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Oil dips as OPEC+ plan stokes supply-surplus concerns
The oil prices dropped on Tuesday, as another OPEC+ production increase was anticipated. Also, the resumption in the Kurdistan region of Iraq via Turkey has reinforced the prospect for a looming surplus. Brent crude futures expiring Tuesday fell by 54 cents or 0.8% to $67.43 per barrel at 0320 GMT. The December contract, which is the more active, was down by 53 cents or 0.8% at $66.56 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $62.95 per barrel, down by 50 cents or 0.8%. These drops are a continuation of Monday's drop when Brent and WTI both settled over 3% lower, after recording their biggest daily declines since 1 August 2025. In a note sent to clients, IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted that oil's fall came after Iraq's Kurdistan Region resumed crude exports on the weekend. He also wrote that reports indicate OPEC+ will likely approve an increase in November production at its meeting this coming weekend. Three sources with knowledge of the discussions said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, are likely to approve a further increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barallons per day during a Sunday meeting. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said that "even though (OPEC+) is under their quota in any case, the market does not like the fact more oil is coming into the country." Iraq's oil minister said that crude oil began flowing through the pipeline on Saturday for the first time since 2-1/2 years after an interim agreement broke the deadlock. In recent weeks the market has been cautious, as it balances supply risks, which are mainly caused by drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries with concerns about oversupply and low demand. In a Tuesday note, ANZ analysts said that the possibility of a U.S. shutdown had raised concerns about demand. A U.S. shutdown of the government could affect a range of services, and also delay the release economic data, such as the payroll report scheduled for Friday, which is vital to the Federal Reserve's policy-making decisions. Hamas, on the other hand, remained uncertain about its position. Reporting by Anjana Anil and Emily Chow, both in Singapore. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman.
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Shell CEO: LNG will be Shell's biggest contribution to the energy industry in the next decade
Wael Sawan, the CEO of Shell Europe, said that liquefied natural gases (LNG) would be the biggest contribution in value to the energy sector over the next ten years as the company aims to reduce emissions from fossil fuels production. Since taking over as CEO of Shell in January 2023 Sawan has increased Shell’s focus on natural gases to improve its financial performance compared to its peers in Europe, the U.S., and elsewhere. He has also shifted away from renewables, pulling out of several wind, solar, and other low carbon ventures. Sawan believes that LNG can be a very effective fuel in the fight to reduce global emissions, as it can replace coal for countries like India, China, and other Asian nations. He predicts that the demand for super-cooled fuel will grow by 60% between now, and 2040. By then, LNG sales are expected to account for about 20% of all global natural gas, up from 13% currently. Sawan, at an Economic Club of New York meeting, said, "We are totally committed to this sector." The company is planning a number of LNG-related projects in Abu Dhabi and Nigeria, among other places. Sawan, who visited Vancouver last week to celebrate the company’s LNG Canada facility said that the company still has to weigh a few factors prior making a decision about a second stage of the project. The expansion was included in a list of major nation-building initiatives that the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney wanted expedited. This is the first major LNG facility on the West Coast of North America and Canada. Sawan noted that the government had provided strong support both at the national and provincial levels. Everyone is very interested in seeing that project come to fruition. Shell will still need to analyze the market before making a final decision, particularly as the U.S. market is expected grow massively in the next few years. He said: "The number final investment decisions taken is surprising to me, because they are at the high end of the cost spectrum." "So, it's not fully rational from an economic standpoint." "We need to know when to increase capacity," he said. (Reporting from Shariq Khan, New York; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus.
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Boeing starts early work on 737 MAX Replacement, WSJ Reports
The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported that Boeing is currently in the early stages developing a single-aisle aircraft to eventually replace the 737 MAX. According to the WSJ, Kelly Ortberg, the CEO of the company, met with Rolls-Royce Holdings officials in the UK earlier this year to discuss a possible new engine for their aircraft. The report stated that the U.S. aircraft manufacturer has also designed the flight deck for a new narrow body aircraft. It added that the development is still in its early planning stages, and final decisions have yet to be taken. Could not confirm the report immediately. Boeing and Rolls-Royce didn't immediately respond to an'inquiry for comment. The 737 MAX was introduced in 2017 but grounded worldwide in 2019 after two fatal crashes.
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Oil prices fall as OPEC+ plans further increases in output
The oil prices dropped on Tuesday, as OPEC+ increased production and resumed exports of Iraqi Kurdistan via Turkey. This reinforced the view that a supply surplus is imminent. Brent crude futures expiring Tuesday fell by 47 cents or 0.69% to $67.50 per barrel at 0012 GMT. The contract for December, which is the most active, was down 43 cents or 0.64% at $66.66 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $63.05 per barrel, down by 40 cents or 0.63%. These drops are a continuation of Monday's decline when Brent and WTI both settled over 3% lower, after recording their steepest daily losses since August 1, 2025. In a note sent to clients, IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted that oil's fall came after Iraq's Kurdistan Region resumed crude exports on the weekend. He also wrote that reports indicate OPEC+ will likely approve an increase in November production at its meeting this coming weekend. Three sources with knowledge of the discussions said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, are likely to approve a further increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barallons per day during a Sunday meeting. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said that "even though (OPEC+) is under their quota in any case, the market does not like the fact more oil is coming into the country." Iraq's oil minister said that crude oil began flowing through the pipeline on Saturday for the first time since 2-1/2 years after a deal was reached to break a deadlock. In recent weeks the market has been cautious, as it balances supply risks, which are mainly caused by drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian refineries with concerns about oversupply and low demand. Hamas, meanwhile, remained unsure about its position. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
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ShipMatrix predicts that US holiday package delivery will increase by 5% in 2024.
A forecast released on Monday shows that U.S. shipping companies will handle 2.3 billion parcels this holiday season. This is 5% more than the previous year. An extra shopping day has helped offset President Donald Trump's tax policies. Investors want to know about the holiday season, which runs from Thanksgiving through Christmas. Companies like FedEx or UPS can deliver up to twice as many packages some days. ShipMatrix, a logistics technology provider, said Monday that the expected increase in holiday delivery will not be distributed equally among companies. This could lead to a greater pushback from customers on "peak surcharges", which are meant to protect carriers' profits against higher costs during the holiday season. FedEx and Amazon.com's logistics divisions saw their domestic parcel volumes increase by 5% and 6.1% respectively in the first half 2025. UPS's volume, which has been reducing the number of Amazon packages that it delivers, fell by 5.4%. The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) fell 6.7%, ShipMatrix said. Report: The combined volume drop at UPS and USPS was greater than the increase by Amazon and FedEx. This additional volume, 102,000,000 packages, was probably handled by private delivery networks for large retailers such as Walmart, or other carriers. ShipMatrix said that if current trends continue into the holiday season "we expect FedEx, Amazon and USPS to see a 5-8 percent increase while UPS and USPS will remain flat." The demand for delivery has been dampened by the higher prices in the U.S. for goods that are tied to Trump's new tariffs, as well as a reduction of duty exemptions on low-value products sold through China-linked retailers such as Temu and Shein. FedEx and UPS are seeing a decline in volumes since Trump ended the exemption from import duties for low-value goods that were sold directly to consumers by China and Hong Kong, on May 2, and the rest of world on August 29, 2017. In the last year, 1.4 billion packages were imported into the United States using the "de minimis exemption" for goods worth less than $800. Trump's tariff policy, which is constantly changing, has also dampened business spending in the United States and caused consumers to be wary of rising prices. Consumers, who spend two-thirds or more of their income, are particularly concerned about this. (Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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Airlines warn that the US Government shutdown could affect flights
U.S. Airlines warned Monday that a partial shutdown of the federal government could slow down flights and strain American aviation, since air traffic controllers would have to work without being paid and other functions will be stopped. Airlines for America, the airline trade group that represents United Airlines as well as Delta Air Lines and American Airlines, has warned of the potential impact on travelers if funding is cut. Washington's political disagreement over funding has led to the latest possible collateral damage, namely the warning against air travel. The group stated that "when federal employees who manage and inspect aircraft, and secure the aviation system of our nation are furloughed, or working without pay for months, millions of Americans and the industry feel the strain." During a 35-day government shutdown in 2019, the number of controllers and TSA agents absent increased as they missed paychecks. This led to longer waits at checkpoints. The FAA had to slow down air traffic in New York to put pressure on legislators to end the standoff. If Democrats and Republicans cannot reach an agreement on a bill to fund the government, then the shutdown will begin on Wednesday. The Democratic congressional leaders who met with President Donald Trump Monday did not reach a deal. The FAA is forced to suspend pilot check-ride flights, airworthiness inspections of aircraft, and defer maintenance and repair of critical air traffic equipment when shutdowns occur. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association also said that hundreds of air traffic training trainees at the FAA Academy, located in Oklahoma City, could be furloughed. "This would cause significant delays in the pipeline for training and worsen the current air traffic controller shortage," it stated. About 3,800 FAA controllers are short of the targeted staffing levels.
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Investors brush aside government shutdown concerns to boost the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both closed slightly higher on Monday, as investors purchased heavyweight technology shares and shrugged aside the uncertainty surrounding a possible U.S. Government shutdown and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve Official. Investors bet on artificial intelligence's growth and expected that the Fed would continue to cut interest rates in order to combat persistent inflation and labor uncertainty. Wall Street has been focusing on a funding standoff between Republicans, and Democrats, which could lead to a shutdown of the government beginning Wednesday. This is the first day of fiscal year 2026 for the U.S. Lindsey Bell is the chief strategist of 248 Ventures, based in Charlotte, North Carolina. She said that even though the Labor Department was preparing for a possible delay in its September jobs report if there were a shutdown, it did not appear to be the main market driver. Bell noted that investors are holding on to the positives, pointing out recent data such as housing market and consumer expenditure figures. The market will not shoot to the stars, as this is a serious risk. Investors can ignore the possibility of a shutdown because, if one occurs, it will be resolved quickly, and the market can return to focusing on things that matter, such as earnings, monetary policies, and AI investments. Burns McKinney of NFJ Investment Group, Dallas, Texas, said that while shutdowns do not tend to affect corporate results in the past, they may have limited Monday's gains and kept trading volumes low. "The only way it could move the markets would be if it affected the bottom line. McKinney said that historically, shutdowns of the government are short and don't affect profitability. Investors tend to look ahead. It's like the smoke on a racing track. "They just keep the wheels straight and manage through the stress, moving forward through the smoke." The preliminary data shows that the S&P 500 rose 17.52 points or 0.26% to 6,661.22 while the Nasdaq Composite grew 107.99 or 0.48% to 22,592.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 69.42, or 0.15% to 46,316.71. Investors also listened to Fed policymakers for any indications of concern about the possible loss of economic visibility if a shutdown occurred. Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, one of the most hawkish Fed officials this year and who has not been a policy voter, stated on Monday that the central bank must maintain a restrictive monetary policy in order to cool the inflation. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an approximately 90% chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the next Fed Meeting. The energy sector, which saw oil prices fall by more than 3% during the session, was the largest laggard of the 11 major industries sectors in the S&P 500. Nvidia, the leader in AI chips, and Microsoft were amongst the top gainers. Electronic Arts shares rose after the game publisher agreed that it would be taken private for $55 billion, boosting hopes for wider deal prospects. Bell, of 248 Ventures said the transaction was "confirmation" that the M&A marketplace is open. Shares of Lam Research rose after Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating for the chip-making company to "buy" instead of "hold." AppLovin has set a new record high and also provided one of the largest lifts to the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley increased the target price for the stock from $480 to $750. U.S. listed shares of cannabis companies rose after U.S. president Donald Trump shared on Sunday a video promoting the benefits of hemp-derived CBD. Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, and Tilray Brands all saw their shares rise. (Reporting and editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Shilpa Majumdar in Bengaluru, Niket Gupta and Sukriti in Bengaluru, and Sinead carew in New York)
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Two US Senators demand investigation of Tesla's full self-driving response at rail crossings
Two U.S. Senators urged on Monday the country's automotive safety regulator to look into reported failures by Tesla's Full Self-Driving System to detect and respond safely to railroad crossings. They cited risks of "catastrophic collisions". According to Tesla, the Full Self-Driving System allows a car to drive its occupants “almost anywhere”, handling everything from navigation, lane changes and steering to parking. However, a human must still supervise. In a letter sent to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Democratic Senators Ed Markey, and Richard Blumenthal called for an investigation. They cited the growing number of near-collisions reported. The letter was made public. "While mistakes like a missed sign or an illegal lane-change are dangerous, a mistake at a railroad crossing can cause catastrophic collisions that result in multiple fatalities involving train passengers, vehicle occupants and rail workers," wrote the senators. Tesla and NHTSA have not responded to comments immediately. The NHTSA has been investigating Tesla's Full Self-Driving System, which is more sophisticated than its Autopilot. In October 2024, the agency opened an investigation into 2.4 millions Tesla vehicles with FSD. This was after four collisions were reported in conditions of reduced visibility, such as sun glare or airborne dust. The two senators suggested that the NHTSA consider placing limitations on Tesla's usage of the system. The agency should take clear and obvious steps to protect the public. This includes limiting Tesla's FSD only to road and weather conditions that it was designed for. The NHTSA has also investigated Telsa's automated vehicle features. In January, the agency began an investigation into 2.6 millions Tesla vehicles after reports of crashes that involved a feature allowing users to remotely move their cars. NHTSA also examines Tesla's June launch of self-driving roboticaxis in Austin. In an email sent to Tesla on July 1, the agency stated that it was still reviewing its deployment and wanted Tesla to confirm if Tesla employees could remotely drive the cars.
Air Canada's labor agreement could reshape the pay of North American airline crews
The latest blow to airline compensation systems that do not pay fully for cabin crew's hours of work is a crippling strike by Air Canada Flight Attendants that halted thousands of flights due to unpaid wages and unpaid overtime. The union representing more than 10,000 Air Canada Flight Attendants announced on Tuesday that they had reached a tentative agreement to end unpaid work. Analysts believe that any gains made could have a positive impact on upcoming contract talks in North America.
According to a union representative, the agreement would pay flight attendants an hour before narrowbody jet flights and 70 minutes for larger widebody planes, at half their normal hourly rates in year one. This rate will rise to 70% by year 4.
Air Canada had previously offered to pay half the fare for 45 minutes of travel time for narrow-body jets and 60 minutes of travel time for wide-body aircraft.
The deal may also increase structural costs in an industry that is cyclical. The second largest operating cost for airlines is labor.
The four-day walkout that stranded over 500,000 passengers reflects unrest among U.S. carriers where flight attendants are not allowed to leave their jobs until the National Mediation Board gives permission. Last year, cabin crews from American, Southwest and Alaska Airlines rejected contract agreements because they didn't address their concerns over unpaid work. United Airlines flight attendants voted against a tentative labor agreement worth $6 billion last month, because it did not include compensation for the time spent on the ground prior to and after flights.
Before returning to negotiations in December, the union of Chicago's airline is conducting a survey among its members. United and the union didn't immediately respond to comments.
Cabin crews are paid for a certain number of hours. However, the majority of their compensation is given when planes are moving, ignoring important tasks such as boarding, deplaning and other ground operations.
The unions claim that this is a significant amount of unpaid work. In the past, airline workers were able to secure concessions in contract negotiations because the industry was suffering due to economic downturns and pandemics.
Flight attendants are resentful due to a rise in inflation, stagnant salaries, and an increased workload. This has fueled their demands for pay reform.
The Air Canada strike is a positive for all negotiations. "It defined the problem of unreasonable expectations for flight attendants working without pay", said Sara Nelson. She is the international president of Association of Flight Attendants - CWA, which represents over 55,000 flight attendants on 20 airlines including United.
The striking flight attendants inspire workers everywhere.
Nelson spoke to Wesley Lesosky on Monday, the head of Air Canada’s flight attendants' union, in order to coordinate positions. Representatives of both unions confirmed this.
Shanyn Elliott is an Air Canada Rouge flight hostess who said that when she began her job in 2017, she would take long-haul flights for extra money as the C$23 (16.60) per hour wage she earned did not cover living expenses.
Elliott, the head of the strike committee of Air Canada flight attendants in the Canadian Union of Public Employees, added that frequent delays following the pandemic resulted in longer working hours.
Michael Rousseau, CEO of Air Canada, said that the industry must review its compensation model. In an interview he stated that the Canadian carrier had accepted the concept for ground pay and added other airlines would likely examine their own models.
Rousseau said, "I think that the industry needs to look more closely at this in time." "We should all be open to changes."
American and Alaska compensate their attendants for the time spent boarding in their new agreements. American's flight crews are now compensated for the time between flights.
These gains were made after Delta Air Lines - whose flight attendants do not belong to a union - instituted boarding compensation for cabin staff at half their hourly wage in 2022, when they tried to organize.
COSTS ARE RISING
The cost of operating airlines would be increased if passengers were charged for time spent on the plane and for boarding.
American Airlines' new contract with flight attendants is estimated to cost an additional $4.2 billion in five years. Last month, the company blamed its underperformance on margins in part to increased labor costs.
Matthew Lee, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, estimates that the proposed wage increases at Air Canada could result in additional costs of up to C$140 millions. Air Canada's wages have increased by about 26% in the past year.
A weak passenger flow to the U.S. is a problem for the airline, as are the strained relations between Canada and America. This has led to a 40% drop in profit quarter-over-quarter.
Analysts warn that if you hold the line with costs, it could lead to industrial peace. John Gradek is a McGill University lecturer on supply networks and aviation. He said, "The movement has begun."
(source: Reuters)