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INDIA RUPEE - Rangebound patterns tighten the rupee's relationship with Indian stocks
Investor sentiment has been clouded by a combination of muted portfolio flows and lingering uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs. The rupee's 30-day index correlation with the Nifty 50 benchmark has risen to 0.66. This is the highest level seen since mid-May. It shows that the currency is more sensitive to movements in local stocks. The Nifty 50 fell by 0.6% on the day. Meanwhile, the rupee dropped to 86.2025 U.S. dollars per rupee as of 10:50 am IST. This is a 0.1% drop. Losses in financial stocks led to a divergence between local and regional equities. Asian currencies were mixed, while the dollar index remained unchanged at 98.5. The rupee's implied volatility for the next month has fallen to a low of just over 4%, and the India VIX stock volatility index has dropped to 11.6 from 14 a few months ago. A trader from a state-run banking institution noted that foreign portfolio flows have been muted as well, which has contributed to the rangebound price movement. Apurva Swarup is a vice president of Shinhan Bank India. She said that both the local equity markets and the FX market are "lacking a clear direction at the moment", referring to rangebound movements. Swarup said that news on the U.S. India trade deal is important to monitor, as it may push the stock market and the rupee out of the ranges they are currently in. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said this week that the United States was very close to reaching a deal with India. The reciprocal tariffs on exports from each country to the U.S. will be implemented starting August 1. Dollar bids by foreign and local banks on the day weighed heavily on the rupee. Traders also pointed to an increased demand to purchase dollars at the daily benchmark rate.
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Oil prices remain unchanged as Iraqi outages and tariff concerns clash.
The oil price was little changed Friday, despite the fact that it had risen in the previous session. This is due to fears of a possible decline in demand amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies and concerns about drone attacks on northern Iraqi fields. Brent crude futures fell 4 cents or 0.06% to $69.48 a barrel as of 0239 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures were down 3 cents or 0.04% to $67.51 a barrel. Prices rose $1 on both contracts on Thursday after four days of drone strikes on oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan, which shut down half the region's production. The market has also been buoyed by seasonal travel demand. JPMorgan analysts stated that in the first two week of July, the global oil demand averaged 105.2 millions barrels per daily (bpd), an increase of 600,000 bpd compared to a year ago and in line with expectations. The market is still impacted by the uncertainty surrounding the final U.S. Tariff Policy, which it appears will not be resolved until after August 1. This is in addition to plans from major oil producers that they will remove their production cuts, increasing supply when the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere ends. Brent and WTI have both fallen over 1% this week. In a recent note, ING analysts stated that "near-term fundamentals of oil remain supportive." The market is expected to remain tight for the remainder of this quarter before improving in the final three months. Two energy officials reported that the oil output in semi-autonomous Kurdistan has been reduced by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels a day. This is more than half of the region's usual output of 280,000 bpd. Although no group has claimed responsibility, officials have pointed to Iran-backed groups as likely sources of the attacks on oilfields this week in Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraq's Federal Government announced on Thursday, despite the attack, that Iraqi Kurdistan would resume oil exports via a pipeline into Turkey after a 2-year halt.
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What is the fuel switch at the heart of the Air India crash investigation?
Sources briefed by U.S. officials on their early assessment of the evidence said that a cockpit recording of the dialogue between the two Air India pilots that led to the crash last month confirms that the captain stopped the fuel flow to the plane's engine. Here are some facts about the engine fuel switches. They describe their function in the aircraft, and how they moved on an Air India flight. What are fuel switches? These switches regulate the fuel flow to a plane's engine. Pilots use them to shut down engines or start engines manually on the ground. Experts in aviation say that a pilot could not accidentally move fuel switches feeding the engines. If moved, however, it would immediately cut off the engine's power. According to John Cox, an aviation safety expert from the United States, there are separate power systems and wirings for the fuel shutoff switches and fuel valves that they control. Where are the fuel switches located? The fuel control switches are located under the thrust levers on a Boeing 787-8, which is equipped with two GE engine in Air India's instance. The switches have a spring loaded mechanism that keeps them in place. The pilot must first lift the switch and then change it from cutoff to run. There are two different modes: 'CUTOFF" and "RUN". What happened on the fatal AIR INDIA flight? According to the flight recording, after a few seconds of takeoff, both switches were switched from "RUN" to "CUTOFF", one after the other, with a one-second time difference. The engines started to lose power as a result. On the cockpit voice recording, one pilot is heard asking the other pilot why he has cut off the fuel. The report stated that "the other pilot replied that he had not done so." The report failed to identify the remarks made by the captain of the flight and those by the first officer. Sources briefed about U.S. officials early assessment said that the first officer, who was in control of the 787 at the time, asked the captain to explain why he had moved the fuel switches so that they starved the engine of fuel. He then requested that the captain restore fuel flow. According to the preliminary report both switches were in the "RUN" position and found at the crash scene. The report stated that when fuel control switches from 'CUTOFF to RUN' are moved while the aircraft is flying, the control system of each engine automatically manages a sequence for relighting and restoring thrust, including ignition and fuel injection. John Nance, an aviation safety expert from the United States, said that "no sane person would turn off those switches in flight", especially when the plane was just beginning to climb. (Reporting from Abhijith Gaapavaram, New Delhi; Dan Catchpole, Seattle; editing by Jamie Freed).
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Air India's Boeing Dreamliner crash: Inside the cockpit
Sources briefed by U.S. officials on their early assessment of the evidence said that a cockpit recording of the dialogue between the two Air India pilots that led to the crash last month confirms that the captain stopped the fuel flow to the plane's engine. The sequence of events on June 12 is detailed in the preliminary investigation report by Indian investigators, released on July 12. Air India Dreamliner VTANB landed at Ahmedabad as AI423 at 05:47 GMT. 07:48 GMT - An aircraft was observed leaving Bay 34 of the airport. 07:55 GMT - Air traffic control granted the taxi clearance to the aircraft. A minute later, the aircraft taxiied from the bay via TaxiwayR4 and backtracked before lining up for takeoff. 08:02 GMT - The aircraft has been transferred from tower to ground control. Take-off clearance has been issued at 08:07 GMT. The aircraft began rolling at 08:07 GMT. Aircraft lifted off at 08:08 GMT. The report stated that "the aircraft air/ground sensor switched to air mode in accordance with liftoff." Aircraft reaches maximum airspeed of 180 knots at 08:08 GMT. "Immediately after, the Engine 1 fuel cutoff switch and Engine 2 fuel shutoff switch transitioned one by one from RUN to CUTOFF with a gap of 1 sec." The Engine N1 and N2 started to degrade from their takeoff values when the fuel supply was cut off. In the cockpit recording, one pilot is heard asking another why he cut off. "The other pilot replied that he didn't do it." The airport's CCTV footage shows that Ram Air Turbines (RATs) are deployed immediately after take-off during the initial climb. The aircraft began to lose height before crossing the perimeter wall of the airport. The RAT hydraulic pump started supplying power at 08:08 GMT. The fuel cutoff switch for Engine 1 has been changed from CUTOFF (stop) to RUN (run). The fuel cutoff switch for Engine 2 also changes from CUTOFF (stop) to RUN at 08:08 PM GMT. When fuel control switches from CUTOFF are changed to RUN during flight, the full authority dual engine controls (FADECs) of each engine automatically manage a relighting and thrust recovery sequence. Engine 1's core speed deceleration halted, reversed, and began to recover. Engine 2 could relight, but it was unable to stop core speed deceleration. Fuel was repeatedly added to the engine to increase core acceleration and recovery. The pilot who sent "MAYDAY Mayday Mayday" at 08:09 GMT. 08:09 GMT - Data recording has stopped. (Reporting by Aditya Kalra; Editing by Jamie Freed) 08:14.44 GMT - Crash Fire tender leaves the airport premises to rescue and fight fires. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Aditya Klra)
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What were the names of the two pilots that flew the Air India jet which crashed?
Sources briefed by U.S. officials on their early assessment of the evidence said that a cockpit recording of dialogue between two pilots of an Air India flight which crashed last month confirms that the captain stopped the fuel flow to the plane's engine. Here is a short profile of both pilots, based on media reports and the preliminary investigation report: CAPTAIN SUMEET SABHARWAL The 56-year old pilot had a valid airline transport pilot's license until May 14, 2026. He was cleared to fly in the role of pilot-in command on several aircraft, including the Boeing 787, 777 and Airbus A310. He has accumulated a total of 15,638 flying hours. Of these, 8,596 were spent on a Boeing 7. According to a report in the Times of India, Sabharwal called his family at the airport and assured them that he would call again once he landed in London. He was described as a gentleman by a pilot who briefly spoke with him. FIRST OFFICER CLIVE KUNDER The 32-year old had a commercial license that was issued in the year 2020 and was valid until 26 September 2025. He was cleared to fly the Cessna 172, Piper PA-34 Seneca and Airbus A320 as well as Boeing 787 as a co-pilot. His total flying time was 3,403 hrs. One-hundred and twenty eight hours were spent as a copilot on a 787. Indian media, citing his family, reported that Kunder has been a passionate flyer since his school days. In 2012, he began working as a pilot. He joined Air India as a pilot in 2017. Reporting by Abhijith and Adityakalra, editing by Jamie Freed
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The key events of the Air India crash investigation
Sources briefed by U.S. officials on their early assessment of the evidence said that a cockpit recording of dialogue between two pilots of an Air India flight which crashed last month confirms that the captain stopped the fuel flow to the plane's engine. The timeline below shows the key events of the investigation so far: JUNE 12 Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner headed for London crashed shortly after takeoff in Ahmedabad, killing all 242 passengers on board except one. JUNE 13 India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau launches an investigation in the deadliest aircraft crash of the past decade. The team includes an aviation medicine expert, an air traffic controller, and representatives of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board. Boeing 787 jets are equipped with two GE recorders. One is installed in the front of the jet and the other at the back. Both aircraft have a cockpit data recorder as well as a voice recorder. A black box is recovered on the roof of a nearby building. JUNE 16 The second blackbox unit was recovered from the debris on the crash site. JUNE 24 Indian Air Force aircraft transported the two black boxes separately from Ahmedabad, India to an AAIB laboratory in Delhi. The team, led by the AAIB Director General and technical members of AAIB and NTSB, began the data extraction in the evening. JUNE 25 The data from the memory module of the black box unit at the front end of the aircraft was successfully downloaded. If the power source of the aircraft is lost, the forward recorder has an independent power supply which provides power for the device for approximately 10 minutes. JULY 12 The preliminary report of Indian investigators indicated that there was no recommendation to Boeing or GE for this stage. This indicates a fault with the aircraft or engine is unlikely. The report said that one pilot could be heard asking the other pilot on the cockpit recording why he had cut off the gas. The report stated that "the other pilot replied that he had not done so." The crash report did not specify which flight captain made the remarks and which first officer. Nor did it identify which pilot sent out "Mayday Mayday Mayday" before the crash. Within a year after the crash, a final report will be expected. JULY 16 The Wall Street Journal reported that the first officer who was piloting the plane asked the captain, who had more experience, why he put the fuel switches in the "cutoff position" seconds after the plane lifted off the runway. JULY 17 In a press release, the AAIB stated that "certain sections in international media have repeatedly attempted to draw conclusions by using selective and unverified reports." The AAIB added that the investigation is ongoing and it's too early to make definitive conclusions. A spokesperson for the board said that the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board was assisting in the Air India investigation, and its chair Jennifer Homendy had been fully briefed about all aspects. The spokesperson said that this included the cockpit voice recordings and the details from the flight recorder, which the NTSB helped the AAIB to read out. Reporting by Abhijith Ganahapavaram, New Delhi. Editing by Jamie Freed
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WSJ reports that Union Pacific is exploring a deal to purchase Norfolk Southern.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Union Pacific was looking at a deal with rival Norfolk Southern. This merger could be a game changer for the industry and attract intense regulatory scrutiny. Norfolk's shares grew 4% in extended trade. The Journal, citing sources familiar with the situation, said that the talks were in an early stage, and there was no guarantee they would lead to a deal or regulatory approval. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern have not responded to comments immediately. The acquisition could create a railroad titan with a combined value of around $200 billion. This would further consolidate an industry which has shrunk over the last several decades from dozens to a few major carriers. Semafor had reported that Morgan Stanley and Union Pacific were exploring the possibility of an acquisition by a competitor. Could not confirm immediately either report. Surface Transportation Board, a regulatory agency that oversees railroads, would have to approve a deal of this magnitude. The deal would also need to be supported by the unions of workers. The STB approved Canadian Pacific’s $31 billion purchase of Kansas City Southern by 2023, with multiple conditions. This was the most stringent regulatory oversight ever placed on a major rail merger. (Reporting and editing by Devika Syamnath in Bengaluru)
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record levels as earnings, data point to consumer strength
Investors praised strong economic data, and earnings reports showed that American consumers were willing to spend. Six of the last seven Nasdaq sessions ended with a record-high, while the S&P 500 had six top finishes since June 27, Preliminary data shows that the S&P 500 rose 35.32 points or 0.56% to 6,299.02, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 157.25 or 0.76% to 20,887.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 247.64, or 0.56% to 44,502.42. Wall Street is on a good run after it fell in early April following President Donald Trump’s announcements about Liberation Day tariffs. The week of April 8th was seen as the test for these gains, with several key economic reports being released and the beginning of second quarter earnings season. The economic data and earnings reports of corporations "show that the economy is still very solid and therefore markets were able to grind up this week, with some data supporting where we're going," said Anthony Saglimbene. Chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. Data released on Thursday showed that U.S. retails sales rebounded sharply in the month of June. Investors saw renewed consumer confidence and economic momentum after mixed inflation data that showed both a stalling of producer prices and an increase in consumer inflation during the same month. Investors are watching to see if Trump's tariff policy is starting to affect the U.S. economic system. Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they will not cut interest rates until they can assess the inflationary effects of higher import taxes. Adriana Kugler of the Fed said that rate cuts will be on hold until Trump's tariffs start to increase consumer prices. According to CME's FedWatch, traders now place the odds at just over 54% for a rate cut in September. A move in July is almost ruled out. Positive comments from companies that cater to American consumers accompanied the strong retail sales. PepsiCo's stock jumped following a forecast of positive results. Demand for energy drinks, and healthier sodas helped offset concerns over a decline in core profit. United Airlines has gained since the carrier forecast stronger demand in early July. This is a rare positive sign for an industry that's been strained by Trump budget cuts and trade tensions. Delta Airlines and American Airlines are also climbing. The technology stocks, and in particular U.S. chipsmakers, were also boosted after TSMC posted a record quarter profit. The company, which is the world's largest producer of AI chips, said that demand for artificial intelligence has been increasing. TSMC shares listed in the U.S. as well as Marvell and Nvidia gained. Ameriprise's Saglimbene says the TSMC earnings explosion bodes well for chipmakers as well as the technology sector. "Before the Big Tech earnings are released in the next two weeks, the sole source of production for those chips (AI) is stating that their demand is extremely high. The set-up is positive for Big Tech, and that's why technology is dominating the news today," he said. (Reporting from Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru, Nikhil Sharma and David French in New York. Editing by Maju Sam and David Gregorio.
Trump nominates former Delta pilot for international aviation post
The White House announced on Thursday that President Donald Trump has nominated former Delta Air Lines captain Jeffrey Anderson as the U.S. Ambassador to the International Civil Aviation Organization. This move was opposed by the largest airline pilots union.
This nomination comes at a time when some U.S. Senators are calling on the Trump Administration to lobby the Montreal-based U.N. Civil Aviation body to raise the mandatory retirement age of airline pilots to 67.
Since July 2022, when C.B. The pilot "Sully Sullenberger" who successfully landed an Airbus A320 in New York's Hudson River after hitting a flock geese in 2009 stepped down.
The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), a union that represents over 79,000 pilots in 42 U.S. airlines and Canadian carriers, has criticized Trump’s nomination of Anderson. They have called him unqualified.
The union stated that "it appears that Mr. Anderson’s only qualification for the position is his support for a position that would make the United States an outlier in global aviation and cause chaos in pilot labor and international and domestic flights operations."
Congress rejected last year a proposal to raise the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots from 65 to 67.
In a press release, the White House defended Anderson’s nomination. It noted that he is a decorated veteran Naval aviator who has decades of experience in aviation safety as a Delta pilot and ALPA negotiator.
ICAO is a major player in aviation safety worldwide.
ICAO is a non-policing organization that uses consensus to establish standards for everything from seat belts to runways. The agency was formed after the United States invited over 50 allies in 1944 to agree on a common system of air navigation.
The 193-nation organization will hold its triennial meeting from September 23 through October 3, this year. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Jamie Freed, and David Shepardson)
(source: Reuters)