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Ukraine will survey farmers about winter sowing plans for 2027
The Ukrainian agriculture ministry announced on Wednesday that it would conduct a survey among?farmers to determine their plans for winter?crops sowing for the harvest of 2027 and their capacity for storing?crops?for 2026. The Russian attack on Ukrainian Black Sea port has effectively stopped maritime exports. This leaves farmers unable sell their grain or prepare for and carry out a sowing campaign, primarily for winter Wheat. The?ministry announced that the survey was designed to collect up-to date information about the areas that farmers plan to sow in the fall, the progress made on the final stages of the harvest campaign for 2026, and the crop storage capacity available at agricultural enterprises. Last month, Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said that farmers would reduce the area they sowed for the winter wheat harvest of 2027 because they could not export the wheat harvested. According to the ministry, the risk is that the area that will be sown in 2027 could decrease between 5 and 7 million acres. Ukraine has sown around 20 million hectares (mostly wheat,?corn, and sunflower) of grains and oilseeds in preparation for harvest 2026. The?ministry said that the disruption of grain exports via Black Sea ports could result in a shortage of storage capacity for up to 11 millions tons. The'shortfall' was about?15 millions tons in 2022.
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Haldia Petrochemicals plans to use more LPG in the face of the Iran war threatening feedstock supplies
Haldia Petrochemicals, a company in India, is planning to increase the use of liquefied petroleum gases at its naphtha fueled?cracker by up to 30%. This will help to mitigate supply risks from the Middle East due to the U.S. - Iran 'war. Navanit Narayan said on the sidelines the APPEC Industry Conference that "we are working with Lummus" to retrofit the cracker to allow for LPG flexibility up to 30%. Naphtha & LPG are key feedstocks for petrochemicals that are used in the production of plastics & automotive parts. Narayan stated that "the (naphtha supply) shock from Gulf War was a wake-up call for us. We will have a plan ready at the end of this year." Haldia had term contracts for the supply of naphtha with QatarEnergy and?Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Narayan stated, "We are still working to remove the Qatari volumes." A medium-range tanker can transport up to 35,000 tons of oil products. Narayan stated that the company will source LPG from Indian Oil Petronas Limited, which operates next to a plant at the same site as?HPL. He added, "We also look to import LPG at every possible source." Haldia's ethylene plant in West Bengal, a state in eastern India, has a capacity to process ethylene at a rate of?700,000. It also processes polymers at a rate of?1 million tons per year. It plans to inaugurate a phenol and acetone plant in October. The Chatterjee Group, a private equity firm based in the United States, owns the majority of this company.
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Kremlin: cheaper Russian gas can ease Europe's pain amid rising costs
On Wednesday, the Kremlin said that European countries were paying a high price for avoiding Russian gas due to rising energy prices and could instead be purchasing cheaper supplies from Moscow. The war in Iran has caused European gas prices to soar. They reached their highest level since the end of 2022 when the Ukraine conflict forced Europe to cut imports?of Russian pipe gas. Last week, the benchmark European gas price climbed to EUR75 a megawatt-hour. This is more than double what it was a year earlier. Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, said that Europe hurt itself by purchasing expensive?gas at the spot market rather than opting for cheaper Russian alternatives. "Europeans are well advised to look for cheaper energy sources. "Russian gas, whether it is piped or liquefied, would have been a more affordable option for them long ago, even though LNG is always priced at the spot market," he said to reporters in a daily call. Gas Infrastructure Europe has reported that Europe's gas storage is 67% full compared to nearly 80% last year. HSBC predicts European inventories to reach 73% on November 1, the lowest level since data collection began. According to calculations, the Russian pipeline gas exports into Europe dropped by 44% to 18 billion cubic meters last year, the lowest level since the mid-1970s, after the closure the Ukrainian transit route. calculations. In 2018 and 2019, Russian pipeline gas exports into Europe reached a peak of around 180 bcm annually. The explosions that occurred in 2022 on the 'Nord Stream' undersea pipelines also reduced Russian gas shipments to Europe. Unharmed is one leg of Nord Stream 2's pipeline in the Baltic Sea. Nord Stream is a natural product that Europeans could have used long ago, if they had used common sense. Peskov stated that one of the strings is still intact and functional, and could be put back into service very quickly.
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Dutch public transport stopped by strike over welfare cuts
A nationwide strike on Wednesday against the government's proposal to cut welfare spending halted public transport in The Netherlands. A 24-hour strike affected train services in the entire country, including international trains to Belgium, Germany France and Britain. The strike was organised by the unions against plans to reduce welfare spending up to EUR6.5billion ($7.6billion) annually, mainly through limiting unemployment benefits. The strike is a further obstacle to the centre-right minorities government that was installed in this year's parliament. The coalition is in need of outside support, as it lacks a majority. The opposition's leading left-wing Pro Party has joined the unions to demand that any proposals for welfare cuts be removed from the table. To gain support, the government has already backed down from a plan that would have raised retirement age. Last week it also agreed to soften some other proposals. The Pro party, however, has stated that this is likely not enough and will be requiring 'further negotiation after the official presentation of government budget on 15 September.
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Merz: Drone attack on airport by Russia prepared for by Merz narrowly avoided disaster
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated on Wednesday that an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle airport?had been 'prepared in Russia for a long time and a disaster had only just been avoided. Merz, a member of the lower house of parliament, said that this attack had been 'planned in Russia over months' and was targeted specifically at Germany. It was only by chance that major material damage was prevented and harm to people was avoided. Merz made his remarks after the far right Alternative for Germany won a major state election 'in Saxony Anhalt' on Sunday. The platform of the party included?calls for a closer relationship with?Moscow. Russia has denied any involvement in the drone incident at Leipzig Airport, and its foreign minister said that these accusations are "the start of a real war".
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Ivory Coast cocoa producers struggle to use the new traceability system
Ivorian cocoa buyers, traders and cooperatives are struggling to implement a new national traceability system that was introduced in advance of upcoming European Union regulations banning the importation of commodities produced on land recently deforested. Exporters say that problems with the system may slow down purchases and deliveries for the season 2026/27, increasing the risk of disruptions in supply through November. Ivory Coast exports?about 40 percent of the world's cacao and disruptions in its exports could affect cocoa prices. From January 1, 2027, the EU's antideforestation regulations will be in effect and require that commodities like cocoa are fully traceable to their origin. From the start of 2026/27 on September 1, all purchases of cocoa must be made using an electronic producer card. The card allows cocoa to be tracked throughout the supply chain and is verified that it meets?the EU sustainability requirements. The Coffee and Cocoa Council has been promoting the new system for months, but today we find that many people are still unaware of how to use it. The main problem is that buyers, co-operatives and agents on the ground haven't yet mastered?new digital tools for purchasing and tracking," stated a director of a European export firm in Abidjan. Exporters reported that many cooperatives and agents still had not received the equipment. This was slowing down deals in rural cocoa growing areas. Our suppliers do not have payment terminals, bags or seals for rural purchases. "The CCC did not provide all the equipment needed, which is prolonging purchasing times and causing delays in deliveries," said the director of another European export company based in Abidjan. The CCC announced that it had finished setting up payment terminals, and was now distributing equipment in accordance with the previous season's purchases. It claimed to have purchased 20,000 new terminals. CCC Director Yves Brahima Kone admitted that there were some problems, but said they weren't serious. We expect that sales will pick up in the future, and we will work out any problems that arise. We'll be there in a few months.
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Fire disables several merchant ships in the Gulf of Oman and Gulf of Qatar
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said that several merchant vessels?in northern Gulf?and Gulf?of?Oman?were hit by disabling?fire during military activity overnight in the area. The UKMTO, a British-affiliated organization that is closely associated with the?navy, said it could not confirm any 'casualties' or?environmental impact. UKMTO also reported another incident, 'on Wednesday, 24 nautical mile from Port Rashid in the United Arab Emirates. The report said that a vessel?was sighted listing at anchor, possibly as a result of an attack from an unknown projectile. U.S. Central Command forces attacked five Iranian crude oil tanks on Tuesday after two days of?attempted rocket attacks against a U.S. Navy ship. Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced on Wednesday that they had attacked two U.S. vessels in the Gulf and eight oil tanks as a response to U.S. attacks?on Iranian tankers. The Guards claimed that the 10 vessels had attempted to cross an area of the Strait of Hormuz they described as being "prohibited" and "unsafe".
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Saudi Arabia lifts alert for southern city after Houthi strike
Saudi Arabia's Civil Defense lifted the alert they had issued in the southern city Khamis Mushait on Wednesday. A day earlier, Houthi attacks in Khamis Mushait and?three other cities nearby injured 73 people and ignited?oil? installations. On Tuesday, Yemen's Houthis who are aligned with Iran struck an airbase at Khamis Mushait as well as oil infrastructure in nearby cities. This was one of the largest attacks on Saudi Arabia since the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran in February. Saudi authorities have not provided?details' for the reasons why Wednesday's alert was issued in Khamis Mushait. The fighting between Saudi Arabian and the 'Houthis' has intensified in recent months. This has raised fears that a wider conflict will return after a truce brokered by the U.N. in 2022, which largely ended years of war. Saudi Arabia is the leader of an Arab coalition backing a government based in Yemen’s south that was forced out of Sanaa 12 years ago by the Houthis. The conflict is now a part of a wider regional war. Both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are close allies with Iran. In July, the Houthis announced a naval blockade in the Red Sea against Saudi Arabia. This prompted the Saudi-led Coalition to attack?what they said were Houthi Military Facilities in Yemen. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched an offensive in recent days on Houthi-held territories after the group tried to advance against government positions. The government claims it is aiming to recapture the entire Houthi-held area. Al Masirah TV of the Houthi group, citing its health ministry, reported that Saudi airstrikes on Yemen's Al Jawf in the last two days had killed at least '21 people. Saudi Arabia has neither announced nor confirmed that it is carrying out attacks?there. Saudi Arabia described the Houthi attacks as a dangerous escalate, and the Saudi-led coalition said they would take steps to prevent further attacks. The Houthis claim that their attacks are a response to Saudi Arabia's escalation of violence in Yemen.
Opening Hormuz was the easy part. Bousso: Restoring oil flow is not the easy part
The sporadic shipping through the Strait of Hormuz highlights the uncertainty that hangs over the world's most critical oil and natural gas chokepoint. One thing is certain: even if all the guns are silenced, it will take years to restore the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-war level.
Iran announced on Saturday it would tighten control of the strait as a response to an?U.S. Blockade of Iranian tankers. Fired at several vessels. Warned?mariners about the closure. It was just hours after Tehran had announced a temporary "reopening" amid a 10-day ceasefire. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that negotiations were in progress and threatened to resume military action should shipping be disrupted once again. After the U.S. and Israeli aerial bombing of Iran began on February 28, Tehran effectively closed down the strait. Traffic through the strait, which normally transports around a fifth global oil and natural gas supplies, has been reduced to a trickle since then. Immediate impact was severe. The Gulf has been unable to release around 13 million barrels of oil per day and 300 million cubic metres of LNG per day, forcing oil producers to close refineries, LNG plants, and oil fields. This has impacted economies in Asia and Europe. Fighting has caused damage to the energy infrastructure and diplomatic relations in the region.
How will the recovery unfold, and at what point can the industry expect to return to pre-war levels of operation?
THE RELIEF RUSH
The speed of recovery depends not only on the diplomacy between Washington, D.C., and Tehran?but also on logistics and availability of tanker insurance, freight rates, and the willingness of the shipowners risking the passage.
According to Kpler, the first tankers leaving the Middle East are the 260 vessels that have already sailed into the Gulf. They carry 170 million barrels?of oil and 1.2 million tons of LNG.
The majority of these initial cargoes will likely be shipped to Asia. This region normally receives about 80% Gulf oil exports, and 90% of LNG.
After these vessels leave, over 300 empty oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman will slowly move into the Gulf to load terminals like Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura or Iraq's Basrah Oil Terminal.
The first thing they will do is empty the onshore storage tanks that grew rapidly during the shutdown of 'Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, commercial crude storage in Gulf is currently?at around 262 million barrels. This is the equivalent of twenty days of interrupted production.
However, the logistics of tanker transport will continue to slow down any full-scale recovery in energy flows. A trip from the Middle East up to India's West Coast, for instance, usually takes 20 days. The longer-haul routes, such as those to China and Japan, can take up to two months.
Finding enough tankers can be difficult. Many are tangled up in the shipping of oil and LNG between Americas and Asia, which can take as long as 40 days.
Even under benign conditions, a full rebalancing and return to the pre-war rhythms of Gulf loading operations will take eight to twelve weeks.
CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM
Saudi Aramco, the United Arab Emirates ADNOC and other producers will need to restart production at oil fields and refineries that were closed during the fighting.
This will require careful coordination and the return of thousands skilled workers, contractors, and other professionals who were evacuated due to the conflict. The speed of recovery will be determined by the amount of storage available at coastal terminals. This creates a feedback loop that links upstream and downstream activity.
The IEA estimates around half of Gulf oil fields and gas reservoirs retain enough pressure to return production to pre-war levels?within two weeks. Another 30% of the oil and gas fields could return to pre-war output?within two weeks.
The remaining 20%, or roughly 2,5 to 3 million bpd, faces far more difficult technical challenges. Some fields may take several months to recover due to low reservoir pressure, damaged machinery and power supply issues. Repairing major energy assets such as Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Hub, where 17% of its capacity was affected, could take five years. It could take up to five years to repair some complex and ageing wells in Iraq and Kuwait.
Drilling new wells in the region could offset any persistent supply losses, but this process would take at least one year and require an improvement of security conditions.
Iraq and Kuwait are expected to lift force majeure declarations once the backlog of tankers is cleared and oilfields resume a steady production. These clauses allow exporters suspend deliveries in uncontrollable situations such as war.
Even if the most optimistic scenario is realized - that peace talks are successful, no new conflicts occur and infrastructure damage is not as bad as feared – a return to full pre-war operations will take years.
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(source: Reuters)