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Concerns about civil aviation in Europe are raised by the presence of Russian drones over Poland.

Aviation and insurance experts say that the incursion of Russian Drones into Poland has reignited concerns about the vulnerability of European civil air transport. This is the latest disruption to airlines caused by escalating conflict in the world. Poland, backed by NATO aircraft, shot down drones early on Wednesday. This was the first time that a Western alliance member fired shots in the Russian war in Ukraine.

Airports in Warsaw Chopin, Modlin, Rzeszow, and Lublin, located in the east of Poland, were temporarily closed, before they reopened.

Since the Russian invasion of 2022, some countries bordering Ukraine have reported Russian missiles and drones occasionally entering their airspace, but on a smaller scale. They are also not known to be responsible for shooting them down.

Airline operations are burdened with higher costs and fewer options due to the proliferation of conflict zones in the world. This has also led to increased safety concerns, and disruptions for travel. Airlines are left with less route options due to the closure of airspace around Russia, Ukraine, in the Middle East, India, Pakistan and parts of Africa.

Detours increase fuel costs for airlines and prolong journey times. Eurocontrol, the 41-nation coordination organization, said that Ukraine's closed skies have contributed to increased congestion.

Many international carriers have suspended flights into the region since October 2023 due to concerns about missile and drone interference. The drone attack on Wednesday followed Israel's attempted assassination of Hamas leaders in Doha, the Qatari capital.

Airlines stocks were under pressure due to concerns about disruptions in the travel industry. EasyJet shares fell by 2.2%, their lowest level since April. Shares of British Airways' owner IAG also dropped 4.1%.

The drone incursion occurred early in the morning before most airlines began flying, so flight disruptions were limited.

Polish airline LOT redirected certain flights to the west of Poland, and stated that it expects cancellations and delays.

A spokesperson from budget airline Wizz air, which operates throughout central and eastern Europe said that its security teams had "closely" monitored the situation, and they adjusted flight schedules when airports were closed.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency stated that no advisory was required for the drone intrusion because of its temporary nature. They also added that Poland's aviation authority were able adequately to handle the incident.

A RISK TO AIRLINES AND INSURERS' EYES

Aviation analysts report that airlines are becoming increasingly cautious about the dangers posed by incursions in civilian flight zones.

"This is, I believe, a wake-up for everyone in Europe who can expect to see this more frequently," said Eric Schouten.

According to two senior sources in the aviation insurance industry, the market is closely watching events unfolding in Poland and Qatar.

One source said that if the market felt that Russian drone incursions in Polish airspace had become more frequent and deliberate or that Israeli airstrikes were likely to continue in the Middle East, this would raise serious questions for insurance companies.

LOT, Lufthansa and airBaltic didn't immediately respond to comments.

The Polish civil aviation authority, as well as the air navigation service, did not reply to a question about additional measures taken to guarantee airspace safety.

WORST CASE SCENARIO

Matthew Borie of aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions, the chief intelligence officer, stated that following the drone incident, airlines in Poland may review their risk assessment.

He said they may fly further west in Poland, away from the Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians borders. They could also operate during daylight hours, carrying extra fuel, to deal with any potential divertions, he added. This is similar to the steps taken in Middle East. It is possible that a plane could be hit by weapons, either accidentally or intentionally.

Osprey reports that six commercial aircraft have been accidentally shot down since 2001. Three other close calls were also reported. In December, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed in Kazakhstan killing 38 people. According to Azerbaijani sources and the president of Azerbaijan, the plane was shot down accidentally by Russian air defences.

In 2020, Iranian air defence operators mistakenly destroyed a Ukrainian passenger aircraft.

What could go wrong? Schouten continued, "I'm always saying that misidentification is the biggest risk."

(source: Reuters)