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Opening Hormuz was the easy part. Bousso: Restoring oil flow is not the easy part
The sporadic shipping through the Strait of Hormuz highlights the uncertainty that hangs over the world's critical oil and natural gas chokepoint. Even if the gunfire stops, it will take months and perhaps years for the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz to return to its pre-war level. Iran announced on Saturday it was tightening its control over the Strait as a response to the U.S. blocking of Iranian tankers. It fired at?several vessels, and warned mariners the strait had been closed. This was just hours after Tehran had announced that the strait would temporarily reopen following a 10-day truce. U.S. President Donald?Trump stated that negotiations were in progress, but threatened to resume military action should shipping be disrupted once again. After the U.S. and Israeli aerial bombing of Iran began on February 28, Tehran effectively closed down the strait. Traffic through the strait, which normally transports around a fifth global oil and natural gas supplies, has been reduced to a trickle since then. Immediate impact was severe. The Gulf has been unable to supply the oil and LNG needed to sustain economies in Asia and Europe. The fighting in the Gulf has caused damage to energy infrastructure and diplomatic relations across the region. How will the recovery unfold, and at what point can the industry expect to return to pre-war levels of operation? THE RELIEF RUSH The speed of recovery depends not only on the diplomacy between Washington, D.C., and Tehran but also on logistics. According to Kpler, the first tankers leaving the Middle East are the 260 vessels that have already sailed into the Gulf. They carry 170 million barrels oil and 1.2 millions metric tons of LNG. The majority of these initial cargoes will likely be shipped to Asia. This region normally receives about 80% Gulf oil exports, and 90% of LNG. More than 300 empty oil tankers that are currently idling on the Gulf of Oman's shores will be able to move into the Gulf, and eventually head for loading terminals like Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura or Iraq's Basrah Oil Terminal. The first thing they will do is empty the onshore storage tanks that quickly filled up during the Hormuz shut down. The International Energy Agency estimates that the Gulf's commercial crude storage is currently at 262 million barrels. This is the equivalent of 20 days production disruption, leaving little room to produce until exports resume. However, the logistics of tanker transport will continue to slow down any full-scale recovery in energy flows. It takes about 20 days to travel from the Middle East up to India's West Coast. The longer-haul routes, such as those to China and Japan, can take up to two months. Finding enough tankers can be difficult. Many are tangled up in the shipping of oil and LNG between Americas and Asia, which can take as long as 40 days. Even under benign conditions, a full rebalancing and return to the pre-war rhythms of Gulf loading operations will take eight to twelve weeks. CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM Producers?such Saudi Aramco, and ADNOC of the United Arab Emirates will need to restart oil and gasoline production at fields and refineries that were closed during the fighting. This will require careful coordination and the return of thousands skilled workers who were evacuated due to the conflict. The storage capacity at coastal terminals will dictate the pace of recovery, creating a feedback loop that links upstream and downstream activity. The IEA estimates around half of Gulf oil fields and gas reservoirs retain enough pressure to restore pre-war production within two weeks. Another 30% may take?to 6 weeks, depending on the security situation and the restoration process of supply chains. The remaining 20%, or roughly 2,5 to 3 million bpd, faces far more difficult technical challenges. Some fields may take several months to recover due to low reservoir pressure, damaged machinery and lack of power. It could take five years to repair damage to major energy assets, such as Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Hub - which lost 17% of its capacity. It could take up to five years to repair some complex and ageing wells in?Iraq or Kuwait. Drilling new wells in the region could offset any persistent supply losses, but this process would take at least one year and require an improvement in security. Iraq and Kuwait are expected to lift force major declarations once the backlog of tankers is cleared and oilfields return to a steady production. These clauses allow exporters suspend deliveries in uncontrollable situations such as war. Even if the most optimistic scenario is realized - that peace talks are successful, no new conflicts occur and infrastructure damage is not as bad as feared – a return to full pre-war operations will take years. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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QXO buys commercial roofing company TopBuild for $17 Billion
QXO, a U.S. distributor of construction supplies, announced on 'Sunday that it would acquire the commercial roofing company 'TopBuild' for $17 billion. This is just one more acquisition in a string of?acquisitions? by Brad Jacobs and his billionaire business partner. In the deal, Connecticut based QXO announced that Florida based TopBuild shareholders could elect to receive either $505 in cash for each TopBuild stock held or 20.2 QXO shares. This is provided the transaction total is paid in approximately 45% cash and 55% shares of QXO stock. Calculations showed that the $505 cash payment represents a premium of 23.1% compared to TopBuild's Friday closing price of $410.31. QXO stated that the deal has been approved unanimously by?the boards?of both companies and is expected to immediately and significantly increase its earnings. QXO's market capitalization is around $18.08 Billion, while TopBuild?has a capitalization around $11.54 Billion. Over the past 11-month period, we have built QXO to be a leader in the market through acquisitions worth more than 13 billion dollars. We closed on Beacon by 2025, and Kodiak this month. TopBuild is our largest acquisition to date." Jacobs, chairman and CEO of QXO, said: 'CRITICAL MASS' The TopBuild?transaction also gives us critical mass in insulation and expands our exposure to large complex projects such as data centers where scale is important," said Jacobs who is widely regarded by M&A specialists. Jacobs has built multi-billion dollar companies in waste management, logistics and equipment rental. QXO is now better positioned to pursue new deals. QXO is a relatively new player in the building products industry. Last year, it acquired Beacon Roofing Supply for $11 billion. Home Depot won the bid for GMS, and it also threatened to take over GMS. The TopBuild deal, expected to close by the third quarter 2026, is part of an increase in mergers and purchases in the U.S. construction-products sector as companies look to'scale and localize their supply chains to mitigate tariffs. QXO will now have more than 28,000 employees and 1,150 locations in all 50 U.S. States, as well as seven Canadian provinces. Its fleet will also be larger than 10,000 vehicles. QXO announced in?February a $2.25billion deal to purchase U.S. building materials distributor Kodiak Building Partners. QXO raised $1.2 billion earlier this year and secured $1.8 billion from Apollo Global Management, Singapore's Temasek, and Singapore-based Apollo Global Management. According to its website, QXO distributes roofing products and other related building products. It uses technology to help contractors, suppliers, and customers manage inventory, orders, and customer service. TopBuild distributes and installs roofing and insulation products for residential, commercial, and industrial construction clients across North America.
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Trump accuses Iran a 'total' violation of ceasefire and threatens new attacks until it makes a deal
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, accused Iran of violating the ceasefire between the two countries by firing on ships near Strait of Hormuz. He also threatened to "wipe out" Iran's power plants and bridges if it did not accept his terms. Trump's envoys will arrive in Pakistan Monday evening to continue talks. The shipping is still stuck in the Strait, two days after Trump announced that it would open. He posted on social media: "We are offering a fair and reasonable DEAL. I hope they accept it, because if they don't the United States will knock out every Power Plant and every Bridge in Iran." "NO MORE, MR. NICE GUIY!" The global oil price fell, and the stock market soared when Iran announced that it would reopen its strait to all ships except for its own. This was the first time since Trump and Israel started the war in February. Tehran announced on Saturday that it would keep the strait closed 'after Trump stated he would continue to blockade Iranian shipping. Two ships have reported that they were 'fired upon as they approached the strait Saturday. "Iran fired bullets yesterday on the 'Strait of Hormuz, a total violation of our ceasefire agreement!" Trump wrote in a Sunday morning post. That wasn't nice at all, was it? Reporting by Bureaus; writing by James Mackenzie, Peter Graff, and Susan Heavey; editing by Sergio Non and William Mallard; Alex Richardson, William Mallard, and Alex Richardson
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France and Greece renew their defence pact by another five years
A Greek official announced on Sunday that French President Emmanuel Macron would 'travel to Greece next Week' - in order to renew a security pact - between the two countries against a...backdrop... of the war in Iran. In '2021, France and Greece signed a security agreement that required them to 'come to each other’s aid if attacked. This included the purchase by Athens of three French-made frigates, and approximately 24 Dassault Rafale fighter planes. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Macron's April 24-25 visit to Greece will renew the agreement for a further five-year period, and then automatically renew it. The official said that Macron and the Greek Government will also discuss maritime safety and?the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of?Hormuz remained closed on Sunday?after Iran?reasserted its control over the strategic waterway days before a fragile?ceasefire?with United States was due to expire. Greece is the leader of the European Union's Naval mission tasked with protecting ships in?the?Red Sea, but has opposed any military operations along the Strait of Hormuz. (Reporting and Editing by Christina Fincher.)
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First French man in his 80s to apologize formally for slavery in family
On Saturday, a man in his eighties issued what he believed to be 'the first formal apology in France by someone for their family's role in slavery. He said he hoped that others - and the government - would follow. Pierre Guillon de Prince’s ancestors were shipowners in Nantes, France’s largest port of transatlantic slavery. They transported 4,500 slaves from Africa and owned plantations throughout the Caribbean. Guillon de Prin said that other French families should confront their historical links to slavery and the state must go beyond symbolic gestures in order to address the past. "Faced by the rise of racism in our society I felt a duty not to erase this past," said the 86-year old, adding that he wanted to share the family history with his grandchildren. He apologized to a group in Nantes before the inauguration of an 18 metre replica mast. Dieudonne Boutrin is a descendant from enslaved people?from the Caribbean Island of Martinique. The two work together at Coque Nomade - Fraternite, an organization dedicated to "breaking silence" about slavery. They said that the mast will serve as a beacon of humanity. Boutrin said, "Many descendants of slave traders are afraid to speak out because they fear reopening old hurts and anger." "Pierre's apology was a brave act." Between the 15th and the 19th centuries, more than?12,5 million Africans, mostly Europeans, were abducted, forcedly transported, and transported on European ships. France was responsible for the trafficking of 1.3 million people. Guillon de prince's apology follows a similar one made by other families, both in Britain and elsewhere. GROW France recognized transatlantic slavery in 2001 as a crime. However, it has not formally apologized for its role, unlike most European countries. During his tenure in office, President Emmanuel Macron expanded access to archives relating to France's colonial history. He said last year that he would set up a commission to look at France's relationship with Haiti without talking about reparations. Worldwide, the calls for reparations are increasing - from official apologies to financial compensation. In the United Nations, France abstained from a resolution that was led by Africa and declared slavery to be the "gravest crimes against humanity" while calling for reparations. Reporting by Catarina demony in London. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Mediation fails in dispute over Franco-German fighter jet, Handelsblatt says
Handelsblatt reported on Saturday that despite the fact that 'political leaders have still got the option to intervene in the dispute between companies involved in a Franco-German FCAS project fighter jet,'mediators failed to resolve it. The newspaper cited?people who were familiar with the discussions as saying that the mediators, one from France and another from Germany, would each submit separate reports about their efforts. Persons familiar with the situation said that the German mediator will conclude that building a common fighter jet, which was once a major pillar of the project?, is no longer possible. The person said that the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be informed about the current status of the dispute Sunday. According to sources familiar with the project, Germany and France are likely to abandon the development of a?jointly piloted jet? but continue their cooperation on software and data systems as well as drones. Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron during the informal European Union Summit in Cyprus next Thursday and Friday. FCAS is at risk of failing or being scaled back as Europe looks to increase unity and collaboration in the face of threats from Russia, and the waning support from the United States. The project was stalled due to a control dispute between France's Dassault and Airbus which represent?Germany, Spain and the 100 billion-euro project. Dassault Aviation's head said on April 1 that he would give his company between two and three weeks to determine if a deal can be reached regarding the "air combat system". Merz stated that he was doing all he could to save the program and two mediators were appointed to "overcome differences" late last month. A spokesperson for Airbus in France declined to comment. Dassault, the French presidency, and Dassault have not responded to comments.
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FIFA warns that New Jersey's $150 fare for transit will have a 'chilling' effect.
FIFA has warned that New Jersey's decision to charge $150 round-trip for transit?to World Cup games?will have a 'chilling effect' on fans. The fare is a tenfold increase over the $15 usual for the route. The price increase can add thousands of dollars to World Cup tickets, especially if they are sold on the secondary market. The MetLife Stadium will host eight matches including the final on July 19. Kris Kolluri, the CEO of New Jersey Transit, had defended his pricing by citing increased passenger numbers due to the closure of public parking near the stadium and the World Cup security requirements. Heimo Schirgi is the Chief Operating Office for the World Cup in 2026. He said that the price increase would force the fans to consider other options. The current NJ Transit pricing model will have a chilling effect. Schirgi stated that increased fares will inevitably drive fans to alternative transportation options. This increases the concerns about congestion and late arrivals and creates wider ripple effects which ultimately reduce the economic benefits and lasting legacy that the entire region stands a chance to gain by hosting the World Cup. "Furthermore... to arbitrarily raise prices and then demand FIFA cover these costs is unprecedented." "No other major event, concert, or global sporting promoter faced such a request." GOVERNOR SAYS "FIFA SHOULD PAID" New Jersey Governor Mikie?Sherrill said previously NJ TRANSIT was "stuck" with a bill of $48 million to ensure fan security while?FIFA made $11 billion. I'm not going leave New Jersey commuters to foot the bill for many years. Sherrill said that FIFA should pay for rides. FIFA denied Sherrill’s claim and said they generated $11 billion of revenue, not profits. "FIFA is a non-profit organization as per our Statutes." Schirgi added that the FIFA World Cup revenues are reinvested in 'developing football worldwide, especially for youth and women. "Finally, we applaud all of our partner cities across the country for embracing this opportunity to showcase their regions to visitors through low-cost and often unchanged rates on mass transit." (Reporting and editing by Clare Fallon in Bengaluru, Rohith Nair from Bengaluru)
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Machado, Venezuela's Machado, says that the Spanish PM's summit on leftist politics is why he has not met him
Maria 'Corina Machado, Venezuelan opposition leader, said that she refused to meet with Spain's Prime Minister during her visit as he was hosting an?event of progressive leaders in Barcelona. Machado is a Nobel Peace Prize-winning?liberal? of the right-wing, who has refused to meet with Spain's leftist government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. This is in stark contrast to her frequent meetings with Sanchez's opponents from the right. Machado said at a?event held in Madrid that "what transpired over the last few hours in his meeting in Barcelona with different political leaders from different countries was proof that such a?meeting was not advised." Sanchez said that he would be willing to meet Machado at any time. He also called for Venezuelans to determine their own future democratically, without foreign interference. Machado will be feted by one of Sanchez’s fiercest critics later that day, Madrid regional leader Isabel Diaz Ayuso. She will then?hold a rally in the Spanish capital with?the Venezuelan Diaspora. Return to VENEZUELA Machado praised Spain for its welcoming Venezuelan migrants but said that neutrality is no longer acceptable in regards to the interim government led by Delcy Rodrguez, which was formed after the U.S. army ousted Nicolas Maduro during a raid on Caracas last January. Washington has since then been working with?Rodriguez to increase its presence in Venezuela’s oil sector. This week, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund resumed their dealings with Caracas after a break that began in 2019. Machado stated that she is coordinating with Washington regarding?her return to Venezuela in order to lead a democratic transformation. She said she supported the IMF's renewed supervision of the economy and that it would allow the central bank vaults to be opened in order to reveal the gold reserves of Venezuela. She also demanded that she be informed clearly when the next elections will take place. She said: "It is very clear that at the moment, there are those who want Venezuela to be democratic and free and those who wish to maintain the status quo. Just ask them when elections should take place." Corina Pons is the reporter. David Latona is the author. Louise Heavens (Editing by David Latona)
Asian Airlines report Europe demand surge due to Gulf hub disruption
Major Asian airlines report a surge in demand for European routes, as travellers avoid Middle -Eastern hubs that are disrupted. This trend could continue 'for some time after the Iran conflict is over.
Last week, Cathay Pacific Airways of Hong Kong, Singapore Airlines, Korean Air Lines, and Australia's Qantas Airways revealed robust performance on European routes for March, despite a doubled price of jet fuel.
Cathay's Chief Customer and Business Officer Lavinia Lav said on Friday that "we have... increased flights and capacity into Europe in March andApril to meet the surge in demand from passengers who are prioritising alternative routes."
She added that she expected the strong demand to continue into April, fueled by Easter travel as well as increased long-haul bookings transiting in Hong Kong.
Singapore Airlines reported that the percentage of seats filled on their European flights increased to 93.5%, from 79.7% one year ago. This was due to spillover traffic to Europe as Middle East hub capacity fell. This was the largest gain of any region.
GULF CARRIERS CHALLENGES
Cirium, a firm that collects aviation data, estimates that before the conflict, Emirates and Qatar Airways, together with Etihad Airways, accounted for a third of the passenger traffic between Europe,?Asia, and transported more than half of passengers from Europe to Australia and New Zealand, as well as Pacific Islands.
Flightradar24's data indicates that the major Gulf carriers are?gradually? restoring their capacity. All three have reached at least 60% more flight numbers than before the conflict.
Travel insurance does not cover them because Australia warns its citizens against traveling to the Gulf or changing planes there.
According to Google Travel, as a result of this, customers will need to pay more for flights that do not fly over the Gulf.
Etihad's economy class return Sydney-London tickets departing next Saturday are the cheapest, at A$1,861 (1,333.59). United Airlines, at A$3,144 via San Francisco, and Thai Airways A$3,901 via Bangkok are the most affordable one-stop options to avoid the Middle East.
Bank of America analysts stated in a note published recently that "tight prices and gains on Asia-Europe route could persist for 6-12 month even after the war due to forward booking delays and traveler aversion to risk."
ALTERNATIVE HUBS
Korean Air reported a strong European performance in its first quarter estimated results. Operating income increased 47.3%, to 517 billion dollars won.
This growth was partly due to an "increased need between Europe and Asia because of the Middle East war", with European passenger revenues up 18% compared to a year ago.
The airline expects a "strong transit demand", resulting from the reduced market supply of Middle East carriers.
Qantas has adjusted its operation to reflect the shift. It re-deployed capacity from U.S. routes and domestic routes in order to increase flights to Paris and Rome.
The airline stated that "Qantas continues?to see strong demand for international travelers to Europe as customers search for alternative routes."
Airservices Australia's manager of air traffic control said that Australia-Middle East travel was down 77% on an annual basis in March, as flights were rerouted through other cities.
Airservices stated that Asian gateways like Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Hong Kong could become alternative travel hubs. ($1 = 1,479.7600 yen) ($1 = 1.3955 Australian Dollars) (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Julie Zhu)
(source: Reuters)