for Venture Global, said that the company would also be offering shorter-term quantities. Reporting by Curtis Williams, Houston; editing by Jamie Freed
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MOL Hungary and MVM combine forces to ship Azeri crude oil to Central Europe
MOL, the Hungarian oil-and-gas group, and MVM, the state-owned energy firm in Slovakia will charter tankers together to transport up to 160,000 tons of crude oil per year from Azerbaijan. This move is intended to diversify Hungary's and Slovakia's energy supply. Both companies will transport crude oil via the Baku, Tbilisi, Ceyhan (BTC), to the Ceyhan Terminal in Turkey, where it will then be distributed among MOL Group markets with an emphasis on Hungary and Slovakia. The companies stated that through this collaboration, MOL can increase the volume alternative crude oil processed at its refineries up to 160.000 tons per annum. MOL already imports one tanker of Azeri oil per month. This would be equivalent to two tanker shipments a year. MOL bought Chevron's stake in the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) oilfield in the Caspian Sea in 2020 and MVM announced last year that it would buy a 5% stake in Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field. MOL's two refineries in Slovakia, Hungary and the Ukraine are fed by Russian crude oil via the southern spur of Druzhba Pipeline. However, MOL is investing in technologies to move away from Urals Oil. MOL stated last year that progress had been slower than expected. It added that MOL can refine up 30-40% non Russian crude at its refineries located in Slovakia and Hungary. This could increase to 100% by 2026 if investments are made.
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CK Hutchison confirms Aponte’s MSC as main investor in port deal
CK Hutchison announced on Thursday that the family-run MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, owned by Italian billionaire Gianluigi Apponte, is the largest investor in a consortium seeking to purchase 43 ports from a Hong Kong conglomerate. Dominic Lai, Hutchison's co-managing Director, spoke at the annual general meeting of the company after weeks of criticism and scrutiny in China over its proposal to sell a majority of its global ports business worth $22.8 billion to a U.S. investment group led by BlackRock. Lai replied: "Yes. It has been since the beginning." CK Hutchison did not disclose the exact ownership of the investors in the consortium. MSC didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment about Lai’s remarks. In a period of increasing U.S. China trade tensions, the sale of assets that would include two strategically important Panama Canal ports has become highly polarised. In April, China’s top market regulator stated that it was closely monitoring CK Hutchison’s planned sale. It also said that the parties to the transaction should not attempt to avoid an antitrust investigation. CK Hutchison - controlled by Li Ka-shing tycoon – said in a statement this month that all compliance standards would be strictly followed. The sale proposal has also attracted the attention of U.S. president Donald Trump who has expressed repeatedly his desire to reduce Chinese influences around the Panama Canal. He has called the deal "reclaiming" the waterway.
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New German Chancellery Chief calls for stronger Russia sanctions
Thorsten Frei is the chief of staff to Germany's new chancellor. He said that Europe must step "outside its comfort zone" in order to consider more severe sanctions against Russia. These could include a ban on uranium or gas, or tapping into frozen Russian assets. The EU and Britain have announced new sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. They are focusing on the "shadow fleet" (oil tankers and financial companies) that has helped Moscow avoid other sanctions. Frei told an interviewer in his new office at the Chancellery that the next round of EU sanction measures, which are currently being prepared, must be tough, and include even some measures which could impact on other EU countries. The conservative politician stated that "we must leave our comfort zones and take measures which go well beyond the status quo." Frei responded that these are the types of measures that will really hurt Russia and achieve the effect we intend with sanctions. Frei also endorsed the calls for sanctions against the Nord Stream Gas pipeline that runs through the Baltic Sea. Friedrich Merz, the new German Chancellor who assumed office in this month, announced last week that Germany and its allies will take legal action to seize frozen Russian assets, if possible. Merz stated that discussions about sanctions against Russian energy were ongoing. The tone in Berlin appears to be getting harder after Russian President Vladimir Putin refused Europe's request for a ceasefire. "I strongly endorse going down this road because we have seen that Russia only accepts and acknowledges language in a clear manner." Playing for Time Frei said that Putin had no intention to seek peace, noting that Russia's attacks continued unabated and even intensified during the peace talks with Ukraine last week in Istanbul. Frei, a journalist from Frei, said that the Russian leader was "playing for time". Putin said that he wants to create military fact on the ground and clearly expects his war goals to be achieved militarily. "These aren't exactly the best circumstances for a rapid peace." Frei said that he couldn't rule out that Germany could increase its military assistance for Ukraine beyond the EUR7 billion ($8billion) projected in the budget draft for this year. He did not specify by how much this aid could increase.
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Maguire: Solar is Germany's leading electricity source for April
Solar farms will dominate the power sector in Germany for the longest period of time ever after becoming the largest source of generation in the country. According to LSEG data, solar farms produced more electricity than any other source in April. This was a full month earlier than in 2024, when solar farms were the primary source of power in the country from May through August. Solar farms would power Europe's biggest economy for five months straight if they remain the largest source of energy through August. Fossil fuels would only play a secondary role. Germany's total electricity needs are expected to fall in summer, as the heating demand drops. The share of clean energy in the mix of generation could reach record levels - furthering the energy transition in this influential country. SOLAR'S SWELL The approximately 11,920 gigawatt-hours (GWh) generated by Germany's utility scale solar farms in April 2023 was 31% more than the power generated in the same month of 2024 and nearly 60% higher than in April 2023. LSEG data show that the total generation of solar farms in Germany also exceeded 10,600 GWh by Germany's coal-fired plants and 9,634 GWh by wind farms. This helped to cement solar as a major power source for spring and summer. According to Ember, the energy think-tank, the key to solar expansion is a 90% increase in solar generation capacity from 2019. By 2024 there will be 90 gigawatts in utility-scale solar power in place across the country. Solar power capacity has increased by 43 GW since 2019. This is a far greater increase than other energy sources. The German solar capacity is expected to increase by 20 % just in the next few years, after 15 GW were added last year. This larger footprint helped boost solar's share in the mix of generation to new heights. The 32% share recorded in April was up from the 23% in the same month 2024. Solar's share in the mix of generation will continue to break records in the months ahead. The record of 35%, set in July last year, is a realistic target for next month. COAL BATTERY BUFFER AND COAL BATTERY CAP Solar farms can only produce power in daylight hours, so power companies must have other sources of generation ready to meet system demands. In 2025, coal power plants are the main alternative for renewable energy in the country. The coal-fired electricity generation has risen by 44% in the first four month of 2025 compared to the same period in the year 2024. The gas-fired generation of power also increased sharply from January to the end of April, by 26% compared to the previous year. This was to compensate for a severe shortfall in German wind farm output which fell by 31% between January and April 2024. The coal- and gas-fired power plants in Germany will continue to play a major role during the summer months, particularly in the evenings when solar production drops. Even if solar production ceases, the rapid expansion of utility-scale batteries will likely cap fossil fuel generation in this summer. According to SolarPower Europe a regional renewable energies association, Germany's utilities have added just under 6 GWh in battery storage systems each of the last two years. The largest battery base in Europe will allow utilities store excess solar power generated during the day and discharge it during peak evening consumption. Batteries will also help to reduce the amount of fossil fuels needed, allowing Germany's energy system to make the most of its solar resources. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
EasyJet, the UK airline, is confident about summer travel demand
EasyJet, a British airline, said that it is seeing a strong demand for flights, holidays and summer bookings, which are ahead of the previous year. It believes it will meet consensus estimates for its annual profit.
EasyJet's pretax loss for the six-month period ending March, the quieter off-season of the company, was 394 million pounds (529 million dollars), which is in line with the expectations and better than last year, when adjusted to account for Easter falling later this year.
EasyJet has said that it is seeing "positive build" in demand both for its flights and for its rapidly growing holidays business. This puts it on track to reach its forecasts of 703 million pounds pretax profit for this year, and its medium-term goal of 1 billion pounds.
The airline's optimistic outlook is in line with that of its larger competitor Ryanair. On Monday, the airline reported strong summer bookings, which were 1% higher than last year.
TUI, Europe's largest tour operator, had warned in May that bookings for summer 2025 will be difficult and highlighted uncertainty in Germany, the company's biggest market.
EasyJet is present in all of Europe but Britain remains its largest market.
(source: Reuters)