Latest News
-
Taiwan evacuates thousands as Typhoon Bavi hits Japan's southern islands
On Saturday, Typhoon Bavi pounded?Japan’s?southern Sakishima Island chain with heavy rainfall and violent winds as it headed toward Taiwan. Authorities warned of the dangers of flooding and landslides. Ishigaki Island, a part of Okinawa Prefecture, was strewn with debris, and only a few vehicles braved the rain and gale. The strong currents in a harbour were caused by the storm's strong winds, which reached a maximum sustained speed of 144 km/h (90mph) near the centre. Authorities warned of gusts up to 198 km/h. All Saturday, flights and ferry services in Ishigaki - a popular tourist spot - were suspended. More than 24,000 Okinawa households lost power and?345 airlines cancelled flights. Taiwan's government evacuated 14,000 people from mountainous areas, as the island was shut down for the approaching Bavi. Although Bavi is not expected to land on Taiwan, the government has taken precautions in order to prevent deaths, as forecasts call for rain of upto 3 feet (1 meter) in certain areas. All 280 domestic flights and 920 international flights were cancelled, and most of the people evacuated lived in the North and East. Most cities and counties in Taiwan have declared Saturday a Typhoon Holiday. This means that any offices or schools open over the weekend will be closed. The main north-south rail line was open, but with a reduced service. Some people were still on the streets despite the wind and rain in the downtown area of the capital Taipei. Yeh Maohsiung (68), a Taipei resident, said, "It's okay, it's nothing serious." He was out walking his dog in the morning. "It's only a little more wind." In Beitou, a neighbourhood of Taipei in the foothills surrounding the mountains, gusts up to 60 mph (100 kph) knocked trees down and swollen rivers. Bavi will hit Wenzhou in eastern China, a city with a population of?10,000,000, on Sunday morning. Chen Qiuqin in her 60s walked to her parents home through steady rain to prepare them for the approaching typhoon. "I was worried about the flowerpots that were on my mother's balcony, so I will help move them in." She said, "I was worried because my parents are both old and home alone. I didn't feel at ease." Reporting by Joseph Campbell, Angie Teo, Yimou Le in Taipei and Go Nakamura in Wenzhou. Additional reporting by Ella Cao and Go Nakamura in Wenzhou. Writing by Ben Blanchard & Chang-Ran Kim. Editing by Kim Coghill & William Mallard.
-
Bahamas grounds Flamingo Air after 10 die in plane crash
The Bahamas' Prime Minister,?Philip Davis, said that 10 people were killed after an aircraft crashed on one of the Caribbean country's islands. Davis stated during a news conference that "once again, tragedy has marked a chapter of our nation's history." "Today was a celebration, but it has now become a mourning day." According to the Bahamian Aviation Accident Investigation Authority, the crash occurred at around 1:00 pm EDT, after the Cessna 402. took off from Lynden Pindling International Airport on its way to San Andros Airport. The authority stated that the aircraft "reportedly experienced difficulties" before it crashed into bushes. Shanta knowles, the police commissioner, said that there were nine passengers on board and one pilot. She said that one person survived at first but died later. Flamingo Air is a Bahamas-based carrier that operated the flight. The Ministry of Transport has suspended the airline’s air operator's certificate as a "precautionary safety measure." Flamingo?didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. However, they told local media that "at this time, the details are?being gathered and we are committed?to cooperating with relevant authorities." (Reporting and editing by Jasper Ward, Washington)
-
Michigan Republican: New US-Canada bridge will open soon
After talks about the financial arrangements, the?new bridge? connecting Detroit to Windsor, Ontario is expected to open soon, according a Michigan Republican. The Gordie Howe Bridge was scheduled to open in early June, after U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to close it in February due concerns over the deal. Michigan Republican Senate Candidate Mike Rogers stated Friday on WJR radio he spoke to U.S. Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick, who informed him that the administration has reached a deal which will be?announced within the next few days in order to allow the bridge's opening to occur soon. Sources confirmed that a deal was reached and that the U.S. would get 50% of the toll revenue. They also said that they could veto any toll increase that exceeds 10%. Early June was planned as the date for a formal ribbon cutting. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, said that Canada had agreed to defer the opening of its doors at the request from the Trump administration. Carney stated that "we agreed to delay the opening in order to take the time necessary to resolve outstanding questions." In February, Trump cited Canada’s refusal to sell some U.S. alcohol products in Canadian stores, Canada’s tariffs on milk products and Canada’s trade negotiations with China as reasons why he may not allow the bridge's opening. Matthew Moroun is the owner of the Ambassador Bridge, which connects Detroit to Windsor. He met Lutnick in February and had given $1 million weeks earlier to a Trump-aligned PAC. Canada funded the construction of the bridge in 2018 because the U.S. refused. Tolls were supposed to cover the costs over 30 years. It is unclear how the revenue split will affect the repayment schedule. The new bridge is expected to ease the truck traffic on the Ambassador Bridge, which leads into Detroit. Detroit is the largest port of entry for commercial trucks on the U.S. Canada border, with a value of $126 billion in 2023. According to a University of Windsor report, it will save truckers $2.3billion over the next 30 years. Trump has issued a number of threats towards Canada during his second term, and has dramatically increased tariffs against the U.S. neighbor to the north. Trump hinted last month that he may not renew the free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. (Reporting and editing by Alistair Bell; David Shepardson)
-
The US pump pain worsens as more US-Iran conflict lifts oil prices
After weeks of declines in gasoline prices, U.S. motorists have experienced a new spike after renewed fighting between U.S. and Iran has pushed crudeoilprices up to their highest weekly increase?in eight week. The global refining industry is experiencing disruptions, and the 'U.S. Fuel exports tightened the supply further, and AAA data show that average pump prices increased 6 cents to $3.88 per gallon this week. This was the largest weekly increase since mid May. The renewed fighting between Iran and the U.S. over the Strait of Hormuz has sent energy prices sharply up this week. The U.S. summer driving period is in full swing and the stubbornly high gas prices are a political hot button for President Donald Trump. His Republican Party is running a campaign to win a thin majority in the U.S. Congress during the November midterm elections. Trump has accused oil companies of price gouging. Alex Hodes is the director of energy market strategy at StoneX. He said that gasoline prices rose along with the huge move up in crude oil following the attacks on several tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Brent, the global oil futures benchmark, was set to gain 5.5% in a week after several tankers were attacked while transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran then exchanged tit-for -tat strikes, and Washington revoked a license allowing the sale of Iranian crude oil. Oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz are still well below their pre-conflict level, which has stoked fears that minor disruptions to oil markets could have global repercussions. Before the beginning of the conflict on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz carried around 20% of global daily oil and gas supplies. Trump has pushed gasoline retailers to reduce prices more aggressively. The administration has asked the U.S. Justice Department investigate possible price gouging of gasoline and introduced a price-cutting program offering discounted gasoline in some locations throughout Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Hodes said that the tightening of fuel supply is only part the story. He cited unplanned refinery shutdowns in Russia and the U.S. as the main cause. The Russian refining industry has been affected by repeated attacks that have reduced fuel production, causing shortages. Moscow has cut diesel exports while increasing gasoline imports. This has tightened global fuel supplies, and raised prices. Tom Kloza is the chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil. He said that Russian production of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel has been decimated, with months?of downtime to come. In the U.S., refinery outages have further strained supplies, including disruptions at Marathon Petroleum's 146,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Detroit, Michigan, and Delta's 190,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 1.9 millions barrels to 212.1 million barrels. This is nearly 10 million below the average five-year stockpile. Denton Cinquegrana is the chief oil analyst for Dow Jones Energy. He said that gasoline stocks in all U.S. areas are below their seasonal norms, but this shortfall was most pronounced along the Gulf Coast. Last week, inventories in the U.S. Gulf Coast region, which produces a large portion of the nation's refined products, dropped to 76.4 million barrels, well below the average for the past five years of 82.3 millions barrels. The loss of Middle Eastern barrels and Russian barrels on the global market has also allowed U.S. refiners to enjoy higher margins for their fuel as swing suppliers. U.S. Petroleum Products Exports Hit a Weekly Record of 8,7 Million bpd In the Week to July 3 EIA?Data showed. Houston traders are betting on whether the U.S. Gulf of Mexico will see 2-million barrels per day for distillate exports. Kloza wrote this to his clients Thursday. Summer driving in the U.S. from June to early September is a time when gasoline consumption increases. However, production of summer blend fuels, which are more expensive, raises refinery costs and therefore pump prices. Cinquegrana stated that prices are likely to rise in the near future. (Reporting from Nicole Jao, New York; Additional Reporting by Shariq Khan; Editing Liz Hampton & David Gregorio).
-
FAA extends Chicago O'Hare flight restrictions for another year
U.S. Federal Aviation Administration announced on Friday that it would extend 10% flight reductions?for an additional year at Chicago O'Hare in order to avoid delays and?address congestion concerns at the busy United Airlines/American Airlines hub. In April, the agency announced that it would limit O'Hare's arrivals and departing flights to 2,708 per day between May 17 and October 24. This forced both major airlines to'scale back' their plans and maintain operations at last year's level to avoid a'repeat' of widespread delays. The FAA announced Friday that the restrictions would now continue until "the end of 2027". The airlines had planned 3,080 daily flights this summer, which is about 15% more than last year. This move is evidence that the Trump administration has taken a hard stance in the 'capacity race' between two major carriers at the most important hub of the nation, highlighting the limitations of growth for airports with limited infrastructure. O'Hare still experienced significant delays over the past few weeks due to runway construction and weather problems. The FAA said that O'Hare's excessive scheduling was due to the competitive scheduling dynamics of the two airport's largest carriers. They rejected the idea of using the 'newer summer schedules 2026' as a baseline because it could encourage airlines to submit unrealistic schedules to improve their negotiation position. United and American are both expanding in Chicago as they compete for market share at the nation's most important hubs. The performance of last summer showed the risks. Congestion and construction slowed traffic, and only 56% of departures were on time and 58% arrivals. Initially, the restrictions were advertised as temporary measures tied to construction. They were set to expire by the end of summer travel season. (Reporting and Editing by Franklin Paul, Aurora Ellis and David Shepardson)
-
Wall Street closes higher as investors look to earnings season
S&P 500 ended 'just short of a new record high' on Friday as a Nasdaq debut? by South Korea’s SK Hynix fueled optimism for memory-chip makers. Investors also looked forward to the quarterly earnings season, which begins next week. Artificial intelligence is back in the spotlight following SK Hynix's $170 opening price, which was 14% higher than its initial offering price. The semiconductor company raised more than $26 billion by selling American depositary receipts at $149 per piece on Thursday. U.S. stocks increased after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that Iran asked for continued talks, and the U.S. agreed. The U.S. had agreed to the ceasefire, but said that it was "over." The attacks between the U.S. & Iran this week have re-ignited concerns that high energy costs could fuel inflation and force Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Next week, the earnings season for the second quarter will begin with reports from major U.S. financial institutions. According to LSEG, analysts expect S&P500 earnings to increase by 24% compared to the previous year. Technology companies are expected to drive much of this growth. Terry Sandven is the chief equity strategist of U.S. Bank Wealth Management, Minneapolis, Minnesota. The banks will provide us with a good indication of the economic strength and how consumers and businesses are faring. The S&P 500 trades at 20 times expected earnings due to the increased profit estimates of corporations. This is down from 21 earnings multiples in late May, although the benchmark is near record highs. The AI rally this year has been fueled by the expectations that hyperscalers will spend heavily. Concerns over inflated valuations and profit-taking have recently caused volatility in the sector. The preliminary data shows that the S&P 500 rose 28.72 points or 0.38% to 7,572.36 while the Nasdaq Composite increased 77.52 or 0.25% to 26,273.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 148.28?or 0.2% to 52,635.69. Meta Platforms has risen to its highest level in April. Moderna had its worst day for over a month. The upcoming?June data on inflation will provide new insight into the?Fed's likely monetary policies.?Fed chair Kevin Warsh also has a scheduled testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services. Delta Air Lines fell, even though it forecasted a third-quarter profit that was above expectations.
-
Wall St. slightly higher after SK Hynix's impressive debut limits losses in chips stocks
S&P 500 climbed to a new record high on Friday as a 'blockbuster Nasdaq debut by South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix fueled optimism for semiconductor?stocks. Investors also looked forward to the quarterly earnings season, which begins next week. Artificial intelligence is back in the spotlight following SK Hynix's $170 opening price, which was 14% higher than its initial offering price. This high-profile U.S. IPO brought artificial intelligence to a new level. Memory-chip maker raised $26.5 billion by selling American depositary receipts at $149 per piece on Thursday. U.S. stock prices increased after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that Iran asked for continued talks, and that the U.S. agreed. However, the June ceasefire is "over." The attacks between the U.S. & Iran this week have re-ignited concerns that high energy costs could fuel inflation and force Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Next week, the earnings season for the second quarter will begin with reports from major U.S. financial institutions. According to LSEG, analysts expect S&P500 earnings to increase by 24% compared to the previous year, with technology companies leading this growth. Terry Sandven is the chief equity strategist of U.S. Bank Wealth Management, based in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The banks will give us an accurate read on the economic strength, and how consumers and businesses are faring. The S&P 500 trades at a multiple of about 20 earnings, down slightly from a multiple of 21 earnings in late May. This is despite the benchmark being near record highs. The AI-driven rally this year has been fueled by the expectations of hyperscalers spending heavily. Recent volatility in the industry has been attributed to concerns about 'over stretched valuations' and profit-taking. The PHLX Chip Index gained 0.5% and remained about 11% below its record-breaking close on June 22, The?S&P500 was up 0.32% to 7,567.48, less than 1% below its record high June 2 close. The Nasdaq gained 0.23%, reaching 26,265.80, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.31%, to 52,649.55. Meta Platforms has risen 5.7%, its highest level since April. Moderna fell?almost 11 percent and was on track for its worst day since over a year. Eight out of 11 S&P 500 sectors indexes have risen, with the information technology sector leading the way, up by 1.65%. Consumer discretionary followed, with a gain of 1.46%. The Fed's likely monetary policies will be revealed by the June inflation data, which is due to be released next week. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh also has a scheduled appearance before the House Committee on Financial Services. Delta Air Lines fell 1.3% even though it forecasted a third-quarter profit that was above expectations. The S&P 500 has a ratio of 1.9 to 1. This means that the number of rising issues is greater than the number falling ones.
-
European shares end four-week winning streak due to tech selling off, US-Iran War
European shares shook off a four-week streak of gains on Friday. The oil market was rattled by a 'unwinding in tech stocks' and the resurgence of tensions?in the Middle East. Investors lowered their hopes for a quick relief from the energy shock, and the?pan-European?STOXX600 fell 1.8% this week. Brent futures rose 5% this week after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes. Washington also reimposed sanctions against Iranian oil. The NATO summit in Turkey added a layer to the uncertainty, as U.S. president Donald Trump called Spain "a terrible partner" and threatened halting trade with that country. He later softened his rhetoric. The week's events show that geopolitical risk is still a major factor in investor sentiment. "There was an air of complacency, as if the war wasn't a problem anymore. This week, we were reminded that the war is still a problem, said Marta Norton. Investors sought diversification outside of the obvious AI beneficiaries, and were influenced by the ongoing rotation away from global tech giants. The markets will now focus on the earnings season, which could potentially provide fresh momentum for equities. Technology?sector fell 1.3% on Friday and 1.8% in the past week. Soitec and ASML fell 5.9% and 2.0%, respectively, for the day. Ipek Ozkardeskaya is a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. He said: "The large swings in technology stocks... indicate investors are still under pressure despite the elevated valuations." Telecom stocks rose 1.3% after a 12.6% increase in Vodafone, after UAE telecoms company e& announced it would sell its stake to the family of French billionaire Xavier Niel. Airlines led the way in the travel and leisure sector, which saw a 1% increase. EasyJet, the UK's largest airline, surged by 14.3% following its agreement in principle with Apollo Global to acquire it for PS5.7 billion ($7.65billion). St. James's Place, one of money manager's biggest?partner firms?, dropped 8.5% on the STOXX 600 after a report that Sovereign Wealth was considering?a departure from the group. J.P.Morgan upgraded ArcelorMittal from "underweight" to "neutral", and its shares rose 6.4%. Voestalpine gained 6% and Salzgitter gained 6% respectively. The brokerage upgraded both stocks from "underweight" to "overweight". Ryanair closed 0.9% higher after gaining as much as 2.9% in the session. Two airport sources reported that a passenger was partially sucked out of a Ryanair plane shortly after takeoff in Greece. Volkswagen has fallen for the third day in a row. Two sources at the company said that powerful union representatives had blocked a major restructuring plan. On Friday, the automaker reported a 8.6% drop in global vehicle sales in the second quarter. This is the largest quarterly decline since 2004. Reporting by Tharuniyaa lakshmi in Bengaluru, Purvi agarwal and Niket Nishant; editing by Niveditarjee Bhattacharjee & Aurora Ellis
Opening Hormuz was the easy part. Bousso: Restoring oil flow is not the easy part
The sporadic shipping through the Strait of Hormuz highlights the uncertainty that hangs over the world's most critical oil and natural gas chokepoint. One thing is certain: even if all the guns are silenced, it will take years to restore the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-war level.
Iran announced on Saturday it would tighten control of the strait as a response to an?U.S. Blockade of Iranian tankers. Fired at several vessels. Warned?mariners about the closure. It was just hours after Tehran had announced a temporary "reopening" amid a 10-day ceasefire. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that negotiations were in progress and threatened to resume military action should shipping be disrupted once again. After the U.S. and Israeli aerial bombing of Iran began on February 28, Tehran effectively closed down the strait. Traffic through the strait, which normally transports around a fifth global oil and natural gas supplies, has been reduced to a trickle since then. Immediate impact was severe. The Gulf has been unable to release around 13 million barrels of oil per day and 300 million cubic metres of LNG per day, forcing oil producers to close refineries, LNG plants, and oil fields. This has impacted economies in Asia and Europe. Fighting has caused damage to the energy infrastructure and diplomatic relations in the region.
How will the recovery unfold, and at what point can the industry expect to return to pre-war levels of operation?
THE RELIEF RUSH
The speed of recovery depends not only on the diplomacy between Washington, D.C., and Tehran?but also on logistics and availability of tanker insurance, freight rates, and the willingness of the shipowners risking the passage.
According to Kpler, the first tankers leaving the Middle East are the 260 vessels that have already sailed into the Gulf. They carry 170 million barrels?of oil and 1.2 million tons of LNG.
The majority of these initial cargoes will likely be shipped to Asia. This region normally receives about 80% Gulf oil exports, and 90% of LNG.
After these vessels leave, over 300 empty oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman will slowly move into the Gulf to load terminals like Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura or Iraq's Basrah Oil Terminal.
The first thing they will do is empty the onshore storage tanks that grew rapidly during the shutdown of 'Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, commercial crude storage in Gulf is currently?at around 262 million barrels. This is the equivalent of twenty days of interrupted production.
However, the logistics of tanker transport will continue to slow down any full-scale recovery in energy flows. A trip from the Middle East up to India's West Coast, for instance, usually takes 20 days. The longer-haul routes, such as those to China and Japan, can take up to two months.
Finding enough tankers can be difficult. Many are tangled up in the shipping of oil and LNG between Americas and Asia, which can take as long as 40 days.
Even under benign conditions, a full rebalancing and return to the pre-war rhythms of Gulf loading operations will take eight to twelve weeks.
CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM
Saudi Aramco, the United Arab Emirates ADNOC and other producers will need to restart production at oil fields and refineries that were closed during the fighting.
This will require careful coordination and the return of thousands skilled workers, contractors, and other professionals who were evacuated due to the conflict. The speed of recovery will be determined by the amount of storage available at coastal terminals. This creates a feedback loop that links upstream and downstream activity.
The IEA estimates around half of Gulf oil fields and gas reservoirs retain enough pressure to return production to pre-war levels?within two weeks. Another 30% of the oil and gas fields could return to pre-war output?within two weeks.
The remaining 20%, or roughly 2,5 to 3 million bpd, faces far more difficult technical challenges. Some fields may take several months to recover due to low reservoir pressure, damaged machinery and power supply issues. Repairing major energy assets such as Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Hub, where 17% of its capacity was affected, could take five years. It could take up to five years to repair some complex and ageing wells in Iraq and Kuwait.
Drilling new wells in the region could offset any persistent supply losses, but this process would take at least one year and require an improvement of security conditions.
Iraq and Kuwait are expected to lift force majeure declarations once the backlog of tankers is cleared and oilfields resume a steady production. These clauses allow exporters suspend deliveries in uncontrollable situations such as war.
Even if the most optimistic scenario is realized - that peace talks are successful, no new conflicts occur and infrastructure damage is not as bad as feared – a return to full pre-war operations will take years.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)