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United Airlines' outlook is disappointing as jet fuel surge threatens near term

United Airlines forecast Tuesday that its second-quarter and annual profits would be below Wall Street's estimates as high jet fuel prices squeeze margins. This will cloud the airline's near-term outlook even though demand for premium travel remains robust.

The Chicago-based carrier expects to earn between $1 and $2 per share adjusted in the second quarter. According to LSEG data, the midpoint, $1.50 is lower than analysts' average estimates of $2.08 per share.

It predicted a full-year profit between $7 and $11 per share compared to an expectation of $9.58.

United's stock was down about 2% after-hours.

The airline's?forecast is based on a forward curve for Gulf Coast jet fuel as of April 17. It cautioned that the results could be at the upper or lower end of its guidance, depending on whether prices are falling or increasing.

The cautious forecast is further evidence that the fuel shock caused by the Iran War has reshaped the economics of U.S. airlines.

Delta Air Lines already canceled its growth plans, while Alaska Air retracted its full-year forecast and claimed that current fare increases only covered about a third its increased fuel bill. Spirit Airlines, a financially weaker carrier, is facing renewed strain.

GE Aerospace has warned that the rising oil prices have created a more difficult environment for its airline customers.

United expects to spend about $4.30 a gallon on fuel during the current quarter. This highlights the rising cost of energy.

The airline expects to recover 40% to 50% of fuel price increases through fares and revenue measures during the second quarter. This will improve to 70% to 80% by the third quarter and up to 85% to 100 percent in the fourth quarter.

This suggests that the airline is expecting its ability to recover fuel costs via fares and other revenue measures will improve over time but not enough to offset the latest cost'surge in near-term.

PREMIUM DEMAND HOLDS

United beat analysts' expectations of $1.07 per share by reporting a first-quarter adjusted profit of $1.19. The total revenue increased 10.6% on an annual basis to $14.6 billion.

Premium revenue increased by 14% compared to a year ago, corporate revenue was up 14%, and loyalty revenue was up 13%. This shows that the higher-margin areas of its business are still thriving.

Fuel costs rose $340 million in the third quarter, a 12.6% increase from a year ago.

United Airlines said that capacity for the third and fourth quarters of 2018 is expected to remain flat or increase by 2% compared to a year ago. This indicates a more "restrained" approach to growth, as airlines seek to protect their margins.

The airline will continue to be flexible with its capacity and may make further reductions or additions based on demand.

The company will hold a conference call on Wednesday morning with analysts and investors to discuss its financial performance. (Reporting and editing by Pooja Deai; Rajesh Kumar Singh)

(source: Reuters)