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Wall St Week Ahead: US jobs data will give an economic outlook for war-torn markets

The U.S. Employment Report next week will be a major economic event for investors. They'll also closely monitor the Iran War, which is now in its second month.

The markets will continue to focus on the impact of the Middle East conflict that has slashed a large portion of oil supply. U.S. crude oil?is up over 60% year-to date to almost $100 a barrel. This has led to U.S. gas prices to?surge at $4 per gallon. This could squeeze consumer spending. Investors worried about inflation pushed benchmark Treasury yields to their highest level since last summer. This could put pressure on equity valuations.

The S&P 500 index, which is the standard for the stock market, fell sharply on Thursday. Its slide has now reached nearly 6% in the time since the U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran at the end of February. The Nasdaq Composite closed down by more than 10% compared to its all-time October high, confirming that it was in correction.

Jim Baird of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, Chief Investment Officer, stated that the stock market would likely remain headline driven in the coming days due to conflicting signs of a possible de-escalation.

Baird stated that any signs of a positive breakthrough in the discussions with Iran, and a cessation in the conflict in Iran would go a great way to 'providing a sense of reassurance and boost sentiment for investors. "Anything which would indicate that this could become longer and drawn-out would be a negative to investor sentiment, and would certainly weigh on the market," Baird said.

Tuesday marks the end of a difficult first quarter in U.S. equity markets. Stocks have been rattled by the Iran conflict and concerns over business disruptions caused by artificial intelligence. After three years of double-digit gains, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 5% in 2026.

James Ragan is co-CIO at D.A. Davidson. "As we approach the final?couple days of the quarter I think you can see the market sentiment a little bit rolling over."

A POSITIVE JOB NUMBER

Data suggests that the March payroll report will show an increase of approximately 48,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate around 4.5%. The report is due April 3, when the U.S. Stock Markets will be closed on Good Friday.

The previous report for February showed a surprising decline in jobs of 92,000. Ragan noted that, given the fact that the two previous monthly reports showed a negative growth in employment, "anything positive would be good for market," Ragan stated.

Next week, we will also be receiving the retail sales figures for February as well as reports on manufacturing and service activity.

Last year, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates due to concerns about an deteriorating labor markets. The U.S. Central Bank will be in a difficult position if employment problems become more serious.

The Fed had already set a target for inflation, so the surge in energy prices is a barrier to any further rate reductions. According to LSEG data, the markets have 'factored in' no rate cuts this year. Fed funds futures are actually pricing in a small chance of a 2026 hike, according to LSEG.

RISE IN YIELDS AND FALLING VALUES

The benchmark yield on the 10-year Treasury note has increased to 4.4%, up from 4% just before the start of the war.

David Bianco is Americas chief Investment Officer at DWS. He said that the equity market was also paying close attention to the increase in yields. He said that the rise in yields has a wide range of implications, including the mortgage market, debt sustainability for the U.S. Government, and the fair price to earnings valuation.

In fact, in recent weeks the market has lowered its valuation. According to LSEG Datastream, the S&P 500 P/E ratio was just below 20 at the end of last year. It had been over 22 when the year began. This P/E remains above the long-term average of 16

Investors want to know the implications of the war on corporate profits and how this will affect energy prices. Delta Air Lines, FedEx and others recently released reports encouraging investors in the face of rising?fuel prices and other costs. Nike will announce its quarterly results on February 2, while the bulk first-quarter results won't be available for a few weeks.

Bianco stated, "I believe the U.S. economic situation is still safe from recession." We can argue about the likelihood of a recession increasing as oil prices rise, but I think that we are still a long way from one. (Reporting and editing by Colin Barr, David Gregorio and Lewis Krauskopf)

(source: Reuters)