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Transatlantic airfares plummet as Western Europeans avoid US travel

The United States to Europe airfares have fallen to levels not seen before the pandemic. Travelers from Western Europe are leading a decline in travel to America that is expected continue until at least July. According to preliminary data released by the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, overseas arrivals in the United States decreased 2.8% from a year earlier in May. Travel from Western Europe dropped 4.4% in may, while travel from Eastern Europe increased 4.6% during the same period.

According to OAG Aviation (an analytics firm), forward bookings indicate that a sustained decline is on the horizon. Total inbound bookings in the U.S. for July were down 13% compared to last year.

Transatlantic airfares have been falling since the first quarter, when Europeans began reconsidering their travel plans to the U.S., after President Donald Trump suggested that Greenland be annexed, launched a trade war and issued orders focusing on a stricter border policy. Some trips have also been affected by a stronger dollar.

According to the NTTO, in March, travel from Western Europe dropped 17% compared to last year.

According to Cirium, a firm that provides aviation analytics, the average round-trip economy airfares on over 50 routes between the U.S. and Europe were down 7% in the first quarter compared to the previous year. The rates for flights between Atlanta, Georgia and London dropped by 55%.

The decline in demand for travel from Europe has also contributed to lower prices, as American consumers are bargain-hunting to save money and wait to finalize their travel plans closer to departure dates.

Aran Ryan is the director of Industry Studies at Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics subsidiary. He said that 2025 will be a difficult year for transatlantic routes to earn money.

The price of roundtrip tickets to Europe from the U.S. is 10% lower this summer than it was a year earlier, according to travel booking app Hopper. The average ticket price of $817 is in line with the prices in Europe during the summer of 2019, before the pandemic. Air France KLM, Lufthansa and other major carriers expect a slowdown in activity. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr stated that the company anticipates weaker demand for the third quarter. Air France KLM's CEO Ben Smith also said they are seeing a slight pullback in traffic on transatlantic flights and will cut prices to fill cabins.

Airlines such as Lufthansa, and United Airlines in the United States say that the increased demand for travel from Americans to Europe offsets the decrease of Europeans traveling the opposite way. United Airlines said that international bookings to Europe dropped 6% during the first quarter. However, demand from the U.S. offset the decline. Delta Air Lines, a rival airline, said that 80% of their long-haul demand comes from the U.S. and fares are significantly higher in this region than elsewhere.

Lufthansa plans to increase its marketing of transatlantic flights in the United States due to increased demand. This is despite a slight recovery for travel from Western Europe. According to data from NTTO, travel from Western Europe to the U.S. grew 12.1% in April and then fell again in May.

Hopper said that as of mid-May there were 4.3% more flights departing from U.S. international airports to international destinations for this summer.

American Airlines' CFO Devon May told a Wolfe Research conference on transportation and industry in May that he felt "really good" about the transatlantic markets.

(source: Reuters)